Quote:
Originally Posted by Truenorth00
How so? We aren't exactly facilitating Chinese imports of EVs. I don't see any actual Chinese brands here, like you see in Europe. The majority of EVs sold in Canada have been North American or European made. And it's likely to stay that way for a while. I expect our government will follow suit on tariffs too. Either this government or the next.
What I worry about is the survival of these companies in the long term. They have a high dependence on both the Chinese market and international markets for their profitability and even their survivability. If they are restricted to just their home market, they are going to have a rough go, and their products are going to keep getting worse. And as a consequence, we as consumers, are going to get subpar products and will be forced to buy them to keep them alive. All because they made shit decisions in pursuit of quarterly profits and refused to develop the technological, industrial and talent base necessary to compete with the Chinese.
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How so? Well you’ve spent the past year convincing us that the OEMS cannot possibly survive the market competition from the vaunted China, and that China will find a way into the Canadian market and will out compete all EV competition with their attractive, low-priced, high-quality EVs. What else are we to assume?
Mind you, non-Chinese makers are making huge investments in Canadian mining and manufacturing, so I don’t think it’s a foregone conclusion. As far as sizeable markets go, the US is a pretty big one, with Canada piggybacking as always. Japan’s market is not so small, either. One has to wonder how well Chinese EVs will be embraced in South Korea as well, though I’m sure you have data on that. Before China started sprouting the newly-rich class on the back of artificially cheap manufacturing, they weren’t much of a force in the car market, and I suspect that the markets mentioned above might go a long way toward keeping many OEMs afloat while the market evolves. It’s also hard to say how well their stuff will sell in Europe in the event that they become a larger threat to world peace in the not so distant future (i.e. Taiwan… you know they are itching to make a move).
Summing it all up, we’re still in the speculation stage, and will be for awhile. There are a lot of things going on behind the scenes, that you and I don’t see, and despite your waving them off, the OEMs have a lot of smart people working their tails off to catch up to the upcoming government mandates that are looming a little more than a decade out (two standard development cycles in normal, unaccelerated times). They are somewhat arbitrary deadlines that I’m thinking will be adjusted, but they are there at the moment and nothing can be assumed.
FWIW, I also think you give the difficulty of making EVs a little too much emphasis. Sure there are some hurdles to overcome, and the technology is evolving quickly (which will actually be an advantage for the OEMs), but once you get there you are there. Every aspect of EVs that don’t involve batteries, drivetrain (much simpler than ICE), and specific software is a carryover in terms of building vehicles. The larger challenge is making both types of vehicles during the changeover, which the Canadian government should be sympathetic to, unless they want their auto industry controlled by China.
It’s not over yet, but it will prove to be interesting indeed.
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