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  #8421  
Old Posted Feb 17, 2020, 8:01 PM
twister244 twister244 is offline
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Originally Posted by TakeFive View Post
Thanks for reading. I understand the timing here but perhaps you missed the study of Chicago which changed their zoning in 2013 and 2015 so that's 5 to 7 years of history. Perhaps if you had read the whole linked piece you'd have a more realistic assessment.
It's worth noting Chicago is a bit of an anomaly in terms of large urban areas in America these days. Their population has been stagnant (even slightly declining) with a huge public debt burden that has lead to increased local taxes, etc. Might not be a good comparison.
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  #8422  
Old Posted Feb 17, 2020, 8:07 PM
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wong21fr wong21fr is offline
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Originally Posted by twister244 View Post
It's worth noting Chicago is a bit of an anomaly in terms of large urban areas in America these days. Their population has been stagnant (even slightly declining) with a huge public debt burden that has lead to increased local taxes, etc. Might not be a good comparison.
Which is a caveat that the author included as well (i.e. the context of the study). He also mentioned something about neighborhood area versus metropolitan area upzonings and the differences on the two.

But, hey, who's actually reading any of this crap that gets posted? Better to write paragraph after paragraph of meandering prose.
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Last edited by wong21fr; Feb 17, 2020 at 8:19 PM.
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  #8423  
Old Posted Feb 17, 2020, 8:18 PM
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A lot of our problems, thread-wise, is that there are many overlapping issues that get easily conflated. Adding clarity would be useful.

First there is differing levels of development. We've discussed adding the missing middle; we've discussed adding medium density in existing residential neighborhoods where current zoning won't allow it. Except it's already being done here and there so even I get confused. Obviously one could add a mix of missing middle and medium density.

There's also specific areas where medium to high density is expected to occur.

Would adding density of any type accommodate additional growth and demand? Yes, of course it would. But adding density won't necessarily go hand in hand with being affordable. For highly desirable areas (or areas likely to become highly desirable) with new allowed development of upscale housing, affordability will be an oxymoron.

Curtis Park, for example, is is not a large area. If you add medium density as apposed to missing middle then presumably due to product type it will be more affordable than merely adding missing middle. This is all common sense but whatever density could be added in Curtis Park is highly unlikely to be considered affordable, at least by most people.

The way to get the most affordable bang for your buck has been better articulated by bunt.
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  #8424  
Old Posted Feb 17, 2020, 8:20 PM
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Originally Posted by twister244 View Post
It's worth noting Chicago is a bit of an anomaly in terms of large urban areas in America these days. Their population has been stagnant (even slightly declining) with a huge public debt burden that has lead to increased local taxes, etc. Might not be a good comparison.
Totally agree outside of the fact the the urban center has been hotter than a firecracker and (many neighborhoods) would be very comparable.

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Originally Posted by wong21fr View Post
Better to write paragraph after paragraph of meandering prose.
Speaking of meandering...
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  #8425  
Old Posted Feb 17, 2020, 8:29 PM
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Totally agree outside of the fact the the urban center has been hotter than a firecracker and (many neighborhoods) would be very comparable.
But those weren't the neighborhoods that were in the study, were they?

Perhaps you might want to admit that you didn't read the paper that is being discussed just yet? Gazed over for an ever so brief summation? Certainly. But having actually read it in depth? Such a claim would be pretty dubious.

An interesting takeaway from the paper is that the market (current and prospective owners) of the properties affected by the upzoning responded almost immediately to the market signal as indicated by the increased value of the land reflecting it's now higher use. However, construction of addition housing supply took a lot longer manifest due to a lack of demand in these submarkets.

Quote:
Speaking of meandering...
I'd go with pithy over meandering.
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  #8426  
Old Posted Feb 17, 2020, 9:01 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wong21fr View Post
But those weren't the neighborhoods that were in the study, were they?

An interesting takeaway from the paper is that the market (current and prospective owners) of the properties affected by the upzoning responded almost immediately to the market signal as indicated by the increased value of the land reflecting it's now higher use. However, construction of addition housing supply took a lot longer manifest due to a lack of demand in these submarkets.

I'd go with pithy over meandering.
Pity the pithy?

I plead the fifth. Impressed that you took the time. That makes at least one of us.

The overriding assumption that I still hold to is that any affordability improvements will be very modest and at the margin. For that matter downtown Denver isn't all that unique to the whole Denver metro area which is much less affordable than it once was.
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  #8427  
Old Posted Feb 17, 2020, 9:11 PM
mhays mhays is online now
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(never mind, others have covered my point)
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  #8428  
Old Posted Feb 17, 2020, 10:12 PM
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Developer plans 1,600 residential units in massive update to Denver's Golden Triangle neighborhood
Feb 17, 2020 By James Rodriguez – Reporter, Denver Business Journal

Not all of this is new to us but's it's fun anyway.
Quote:
Lennar Multifamily Communities, a real estate investment and multifamily development arm of Miami-based homebuilder Lennar Corp. (NYSE: LEN), plans to deliver more than 1,600 residential units to the area surrounding the historic Evans School over the next five to seven years, significantly increasing the residential population of Denver's Golden Triangle neighborhood.

LMC plans to develop a total of five buildings, which are in various stages of development; one is already under construction, while two do not yet have concept plans filed with the city.
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Quote:
The plan is for the projects to integrate with the 5280 Trail, a proposed five-mile loop that would connect downtown to surrounding neighborhoods via urban trails for pedestrians and bikers.

"The real thing for us and for the neighborhood and for Denver is to take the Golden Triangle to a whole new level without ruining the charm it already has," Johnson said.
Afaik, all projects will build to the allowable 'view plane' of 16 to 18 stories.


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  #8429  
Old Posted Feb 18, 2020, 12:38 AM
SirLucasTheGreat SirLucasTheGreat is offline
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Lennar is really going all in on Golden Triangle. I would like to see more of the parking lots on 13th Avenue bite the dust but I suppose that the demand for parking is pretty high with all of the Civic and legal institutions in that area. If we could get some more retail in the neighborhood, that would be great.

On an unrelated note, the X3 site in Arapahoe Square looks like it is pretty much under construction at this time. Excited to see the momentum build there.
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  #8430  
Old Posted Feb 18, 2020, 1:32 AM
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Originally Posted by laniroj View Post
Do you really think City Council would approve a metro district for 25,000 SF of land? Hell, what about a 3 acre parcel of one project? Giant master plans are different than infill, and infill w/o metro districts or PIFs or TIFs account for the vast majority of units we produce. By my logic, it's not possible for the vast majority of land sites in Denver where there's not a single owner that controls hundreds of acres of land.
If you're doing $50-100MM/year, my guess is you're not doing a ton of 25,000 sf projects. And I'd also guess the environmental is not driving that lack of interest. It's just not worth the effort for the returns.
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  #8431  
Old Posted Feb 18, 2020, 1:35 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TakeFive View Post
Developer plans 1,600 residential units in massive update to Denver's Golden Triangle neighborhood
Feb 17, 2020 By James Rodriguez – Reporter, Denver Business Journal

Not all of this is new to us but's it's fun anyway.

Walk the Talk

Afaik, all projects will build to the allowable 'view plane' of 16 to 18 stories.


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Oh look, a national developer going through the painful effort to assemble enough of that unavailable land to make development at scale worthwhile. Good for them.
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  #8432  
Old Posted Feb 18, 2020, 3:12 AM
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TakeFive TakeFive is offline
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Originally Posted by twister244 View Post
It's worth noting Chicago is a bit of an anomaly in terms of large urban areas in America these days. Their population has been stagnant (even slightly declining) with a huge public debt burden that has lead to increased local taxes, etc. Might not be a good comparison.
Off-topic piece about Chicago but to your point.
Quote:
Chicago saw its population decline in 2018, the fourth year in a row. Since 2015, almost 50,000 black residents have left.
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  #8433  
Old Posted Feb 18, 2020, 4:23 AM
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Originally Posted by bulldurhamer View Post
Has anybody here bothered to search for rental options under $1000 in 80205? Here’s a hint. There are loads of them and the prices are dropping.

But let’s not let that get in the way of some groupthink demanding change!

Turns out your waitresses can live wherever they want, despite the loads if misinformation you’ll read fipir zhere.
A quick HotPads search for zip code 80205 with the only filter set for $1000 and under, generates 4 results:

21st St #18, Denver, CO 80205
Studio with 270 sq.ft. Shared laundry, no dishwasher and no mention of heating and air.
Cost is $835/mo

N Gaylord St, Denver, CO 80205
One Bedroom with 600 sq.ft.
Shared laundry, A/C, no dishwasher, no pets, no utilities included in rent.
Cost is $1000/mo

N Franklin St, Denver, CO 80205
For rent is only the master bedroom of an occupied 3 bedroom townhouse. So basically someone is looking for a roommate that will rent a bedroom and pay for their mortgage.
Cost is $1000/mo

Downing Street, Denver, CO 80205
Studio with 215 sq.ft. (my livingroom is 220 sq.ft. for perspective). A/C, electric heat, no dishwasher,
No on-site laundry, no utilities included.
Cost is $800/mo

That's it! That is everything listed in ZIP Code 80205 for under $1000/mo. I wouldn't consider this to be boatloads of options. In fact, I don't consider any of these to be an option at all. For those who think these are options, four lucky people will be able to move into ZIP Code 80205!
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  #8434  
Old Posted Feb 18, 2020, 5:03 AM
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Originally Posted by SnyderBock View Post
That's it! That is everything listed in ZIP Code 80205 for under $1000/mo. I wouldn't consider this to be boatloads of options. In fact, I don't consider any of these to be an option at all. For those who think these are options, four lucky people will be able to move into ZIP Code 80205!
Why are we searching 80205? To me, affordability does not mean everybody can live in whatever zip code they want.

Rent.com, do a search for under $1,000, 1 bedroom (because screw studios), I get 57 properties. And these are apartments, not roommate situations. Not a ton, many in the burbs, and none in the fancy-pants central Denver neighborhoods. But they do apparently exist, and look fine... Hey, I could apparently still get close to $1000 in my old Harvey Park apartment.
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  #8435  
Old Posted Feb 18, 2020, 6:44 AM
mhays mhays is online now
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Proximity is pretty important. If you're renting <$1,000, there's a good chance you don't have a car. If there's not at least a bus running every 15 minutes, life would be pretty hard.

Decent housing prices are important in the core too. It can be very hard for the free market to provide that in the core, but it can be done with cheap land (plentiful zoned capacity), low/no parking, and small units....workforce-affordable at least, and livable for a single or couple.
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  #8436  
Old Posted Feb 18, 2020, 7:33 AM
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Originally Posted by mhays View Post
Proximity is pretty important. If you're renting <$1,000, there's a good chance you don't have a car. If there's not at least a bus running every 15 minutes, life would be pretty hard.

Decent housing prices are important in the core too. It can be very hard for the free market to provide that in the core, but it can be done with cheap land (plentiful zoned capacity), low/no parking, and small units....workforce-affordable at least, and livable for a single or couple.
I just checked Poets Row (prime location) rents which start at $975 - Oops, that's outdated and now they start at $1165. The Quayle, a recently renovated historic hotel has rents from $975- $1044. I believe that's income restricted.

Denver does have a credible amount of designated affordable housing but they likely maintain a waiting list.

Denver still 'suffers' from being one of the most popular cities in attracting young movers and with unemployment at 2.3%, it's not hard to score a job. It's fair to say they don't have 'cheap dirt' in prime areas to accommodate cheaper housing. There are pockets where more affordable housing is on the drawing board but it just takes time and it's never enough.
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  #8437  
Old Posted Feb 18, 2020, 1:00 PM
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Originally Posted by bunt_q View Post
Why are we searching 80205? To me, affordability does not mean everybody can live in whatever zip code they want.

Rent.com, do a search for under $1,000, 1 bedroom (because screw studios), I get 57 properties. And these are apartments, not roommate situations. Not a ton, many in the burbs, and none in the fancy-pants central Denver neighborhoods. But they do apparently exist, and look fine... Hey, I could apparently still get close to $1000 in my old Harvey Park apartment.
We should live in walkable neighborhoods, close to where we work, and not be car-dependent, but only if we're wealthy. Got it.
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  #8438  
Old Posted Feb 18, 2020, 3:27 PM
laniroj laniroj is offline
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Originally Posted by TakeFive View Post
Thanks for reading. I understand the timing here but perhaps you missed the study of Chicago which changed their zoning in 2013 and 2015 so that's 5 to 7 years of history. Perhaps if you had read the whole linked piece you'd have a more realistic assessment...
Chucklehead, I did read it. A couple of neighborhood upzonings has nothing to do with what we're talking about, which is a city-wide upzoning. That aside, the city-wide upzoning largely hasn't been tried in the USA. We'll see how it turns out in MN, WA, OR. Until then, all any of us have are opinions and each opinion is just as valid as the next though hopefully those opinions evolve with new information over time. Mine is that we should try something different and see if it works. Yours is essentially that we should keep doing it the same and expect a different result.

In any case, many of us would just like a change to see if it works.
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  #8439  
Old Posted Feb 18, 2020, 3:34 PM
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I could have sworn bunt_q was complaining a couple of years ago that Denver was turning into a playground for the rich. I guess now that he's got his, everyone else can fuck off to Aurora.

I really don't get the whole notion that we don't have the right to live where we want. Sure we do, this is America, so Downtown and the surrounding neighborhoods shouldn't be limited to the 1 percenters. Yes, everyone still has to live within their means and trade certain things like lots of space, a back yard, and a garage, for a short commute and restaurants within walking distance. The idea that the richest country in the world shot itself in the foot (and the rest of the world, environmentally) by subsidizing and promoting the most inefficient land uses and transportation infrastructure is just sad. The fact that we still have smart, educated people still thinking that we can continue to do this with no consequences is even sadder.
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  #8440  
Old Posted Feb 18, 2020, 3:40 PM
laniroj laniroj is offline
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Originally Posted by Sam Hill View Post
We should live in walkable neighborhoods, close to where we work, and not be car-dependent, but only if we're wealthy. Got it.
Haha...exactly. Even if we have the tools to produce housing for all, let's just say screw it, I've got mine and everyone else is good! I will never understand this mind set.

I'll get off my soapbox, but I maintain that if enough land were available with the right zoning everywhere (not little spots here and there), we wouldn't have inflated land prices and we wouldn't have 1/3 of American households housing cost burdened. In every industry in this country, market forces find a way to meet demand, and often exceed demand (except apple now because their factories are in Wuhan). I'm just not sure why some folks on here think the real estate community would be exempt from that long history of business being able to provide adequate supply.
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