Planning for shrinking cities

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

We're learning that suburbs aren't as safe as people think because there's inevitable concentration at service points (grocery store, gas station, etc.):

https://www.citylab.com/life/2020/03...-risks/607783/

Turns out that the safest places to be are smaller metros, not the suburbs of large metros.



Source: https://www.citylab.com/equity/2020/...l-data/609394/

That still shows that the burbs of big cities are two and a half times as safe as the cities themselves.

I do not think inner cities will suffer like they did in the 70s and 80s but the really good 21st century run they had until recently may be over for a good while.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by Acajack

That still shows that the burbs of big cities are two and a half times as safe as the cities themselves.

I do not think inner cities will suffer like they did in the 70s and 80s but the really good 21st century run they had until recently may be over for a good while.

How much of this simply reflects poverty in US inner cities? I'd guess a lot of it comes down to factors like whether or not you work a physical job and how many people are in your household (tons of workers packed into an apartment would be bad).

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by someone123

How much of this simply reflects poverty in US inner cities? I'd guess a lot of it comes down to factors like whether or not you work a physical job and how many people are in your household (tons of workers packed into an apartment would be bad).

No doubt true. But this will not help to convince many new people who can (more or less) afford to live wherever they want, that inner cities are choice places to live.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by Acajack

No doubt true. But this will not help to convince many new people who can (more or less) afford to live wherever they want, that inner cities are choice places to live.

Another reality is that there isn't a whole lot of urban fabric in Canada that's similar to living in Manhattan or inner London or Paris. A lot of what's considered inner city Vancouver still has plentiful outdoor space and minimal foot traffic.

I do know people who live downtown (in the middle of a bunch of highrise buildings) and they were a bit stressed out at the density of people outside. However, the impact of covid here so far has been minimal and the anxiety around being in public seems to have dropped considerably. It turns out that being a few meters away from somebody outside isn't a very big risk.

One big cutoff is whether you have a car or rely on transit. Stuff like car sharing doesn't look that appealing during a pandemic.

It's also possible a shift to working from home for office type jobs will reduce the pressure of commute times on housing choices somewhat.

But I think we have a risk of "overfitting", thinking that our concerns of the day will be the factors determining what will happen 2-10 years from now. It's still unclear how covid will go but so far I don't think the downside has been dramatic enough in most/all of Canada to have a really big impact. The people who want to live in a city are still going to want that and there will still be a payoff to being in a higher density environment.

[ssiguy]

As I stated before, I don't think we are going to see any big movement to smaller centres especially those under 50k.

Yes, the people can work from home like they can in bigger centres and certainly enjoy much cheaper housing but they lack the essential service that the mid-size cities offer...........universities, restaurants, nightlife, entertainment, healthcare, school options, government services, shopping, transit, different neighbourhoods and housing options, cultural events, and good transportation links. All these things are available in the mid-size cities without the crushing real estate/rental prices and grinding traffic and long commutes.

[Truenorth00]

So about that falling immigration...

https://globalnews.ca/news/7054996/o...ss-revamp/amp/

[Corndogger]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

So about that falling immigration...

https://globalnews.ca/news/7054996/o...ss-revamp/amp/

Who said there would be less demand to immigrate to Canada?

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Corndogger

Who said there would be less demand to immigrate to Canada?

The poster who started this thread. And said we need to plan for shrinking cities as immigration falls.

[Corndogger]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

The poster who started this thread. And said we need to plan for shrinking cities as immigration falls.

I thought he changed course when it comes to immigration? As for shrinking cities, of course we should plan for that as anything is possible. Some cities could easily shrink while others will grow.

[manny_santos]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

As I stated before, I don't think we are going to see any big movement to smaller centres especially those under 50k.

Yes, the people can work from home like they can in bigger centres and certainly enjoy much cheaper housing but they lack the essential service that the mid-size cities offer...........universities, restaurants, nightlife, entertainment, healthcare, school options, government services, shopping, transit, different neighbourhoods and housing options, cultural events, and good transportation links. All these things are available in the mid-size cities without the crushing real estate/rental prices and grinding traffic and long commutes.

I know myself, I’ve been back in London since the pandemic began and I remember now why I left that city in the first place. After living most of the past decade in larger cities (and one smaller one with a vibrant downtown), I’ve found the adjustment back to a car-centred, big box, suburban chain restaurant lifestyle to be very difficult. It was worth giving London another chance but I could never live here long term, and I’m looking forward to moving back to a large urban centre in the next few weeks.

London is a great city if you like quiet streets and driving everywhere, but that isn’t for me.

[ssiguy]

As I said before, Canada will continue to be an immigrant draw and after this crisis is over immigration rates will rise although I certainly don't see the previous numbers coming back for many years due to health concerns and high unemployment.

That said, whether one thinks that our population will continue to grow or not is NOT the point. Every single city in this country bases it's urban planning on the farcical notion that they will continue to grow in population indefinitely which is highly irresponsible, a grotesque waste of financial resources, and environmentally degrading.

Despite our rapid growth of last year, there were still 30 CAs and 1 CMA that suffered from population decline or stagnation. This is not a hypothetical question but rather one that is already reality that we have yet to even acknowledge little alone doing anything about.

[Bcasey25raptor]

Originally Posted by hipster duck

I think the cost of living in a big city is overestimated, and the cost of living in a small city is underestimated.

I think people are using things like home ownership, specifically of a house (i.e. something with a yard) as the default. This is taking a small town view of what is acceptable housing.

In a large city, it's not considered humiliating to be a professional in your thirties, renting, and even having a roommate. These can bring costs down in a place like Toronto to around $1,000 a month. Because other professional people are renters too, the likelihood of having an ex-con or person at the margins of society who might reneg on rent are relatively low, whereas in a small town that kind of person might be your archetypal roommate.

A lot of what people consider to be acceptable is what they see other people in their social class or peer group doing, not something that provides an objectively more comfortable standard of living, like more space, less density, a bigger yard, homeowning vs. renting etc. Of course, those things are valued by big city people, too, but people in big cities pine for those things less than people in small towns, because there isn't as much social pressure to do so.

When you also include things like ~20% higher salaries in bigger cities, and not needing to own a car (~$1,000 a month), and the cost differential between a city like Toronto and even a "cheap" small city in Southern Ontario shrink dramatically.

This is very true, I live in east Vancouver right beside the Harbour and my rent is only $500 a month because I split the apartment with 2 others, one of the roommates will be moving out leaving just the 2 of us dividing rent in 2 or $800 each.

Utilities are cheap, transit is ample, car sharing is cheaper then driving, overall my living costs are cheap.

Out of a monthly income of only $3200, I pay $500 in rent, $100 in utilities/insurance/Internet split in 3, $120 in cell, $100 for a bus pass, $300 for food, $150 in debt obligations, and honestly thats about it.

So I actually have a lot of excess spending money and live quite comfortably.

Cities including Vancouver aren't really expensive outside of the housing issue, and I prefer to live with a roommate then alone anyway so it's a win win for me.

[Corndogger]

Originally Posted by Bcasey25raptor

This is very true, I live in east Vancouver right beside the Harbour and my rent is only $500 a month because I split the apartment with 2 others, one of the roommates will be moving out leaving just the 2 of us dividing rent in 2 or $800 each.

Utilities are cheap, transit is ample, car sharing is cheaper then driving, overall my living costs are cheap.

Out of a monthly income of only $3200, I pay $500 in rent, $100 in utilities/insurance/Internet split in 3, $120 in cell, $100 for a bus pass, $300 for food, $150 in debt obligations, and honestly thats about it.

So I actually have a lot of excess spending money and live quite comfortably.

Cities including Vancouver aren't really expensive outside of the housing issue, and I prefer to live with a roommate then alone anyway so it's a win win for me.

$120/month for your phone?!

[Nashe]

Originally Posted by Hipster Duck

I think the cost of living in a big city is overestimated, and the cost of living in a small city is underestimated.

I think people are using things like home ownership, specifically of a house (i.e. something with a yard) as the default. This is taking a small town view of what is acceptable housing.

I agree I don't think many will be exchanging big-city for small-city based on just renting, except for the rare case.

Home ownership definitely plays a part. The people I see moving in are people willing to give up big-city living to trade an expensive home for a cheaper one thus going mortgage free or freeing up cash.
The others are going from renting to owning, since the price delta is almost nonexistent.

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by Bcasey25raptor

This is very true, I live in east Vancouver right beside the Harbour and my rent is only $500 a month because I split the apartment with 2 others, one of the roommates will be moving out leaving just the 2 of us dividing rent in 2 or $800 each.

Utilities are cheap, transit is ample, car sharing is cheaper then driving, overall my living costs are cheap.

Out of a monthly income of only $3200, I pay $500 in rent, $100 in utilities/insurance/Internet split in 3, $120 in cell, $100 for a bus pass, $300 for food, $150 in debt obligations, and honestly thats about it.

So I actually have a lot of excess spending money and live quite comfortably.

Cities including Vancouver aren't really expensive outside of the housing issue, and I prefer to live with a roommate then alone anyway so it's a win win for me.

My mortgage is under $600 a month. My taxes are about $150 a month.

I feel that unless you love living the condo life, the big cities isn't for you. I feel many condo dwellers will start considering moving to a house. This is why I feel the large cities will see a slowdown of growth in the next 5 years. How many people went stir crazy inside there 500 sq ft apartment/condo?

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

My mortgage is under $600 a month. My taxes are about $150 a month.

I feel that unless you love living the condo life, the big cities isn't for you. I feel many condo dwellers will start considering moving to a house. This is why I feel the large cities will see a slowdown of growth in the next 5 years. How many people went stir crazy inside there 500 sq ft apartment/condo?

I can definitely see condo dwellers looking for an urban townhouse, if not a house. I've heard horror stroies from friends about residents refusing to get in elevators if there are others in them. How is that going to work when everybody return to their jobs and school? At least in a townhouse you can access the street or garage with no more than one flight of stairs.

[wave46]

Originally Posted by whatnext

I can definitely see condo dwellers looking for an urban townhouse, if not a house. I've heard horror stroies from friends about residents refusing to get in elevators if there are others in them. How is that going to work when everybody return to their jobs and school? At least in a townhouse you can access the street or garage with no more than one flight of stairs.

I think there's a lot of potential for walk-up style buildings in our cities.

They don't need huge footprints, they're small enough that the neighbourhood won't be up in arms about it as they would a 25-storey condo and they increase density without being a huge demand on infrastructure.

Seems like a win-win, no?

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by whatnext

I can definitely see condo dwellers looking for an urban townhouse, if not a house. I've heard horror stroies from friends about residents refusing to get in elevators if there are others in them. How is that going to work when everybody return to their jobs and school? At least in a townhouse you can access the street or garage with no more than one flight of stairs.

This is one of many aspects.

Originally Posted by wave46

I think there's a lot of potential for walk-up style buildings in our cities.

They don't need huge footprints, they're small enough that the neighbourhood won't be up in arms about it as they would a 25-storey condo and they increase density without being a huge demand on infrastructure.

Seems like a win-win, no?

You mean like a lot of old parts of most cities?

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

You mean like a lot of old parts of most cities?

Depends how old. Some of those streetcar suburbs are still not really dense. Just built on grid with lots and houses that can be built.

I've been sort of shopping around in the NCR. Really happy to see some really nice walk-up townhomes coming up. No wasted space on a front lawn. Common pedestrian alley in front. Road alley in the back. These become less of a compromise on space while still adding a ton of density.

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Depends how old. Some of those streetcar suburbs are still not really dense. Just built on grid with lots and houses that can be built.

I've been sort of shopping around in the NCR. Really happy to see some really nice walk-up townhomes coming up. No wasted space on a front lawn. Common pedestrian alley in front. Road alley in the back. These become less of a compromise on space while still adding a ton of density.

Having a 1-2m set back from the sidewalk can make the city more livable as people can have a small lawn or a colourful garden out front. Some of the nicest old areas have a small front yard and they usually are beautified.