General Phoenix Metro Discussion Thread

[CrestedSaguaro]

Originally Posted by Mr.RE

I disagree. I think Retail is evolving. Now more than ever you see online stores setting up physical store locations. Not to mention online sales only make up roughly 10% of all total retail sales. I think location matters, this Biltmore center is struggling and fashion square is the one of the best performing malls in the country so its not a surprise retailers are moving. I am sure we will see retailers adapt over time.

Correct. This is a big myth. There are many, many articles on why retail isn't dead and why it's not going to any time soon. Big box and everyday chain stores are having problems, but specialty stores and upscale stores have actually grown. It's also estimated that 90% TO 95% of all shopping will still be done at brick and mortar stores even by 2025. So, I wouldn't count retail out at all. The problem being faced is just adjusting to the way shopping is handled by today's shoppers. However, quite a few retailers are tackling this nicely.

Grabbed this from a quick search:
"Walmart shares are up 12% this year, Target’s stock is up nearly 30%, Costco shares are up more than 20%, Dollar General is up 20% and Dollar Tree is up 11% so far in 2019".

That's not dying retail.

[biggus diggus]

Have any of you been to Fashion Square lately? I sure have. the amount of space that's either vacant, converted to entertainment, or being rented by Chinese massage or grey market discount stores is astonishing.

How any of you can argue that retail (the way we know it) isn't dying is beyond my level of comprehension. You must be in denial. The shape of malls has changed and management companies know this. Biltmore is changing its use away from retail stores in order to keep leases signed.

Below are some links that will provide you with some reading on the subject. I have purposefully not just picked ones that support my narrative, but I think after reading them you'll agree that mall retail is a dying breed.

https://www.vox.com/the-goods/2019/4...ears-toys-r-us

https://medium.com/@efeng/the-circle...g-ac9df55f9143

https://www.forbes.com/sites/gregpet.../#12eae6287221

[combusean]

The malls are filled with the shells of chains whose corporate raiders have destroyed them and malls as a concept are dead anyways. They have been for years, being replaced by power and lifestyle centers like 44th and Thomas and SanTan Village in Gilbert.

This is aside from the incorrect notion that retail as a whole is dying.

[biggus diggus]

It depends on how one might define retail.

If you consider Amazon retail then no, retail is not dying.

[TJPHXskyscraperfan]

Originally Posted by combusean

The malls are filled with the shells of chains whose corporate raiders have destroyed them and malls as a concept are dead anyways. They have been for years, being replaced by power and lifestyle centers like 44th and Thomas and SanTan Village in Gilbert.

This is aside from the incorrect notion that retail as a whole is dying.

Are you actually talking about all the redone stuff at 32nd st and Indian School?

[combusean]

^ I was giving an example of a power center...which has no vacancies, fwiw.

[RichTempe]

Originally Posted by biggus diggus

Have any of you been to Fashion Square lately? I sure have. the amount of space that's either vacant, converted to entertainment, or being rented by Chinese massage or grey market discount stores is astonishing.

How any of you can argue that retail (the way we know it) isn't dying is beyond my level of comprehension. You must be in denial. The shape of malls has changed and management companies know this. Biltmore is changing its use away from retail stores in order to keep leases signed.

Below are some links that will provide you with some reading on the subject. I have purposefully not just picked ones that support my narrative, but I think after reading them you'll agree that mall retail is a dying breed.

https://www.vox.com/the-goods/2019/4...ears-toys-r-us

https://medium.com/@efeng/the-circle...g-ac9df55f9143

https://www.forbes.com/sites/gregpet.../#12eae6287221

I don't know about the overall state of retail and malls as a whole, but the owners of Scottsdale Fashion Square sure put a large amount of money into it just last year (between $140 million and $160 million) for something that has a lot of 'vacant, converted to entertainment, or being rented by Chinese massage or grey market discount stores'

https://azbigmedia.com/lifestyle/sho...ashion-square/

https://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/...ew-luxury.html

Personally, I'm not a fan of malls, but I live near the Chandler Fashion Center Mall and if I do have to go there, the parking lot is always mobbed and I don't notice a huge amount of vacancies, so they seem to be doing okay too.

[biggus diggus]

The remodel at fashion square turned A LOT of retail space into restaurant and entertaining space, FYI.

A big portion of fashion park is about to become a gym and other office and maybe residential space is going in.

If this stuff tells us anything it's that demand for retail space is diminishing. There's really no valid debate against that.

[xymox]

Originally Posted by biggus diggus

The remodel at fashion square turned A LOT of retail space into restaurant and entertaining space, FYI.

A big portion of fashion park is about to become a gym and other office and maybe residential space is going in.

If this stuff tells us anything it's that demand for retail space is diminishing. There's really no valid debate against that.

Not sure this is a closed debate - Arrowhead, Scottsdale and Chandler Fashion Squares are thriving. Mixed use retail centers like Kierland and Scottsdale Quarters are thriving. Even Desert Ridge went from most every store vacant in the 'mall' section to nearly every space occupied - lead by H&M taking up a large chunk of it.

Retail is going through a transformation - the retail stores that figure out how to balance online with what people want in brick and mortar will continue to survive. Those who don't will close up and disappear.

Yes - there's a lot of dead retail space - but not in the popular, growing parts of town. Usually in older parts of town that aren't popular shopping areas - or places where retail shopping centers were overbuilt.

[RichTempe]

Originally Posted by biggus diggus

The remodel at fashion square turned A LOT of retail space into restaurant and entertaining space, FYI.

A big portion of fashion park is about to become a gym and other office and maybe residential space is going in.

If this stuff tells us anything it's that demand for retail space is diminishing. There's really no valid debate against that.

And apparently A LOT of new retail came in or expanded as well FYI.

Major new exclusive-to-market retailers announced in 2018 are:

• Saint Laurent – A luxury, prêt-à-porter retailer with boutiques in Paris, Beverly Hills and other major luxury centers around the world

• Apple – The iconic consumer tech brand opened the market’s first of its newly designed flagship locations at Scottsdale Fashion Square in October

• Trina Turk – A contemporary favorite specializing in chic women’s ready to wear and accessories

• Breitling – The Swiss brand known for high-precision timepieces

• Hublot – The inventive brand that combines exotic materials and Swiss watchmaking tradition

• IWC Schaffhausen – With a focus on technology, this Swiss watchmaker has produced timepieces with lasting value since 1868

• Peloton – High-end, at-home fitness equipment that marries sophisticated technology with expert-led group classes and other media content

• b8ta – The retail destination for discovering the latest in electronics and other innovative products

• UNTUCKit – The casual men’s shop known for redefining dress shirt style

• Morphe – The renowned beauty brand created by artists and influencers

Spurred by Macerich’s investments in upping the luxury quotient at Scottsdale Fashion Square, these current top brands are evolving by recommitting, expanding and renovating their retail presence at the property:

• Louis Vuitton – The French luxury house famed for signature leather goods, accessories and more recently remodeled its flagship location at Scottsdale Fashion Square

• St. John – Esteemed for signature knitwear and exceptional service, the store enhanced its presentation at Scottsdale Fashion Square, opening its new location in the luxury wing in October

• Jimmy Choo – The 21st century luxury accessories brand with shoes at its heart will soon undergo a relocation

• Escada – The European luxury designer clothing brand is a recent addition to Scottsdale Fashion Square

• Johnny Was – Offering luxury Boho fashion and accessories for women, this LA-based brand completely renovated its current location, featuring hand-painted artwork on the storefront

• Bottega Venetta – Known for its exquisite leather and other luxury goods, the Italian brand completely renovated the store interior with a new, two-story front entrance

• Omega – The luxury Swiss watchmaker has been redesigned to replicate the Omega flagship store in Switzerland

• CH Carolina Herrera – The modern luxury lifestyle collection from the eponymous South American designer will soon be relocating to a new space in the luxury wing

• Gucci – One of the world’s top luxury brands representing the pinnacle of Italian craftsmanship, the boutique is relocating to a new, expanded location across the Palm Court

• Cartier – The renowned French luxury brand focusing on fine jewelry, watches, accessories and fragrances will soon undergo complete transformation of its current space

• Lululemon – This technical athletic-wear favorite reinvested at Scottsdale Fashion Square by doubling the size of its footprint and offering new features such as The Joinery, an onsite customization and hemming service, and Ivivva, the product line for active girls

It seems that this particular mall is adapting to current trends rather than dying to me. So what is some of it is restaurant and entertaining space? Most of it is still retail.

Anyway this is one mall, I'm not making an argument about the whole of retail or malls in general as I said before in the very first sentence of my previous post.

BTW: Your statement that there really is no valid debate against diminished demand for retail space assumes that you are the ultimate authority on the issue. While you may disagree with what others have to say on the topic, there is plenty of debate going on and to call its validity into question is specious. It's also a cheap way to try to end an argument by insinuating that anyone who disagrees with or debates your opinion is foolish or ignorant.

[ASU Diablo]

Originally Posted by RichTempe

And apparently A LOT of new retail came in or expanded as well FYI.



It seems that this particular mall is adapting to current trends rather than dying to me. So what is some of it is restaurant and entertaining space? Most of it is still retail.

Anyway this is one mall, I'm not making an argument about the whole of retail or malls in general as I said before in the very first sentence of my previous post.

BTW: Your statement that there really is no valid debate against diminished demand for retail space assumes that you are the ultimate authority on the issue. While you may disagree with what others have to say on the topic, there is plenty of debate going on and to call its validity into question is specious. It's also a cheap way to try to end an argument by insinuating that anyone who disagrees with or debates your opinion is foolish or ignorant.

That’s what Biggus does unfortunately. All his debates focus around that argument.

And regarding Fashion Park and Lifetime Fitness...it’s not like Macy’s closed down and they took over the empty retail shell. They’re building on top of an empty parking lot

[biggus diggus]

The earth isn't flat. If I showed someone evidence it's round I would remind them that this is fact and I don't want to argue with someone who ignores facts. Do you follow the example I'm giving?

[combusean]

Originally Posted by biggus diggus

The remodel at fashion square turned A LOT of retail space into restaurant and entertaining space, FYI.

A big portion of fashion park is about to become a gym and other office and maybe residential space is going in.

If this stuff tells us anything it's that demand for retail space is diminishing. There's really no valid debate against that.

You're incorrectly extrapolating what you're seeing in a declining area like the Biltmore (remember it lost the Ritz) that has a lot of competition a few miles down the road in Scottsdale as a sign of the overall market. Retail sales are still growing.

There have been plans to redo the Biltmore since like 2006. It's an anachronism and needs the investment. Offices and residences and amenities instead of oodles of parking are long overdue.

[xymox]

Originally Posted by ASU Diablo

That’s what Biggus does unfortunately. All his debates focus around that argument.

And regarding Fashion Park and Lifetime Fitness...it’s not like Macy’s closed down and they took over the empty retail shell. They’re building on top of an empty parking lot

I think in the case of the Fashion Park - the arrival of more food and gyms, etc is due to the fact that residential is growing in the area and thus demand is heightened for non-traditional mall tenants. Where else are you going to put a new gym in that area? With all the future projects lined up for the area, this is only going to grow demand for such services. That's not a bad thing.

Its really interesting if you read up on the history of that corner and that mall specifically. How it started and got to where it did today. Its constantly evolved - and to me seems incredibly healthy that it continues to do so today. Scottsdale city council isn't going to let that area turn blighted - its a point of pride.

[fawd]

Originally Posted by biggus diggus

The earth isn't flat. If I showed someone evidence it's round I would remind them that this is fact and I don't want to argue with someone who ignores facts. Do you follow the example I'm giving?

The earth looks pretty flat to me, bro.

[azsunsurfer]

I think there are some merits to both sides of the argument.

The retail landscape may not be able to (in its current form) support the entire amount of sqft. at the Scottsdale Fashion Square...Especially upper floors in retail have historically been difficult to deal with even in places like Chicago and New York. I eventually see more office space in store for those spaces like Industrious in part of the Barney's space.

I could see most of the Biltmore becoming more of a glorified food hall or entertainment space. May be we'll see more bars/ entertainment soon. I am noticing that most malls like Tempe Marketplace and The Quarter are now hosting these rotating attractions like Candyland or The Taco Exhibit. I think they are kinda tacky but I have known people who have gone to both and found it fun. You can only have so many Wonderspaces at your mall before the public gets bored. We are simply just overbuilt with retail.

[KEVINphx]

Originally Posted by biggus diggus

The remodel at fashion square turned A LOT of retail space into restaurant and entertaining space, FYI.

A big portion of fashion park is about to become a gym and other office and maybe residential space is going in.

If this stuff tells us anything it's that demand for retail space is diminishing. There's really no valid debate against that.

This is factually incorrect - they are EXPANDING the center - Scottsdale Fashion Square is on of the highest grossing per square foot "malls" in the entire USA with PSF sales over $1,200

https://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/...-in-sales.html



I'd like to know WHERE in the mall any retail was converted to restaurants or gym or offices? ? ?

They added a new high end gym at The Arizona Biltmore . . .

Scottsdale Fashion Square is continually EXPANDING in square footage - the only conversion of retail I am aware of was the Barney's Department Store that became an Apple Store . . . The end of the mall by Neiman Marcus is highly successful and being redone to all luxury retail . . . no new dining there and they are expanding that portion of the structure to ADD office space.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottsdale_Fashion_Square
"The merger between Federated Department Stores and May Department Stores brought the closure Robinsons-May in June 2006, leading the mall to demolish the former department store and build another new wing anchored by Barneys New York. The new wing, which also featured an H&M store, opened in 2009.[9] That same year, the first Microsoft Store opened elsewhere in the mall.[10]

Another expansion was added in 2015: a two-level building with Dick's Sporting Goods on the lower level and a new 14-screen Harkins Theatres cinema on the top level. In early 2016, Barneys New York announced it would close its Scottsdale Fashion Square store.[11] In late 2016 the mall's owner, Macerich, announced plans of a new renovation, in excess of $100 million, which will include high-end residential units, a hotel, a new luxury entrance, hospitality areas and office space.[12][13] Construction will begin in 2017, with the renovation's completion date anticipated to be in Fall 2018.[14]"

Mall retail may be dying, but NOT at the states most successful brick-and-mortar retail center lol

[biggus diggus]

The current renovation at Fashion Square is adding office space, more restaurants, hospitality, and a hotel and condos. They cut into the retail space to add all that. I shop at Fashion Square a lot and have been watching this project since the beginning. The retail square footage has shrunk. This article sums it up nicely, retail space is shrinking because the retail market is not what it once was. Malls are shifting to uses other than retail space. Scottsdale Fashion Square is a great example. This is absolute fact: leasing retail space is getting harder and harder.

Macerich Brings Wonderspaces to Scottsdale Fashion Square
Zacks Equity Research December 14, 2018

https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/342...fashion-square

The Macerich Company (MAC - Free Report) announced that Wonderspaces will open its first permanent location at the company’s retail and dining hub, Scottsdale Fashion Square.

Particularly, Wonderspaces will lease 16,000 square feet of space to showcase a series of ticketed art shows by associating with global artists. It expects to organize three shows annually at Scottsdale Fashion Square, starting in early 2019.

As this aims to present artwork to new audiences, it will likely drive mall traffic at the retail destination. In fact, Wonderspaces drew more than 60,000 and 100,000 visitors in 2017 and 2018, respectively.

Per Macerich management, Wonderspaces choice for permanent location is an apt fit for both companies. The mall’s strategic location in the affluent area in Arizona will enable Wonderspaces to attract targeted visitors.

Further, it will boost the mall’s tenant roster by adding another first-to-market tenant. The company has been making efforts to rejig the premier shopping and dining destination. In November, the company took the wraps off the luxury wing of Scottsdale Fashion Square, after the hub received a face-lift for more than a year.


The wing is well merchandised with reputed brands, including Dillards, Neiman Marcus, Jimmy Choo, Louis Vuitton and Gucci, making it the ultimate luxury shopping destination.

Admittedly, shrinking mall traffic, store closures and retailer bankruptcies, amid aggressive growth in online sales, have kept retail REITs, including Macerich and others like Kimco Realty Corp. (KIM - Free Report) , Federal Realty Investment Trust (FRT - Free Report) , Taubman Centers, Inc. (TCO - Free Report) , on tenterhooks. In addition, tenants are demanding substantial lease concessions due to a choppy retail real estate market scenario.

This dominance of e-commerce and online retail sales has compelled mall landlords to explore unique uses for their retail spaces. Amid this, Macerich’s efforts to enhance the productivity of malls, by trying to grab attention from new and productive tenants are aimed at boosting mall traffic and driving sales.


Nonetheless, implementation of such measures requires a decent upfront cost and hence, would drag the company’s near-term profit margin.

Macerich currently has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). The company’s shares have declined 14.4% in the past six months compared to the industry’s loss of 2.4%. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

[mdpx]

Originally Posted by biggus diggus

The remodel at fashion square turned A LOT of retail space into restaurant and entertaining space, FYI.

A big portion of fashion park is about to become a gym and other office and maybe residential space is going in.

If this stuff tells us anything it's that demand for retail space is diminishing. There's really no valid debate against that.

Wasn't you who posted ad nauseum about the death of multifamily and how overbuilt the Valley was and how was ready to come crashing down due to incentives offered to renters as a sign of its decline? Seems like the same argument that is has no root in fact, but a gut feeling. Im not buying it this time either, Biggus.

[biggus diggus]

How is providing you an article that says exactly what I posted my "gut feeling"?

edit: You can think as you like, there's no incentive for me to help you understand. I'm not continuing this.