What will Austin of the 2020s look like?

[Riverranchdrone]

Originally Posted by the Genral

Its already trending upward. I can speak to the northern end. First, the bats. We all know about the huge colonies under the Congress Bridge and the half huge colony under the I35 overpass at McNeil in Round Rock. I'm seeing more and more bats in the overpasses at I35 and Wells Branch and I35 / Howard Lane. Which brings me to the homeless. I pass them almost every day under the overpasses at I35 / Parmer, Howard, Wells Branch and Grand Avenue. There is a rather large camp under the overpass at Howard and a smaller at Grand Ave. I see the regulars, but there always seem to be new faces almost daily. They pan handle in shifts. Not long ago there were monthly clean sweeps where trucks would come in and clean up the mess and the police would clear them out. Not anymore. I talk to a few of them and met a newbie to the Howard overpass camp. Her name is Tammy. She frequents our recycle dumpster daily. Her camp is near a Home Depot and a Walmart. On any given day you can count almost 20 shopping carts from both those stores. There are a growing number of tents and cardboard shanties all butted up against each other. Tammy said she left the tough competition of Downtown to the "greener pastures in the burbs and beyond".
As these homeless camps continue to grow, in plain sight, its obvious that the larger they get, the safer they feel and the less any city officials know what to do with them, so they are basically left alone, and then because the population and traffic continues to grow away from downtown, the success of pan handling seems to be sustainable with less competition than downtown.
But as the Howard overpass camp fills up, the other overpasses up the road will take on the overflows. I think the word is out that nobody messes with them up here, so hear they come and will continue to come. There are literally homeless pan handlers on every intersection on 183 to Cedar Park and from Parmer, to even Georgetown. During the 2020s, the scale of this will become a crisis and they may need to open up a shelter and soup kitchen somewhere between Pflugerville and Round Rock. Yet no one seems to be talking about this...yet. They will.

That one under IH35 and howard is getting huge. They have tents walls and furniture. These things get big until the police take them down. When I lived off of north Lamar there was a big one that grew behind Thomas buffet. It got big then split into to and it was like lord of the flies. Police eventually moved the camps.

[wwmiv]

Originally Posted by the Genral

I'm not sure what kind of fight would or could be put up if the US Gov't decides to close the base at Mabry. Unless its not a decision that's up to them. Bergstrom AFB was shut down so I'm just assuming Camp Mabry could be vulnerable to consolidation somewhere else since it is relatively small and cost cutting in that area of government is always ongoing, regardless of historic value. Clean up at Bergstrom and the chemical stations around the old IBM plant was expensive but doable. Opening up 80+ acres just northwest of downtown for development would be financially huge and worth the expense to someone. Anyway, not being vested either way, that's just my prediction, and wouldn't it be a whopper if my prophecy did indeed come to fruition??? I've been waiting for the proverbial shoe to drop at Mabry for years as unlikely as it may seem.
A lot can change in 10 years.

Mabry is State Guard and has nothing to do with the Federal military branches.

[electricron]

Originally Posted by ahealy

Of course we can glance at NY, Miami, Chicago and LA for trends...but what will Austin spearhead (if anything) for the 20s? Out with boxy silhouettes and in with....?

There is little chance that 1% of Austin will be torn down and rebuilt short of a tornado ripping through the city. So Austin will look mostly (like 99%) the same.

Although it only takes one skyscraper to change its skyline. But that's just a few buildings in a decade compared to hundreds of thousands of other buildings.

[Syndic]

Change is steady but not as fast as some here are suggesting. Austin won't triple in size. Most of the buildings will be the same. What will change:

The big building projects will give our skyline a fuller, taller, more muscular look.
Waterloo Park will be completed and reenergized as an events venue.
The UT basketball/events center will be completed, hosting lots of shows.
The Frank Erwin Center will be no more.
Medical school buildings will go up in its place resulting in a real, strong medical district and more of a "valley effect" with the new apartment buildings east of 35.
Rainey Street will be further transformed into high rises.
Mueller will be completely fleshed out with a busy market district.
McKalla Place stadium will be completed and Austin FC will be competing.
The IBM site around the Domain will be further developed, expanding the "2nd downtown" feel.
The Grove will liven up that area of West Austin similar to Mueller.
Highland will actually become an interesting area, gentrifying the blight around there.
Our property values and taxes will rise.

[downsouthman1]

Originally Posted by the Genral

Its already trending upward. I can speak to the northern end. First, the bats. We all know about the huge colonies under the Congress Bridge and the half huge colony under the I35 overpass at McNeil in Round Rock. I'm seeing more and more bats in the overpasses at I35 and Wells Branch and I35 / Howard Lane. Which brings me to the homeless. I pass them almost every day under the overpasses at I35 / Parmer, Howard, Wells Branch and Grand Avenue. There is a rather large camp under the overpass at Howard and a smaller at Grand Ave. I see the regulars, but there always seem to be new faces almost daily. They pan handle in shifts. Not long ago there were monthly clean sweeps where trucks would come in and clean up the mess and the police would clear them out. Not anymore. I talk to a few of them and met a newbie to the Howard overpass camp. Her name is Tammy. She frequents our recycle dumpster daily. Her camp is near a Home Depot and a Walmart. On any given day you can count almost 20 shopping carts from both those stores. There are a growing number of tents and cardboard shanties all butted up against each other. Tammy said she left the tough competition of Downtown to the "greener pastures in the burbs and beyond".
As these homeless camps continue to grow, in plain sight, its obvious that the larger they get, the safer they feel and the less any city officials know what to do with them, so they are basically left alone, and then because the population and traffic continues to grow away from downtown, the success of pan handling seems to be sustainable with less competition than downtown.
But as the Howard overpass camp fills up, the other overpasses up the road will take on the overflows. I think the word is out that nobody messes with them up here, so hear they come and will continue to come. There are literally homeless pan handlers on every intersection on 183 to Cedar Park and from Parmer, to even Georgetown. During the 2020s, the scale of this will become a crisis and they may need to open up a shelter and soup kitchen somewhere between Pflugerville and Round Rock. Yet no one seems to be talking about this...yet. They will.

I frequently drive under the Wells and Howard underpasses & have also observed these camps growing. Especially Howard. That's a big one that is completely left alone by the authorities.

[NYC2ATX]

With any place, I always start thinking about the overall urban fabric and feel of the city. I think the most fundamental change to that is going to be the continuing, possibly expanding, stream of new multifamily projects. Not only will these fill out areas where we are already seeing growth, but in other key nodes where multifamily and mixed-use projects will suddenly seem more viable. We are seeing this already in places like Mueller and the Domain, which proved that there is an appetite in the city for creating new centers of mixed and higher densities from scratch on larger underutilized land tracts. Likewise, East Austin and West Campus have shown that underdeveloped central neighborhoods with established street grids can also actually manifest into walkable districts.

This is going to be key for future growth because it's going to balance the inevitable sprawl in the suburbs that will naturally accompany metro area growth. I feel it isn't so bold to say that most if not nearly all of the strip malls in the central parts of the city will disappear, with corridors of 3- to 8-story mid-rises becoming the norm on the major avenues and boulevards. South Lamar is the most extant example of this now, but North Lamar, Burnet, East Riverside and several East Austin arteries aren't far behind. It's justifiable to predict that most major cross streets in both North and South Austin (Anderson, William Cannon, Koenig, etc.) will follow the same pattern in time.

As others have touched upon, forthcoming large-tract developments like the Grove, Highland, St. Elmo will bleed down nearby major streets transforming them with this new widespread mid-rise density, and connect with the others. I'm almost picturing neurons connecting, nodes and narrow corridors in between them. Of course this will leave some of the established low-density areas in between as enclaves, and some will retrench and new historic districts and downzonings may proliferate, but it would be up to, and behoove the city the push through land-use reforms that allow more "missing-middle housing in these neighborhoods, roughly from 4- to 20-unit apartment buldings. This would allow more balance between the busiest and most quiet communities.

The success of these developments and the spread outward will have developers taking second looks at activity centers and corridors that did not previously demand such density. How about Southpark Meadows or Colony Park, Brodie or Far West, or even the area nearest the airport as it expands. Further, as these hypothetical development hotbeds shed their car-centric images, buildings of 12, 15 or even 20 floors could begin to appear in more established (by then) areas that are developing now.

I think we all can agree the south metro in Hays County will look like Williamson County does now. However, it's not so farfetched to also expect some taller buildings to appear in certain parts of the north metro. Likely, in a few key downtowns, Round Rock and Georgetown, some core corridors, like Bell Boulevard in Cedar Park, and the Lakeline area...as well as around 35. Speaking of freeways, while the major arteries in the city core will stay as they are aside from the addition of toll//HOV lanes, you can bet they will expand them outward and also likely lay down another partial ring road beyond 45/130. I also think the wealth surge with more and more jobs descending upon Parmer Lane from Robinson Ranch to Samsung and beyond is going to up the price point and quality of developments in southern Williamson County.

In conclusion, I've thought about it a little. Truth is, though, because this is happening now in history, and that this influx of population is mostly millennials, Austin will eventually look strikingly different than any other city in Texas...because what we want from the places we live is vastly different than previous generations. I've always called this city a "millennial darling," with good reason.

[maru2501]

rooting for public transit and some denser housing models

[Maximusx1]

Originally Posted by NYC2ATX

With any place, I always start thinking about the overall urban fabric and feel of the city. I think the most fundamental change to that is going to be the continuing, possibly expanding, stream of new multifamily projects. Not only will these fill out areas where we are already seeing growth, but in other key nodes where multifamily and mixed-use projects will suddenly seem more viable. We are seeing this already in places like Mueller and the Domain, which proved that there is an appetite in the city for creating new centers of mixed and higher densities from scratch on larger underutilized land tracts. Likewise, East Austin and West Campus have shown that underdeveloped central neighborhoods with established street grids can also actually manifest into walkable districts.

This is going to be key for future growth because it's going to balance the inevitable sprawl in the suburbs that will naturally accompany metro area growth. I feel it isn't so bold to say that most if not nearly all of the strip malls in the central parts of the city will disappear, with corridors of 3- to 8-story mid-rises becoming the norm on the major avenues and boulevards. South Lamar is the most extant example of this now, but North Lamar, Burnet, East Riverside and several East Austin arteries aren't far behind. It's justifiable to predict that most major cross streets in both North and South Austin (Anderson, William Cannon, Koenig, etc.) will follow the same pattern in time.

As others have touched upon, forthcoming large-tract developments like the Grove, Highland, St. Elmo will bleed down nearby major streets transforming them with this new widespread mid-rise density, and connect with the others. I'm almost picturing neurons connecting, nodes and narrow corridors in between them. Of course this will leave some of the established low-density areas in between as enclaves, and some will retrench and new historic districts and downzonings may proliferate, but it would be up to, and behoove the city the push through land-use reforms that allow more "missing-middle housing in these neighborhoods, roughly from 4- to 20-unit apartment buldings. This would allow more balance between the busiest and most quiet communities.

The success of these developments and the spread outward will have developers taking second looks at activity centers and corridors that did not previously demand such density. How about Southpark Meadows or Colony Park, Brodie or Far West, or even the area nearest the airport as it expands. Further, as these hypothetical development hotbeds shed their car-centric images, buildings of 12, 15 or even 20 floors could begin to appear in more established (by then) areas that are developing now.

I think we all can agree the south metro in Hays County will look like Williamson County does now. However, it's not so farfetched to also expect some taller buildings to appear in certain parts of the north metro. Likely, in a few key downtowns, Round Rock and Georgetown, some core corridors, like Bell Boulevard in Cedar Park, and the Lakeline area...as well as around 35. Speaking of freeways, while the major arteries in the city core will stay as they are aside from the addition of toll//HOV lanes, you can bet they will expand them outward and also likely lay down another partial ring road beyond 45/130. I also think the wealth surge with more and more jobs descending upon Parmer Lane from Robinson Ranch to Samsung and beyond is going to up the price point and quality of developments in southern Williamson County.

In conclusion, I've thought about it a little. Truth is, though, because this is happening now in history, and that this influx of population is mostly millennials, Austin will eventually look strikingly different than any other city in Texas...because what we want from the places we live is vastly different than previous generations. I've always called this city a "millennial darling," with good reason.

^^^ Very, very good post. I think about the neurons analogy often.

[AusTex]

Originally Posted by NYC2ATX

This is going to be key for future growth ... corridors of 3- to 8-story mid-rises becoming the norm on the major avenues and boulevards....It's justifiable to predict that most major cross streets in both North and South Austin (Anderson, William Cannon, Koenig, etc.) will follow the same pattern in time.

I was just shown a City of Austin notice (Case Number SP-2018-0491C) that the Chase Bank on the corner of Anderson and Northcross Dr is being redeveloped into multi-family mixed use. The site project name; 2711 West Anderson Lane, includes the land on Foster Ln. next to the Firestone as well. I am not sure when this is happening, however this was the second notice given to the residences living in the apartments across Foster Ln.

[austlar1]

I think how Austin looks in the next decade or two will depend on whether a large number of dual income middle class families with children opt to stay in the center city (six or seven mile radius from downtown/the zone of current gentrificaton) rather than flee to the suburbs when it is time to have kids or send them to school. If there is a demand for family housing in mid rise apartment and condo communities, Austin will start to look a lot different than it does now. It is a fairly common housing model in places like Canada, but, so far, there has not been much of that in most US cities other than NY or maybe LA. Unless that happens here in Austin, the demand for vertical housing will confined to singles, empty-nesters, and young couples with few or no children. The demand is strong from those segments, but it won't radically transform the appearance of the city. Something like this (Vancouver, BC) would be rather nice though. Guess it doesn't hurt to dream.

https://www.google.com/maps/place/Va....1207375?hl=en

[drummer]

I do think there will be taller development (or at least more dense, but taller than what is currently there) in Cedar Park and Round Rock, at least. I think parts of Pflugerville will see some, but it will largely remain the same unless something dramatic happens. Georgetown could also see more density since it already has a downtown, of sorts. By and large, the suburbs will continue to explode with nuclei of denser development, a la what is happening in some pockets of DFW outside of historic downtown areas, etc.