National Economy

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by Loco101

That sounds like such a classic comment from a left-leaning person!

Yeah, the Liberals embrace of old timey conservatism is weird.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

There is an easy test for this. Drive through rural areas and notice how much better service is at the Burger King in a town with kids but no fake colleges. Or even the mom and pop ice cream places that higher high school students for the summer. Granted those kids in the city would (unsurprisingly) rather work in a clothing store or something less stressful. So without the fake students they'd have to increase pay to compete as we see in the US with $25 fast food starting wages. And that is with $10 or less minimum wages in the Gap compared to our $16.

Most of the fast food outlets in my region are owned by South-Asian families who immigrated here. And I don't just mean Timmins but any other town such as Cochrane or Kapuskasing. And it happened within the last decade. There's more money in mining related businesses here so many restaurants have been bought by immigrants since it's not as attractive to people from here.

Having been to the US a number of times lately, the fast food prices are considerably higher there overall so the higher wages do show on the menu with the higher labour costs.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by casper

Ghosts do have a certain perspective that should not be discounted.

I think it clear Canada was heading for a recession. Variety of factors at play. The immigration likely avoided that from happening. That is a positive, but there are some second impacts that need to be managed. Most people I think would agree the immigration level is a bit to high and some adjustment is needed.

The US avoided a significant recession by spending and spending and spending. The US also has the worst illegal migrant flow in its history.

The UK had some right wingers who had their weird ideas that they would prosper outside of the EU. They were clearly proven wrong. So it has its own special considerations. The EU itself has all of these refuges/migrants entering its trading block.

Yes, all these countries are avoiding recessions but they are all on the verge of having a recession. That includes us.

Canada opened the floodgates to foreign student work in October 2022. In April 2022, the IMf was predicting 2.8% growth in Canada in 2023. So the government had no reason to believe a recession was coming.

https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/...ook-april-2022

In April 2023, after the flood of students arrives, it lowered its growth forecast to 1.5%.

https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/...ook-april-2023

In April 2024, it updated its 2023 growth at 1.1%

https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/...ook-april-2024

So when Canada changed its student work policy the IMF was predicting decent growth. Growth then dropped after the flood of new students.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by acottawa

Yeah, the Liberals embrace of old timey conservatism is weird.

The big questions is what is the CPC position under PP's leadership on the issue?

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by Loco101

The big questions is what is the CPC position under PP's leadership on the issue?

https://www.reddit.com/r/CanadaHousi...en_wages_are/?

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by acottawa

https://www.reddit.com/r/CanadaHousi...en_wages_are/?

It doesn't really tell us much. I'm curious to see how businesses will respond to PP trying to implement it. If voters want that then I guessing there won't be much of an issue but it would lead to higher prices for some goods for sure.

[theman23]

It doesn't tell you much...but you also think it'll lead to higher prices on goods "for sure"? Pick one.

Anyways, at this point P.P. has taken a position on just about every major issue. Whether he stays true to his word is one thing (see JT's Toronto Star editorial from 2014), but if you still think he doesn't have a position you've really not been paying attention.

[P'tit Renard]

Originally Posted by acottawa

Canada opened the floodgates to foreign student work in October 2022. In April 2022, the IMf was predicting 2.8% growth in Canada in 2023. So the government had no reason to believe a recession was coming.

https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/...ook-april-2022

In April 2023, after the flood of students arrives, it lowered its growth forecast to 1.5%.

https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/...ook-april-2023

In April 2024, it updated its 2023 growth at 1.1%

https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/...ook-april-2024

So when Canada changed its student work policy the IMF was predicting decent growth. Growth then dropped after the flood of new students.

Exactly. If Trudeau had consulted the world's most preeminent economic experts at the IMF or World Bank in 2022 (which are consistent with the Bank of Canada forecasts), he would had reached the conclusion that flooding the country with excess immigration is neither sound nor prudent economic policy.

But in this case cold hard facts got in the way, and the facts were not convenient to his political aims, so Trudeau decided not to enact evidence-based policy. Instead Trudeau bet all his chips on the immigration ponzi scheme to please his Boomer base.

[MonkeyRonin]

Originally Posted by acottawa

Yeah, the Liberals embrace of old timey conservatism is weird.

It's interesting how so many ostensibly left-leaning people have come to support "pro business" policy as long as it's their side doing it.

[thewave46]

I wonder if the strongest proponents of very high immigration would sing the same tune of their communities had to cope with the influx our major centres have.

Four percent a year, every year express from South Asia to Timmins, skills be damned. Sixteen hundred people per year with all the federal support of ‘Figure it out yourselves’ with once in awhile federal sprinklings of cash.

Curious about how the locals would feel in a decade. Fifty-six thousand in Timmins in 2034. The statistics fetish people would cheer, as would local restaurant owners.

But if the other guy does this, it’s bad.

[ssiguy]

It's not at all surprising that our economy has slowed as student visas have soared.

The students add very little to the economy except for bailing out our colleges & universities. Very few actually go into the skilled trades where they are needed most and they, due to high tuition fees, spend little in the local economy. They provide cheap labour for low skilled McJobs but very little to productive highly skilled ones. What they do bring with them, however, is a huge strain on the already housing crisis sending vacancy rates to near zero especially for affordable units while while simultaneously sending rents soaring.

Think about it. How much better off Canadians would be and how much more discretionary spending would Canadians have if rent during Trudeau's reign of terror had only gone up by the rate of inflation instead of doubling. That's money going right into the pockets of investors/bankers while not being circulated into the broader economy.

Consumer demand in goods and services make up the bulk of our economy and when there is less of it, it is little surprise that our economy is in a constant state of malaise.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by Loco101

The restaurant would definitely be open without the foreign employees but with much shorter hours and a much smaller menu. Rents in Timmins would be high anyways because of the price of gold being $2600 US an ounce right now and many mining jobs available to be filled.

Killed the dream of others wanting to start a business? Definitely not. Although a competitor who opened around the same time recently closed. And that competitor didn't know how to pay bills properly or operate a supply chain. The owner was a francophone millennial who refused to hire any racial minority person and bragged about it. He confronted my relative and got upset at him blaming him for hurting his business yet they aren't really that similar and cater to different crowds.

I don't understand your last sentence. My relative is a Millennial who is very skilled in cooking and has papers from a well known institution. I've never heard anybody say that he is hurting the community.

Yes, without the flood of foreign students we' be like Switzerland. You know, that desolate hellscape that nobody goes to.

Sure, stuff would be expensive but people would likely be happier.

[Loco101]

It's interesting that many of you were complaining about inflation and saying how it was Trudeau's fault yet now you think inflation is now okay if it means not having as many foreign workers.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by thewave46

I wonder if the strongest proponents of very high immigration would sing the same tune of their communities had to cope with the influx our major centres have.

Four percent a year, every year express from South Asia to Timmins, skills be damned. Sixteen hundred people per year with all the federal support of ‘Figure it out yourselves’ with once in awhile federal sprinklings of cash.

Curious about how the locals would feel in a decade. Fifty-six thousand in Timmins in 2034. The statistics fetish people would cheer, as would local restaurant owners.

But if the other guy does this, it’s bad.

Let's see. We would have a larger market with more businesses and more available people for services, construction and natural resources. I've seen our city suffer with many people moving out and it wasn't good. Look at a place like Kapuskasing today and see downhill things have gone by losing so many people.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by Loco101

It's interesting that many of you were complaining about inflation and saying how it was Trudeau's fault yet now you think inflation is now okay if it means not having as many foreign workers.

Because we'd get higher wages to counter it.

[MonkeyRonin]

Originally Posted by Nite

Well you would have to know what perfect of the 1.2 were workers and also would canada have lost a significant amount of  jobs in 2023 instead of creating 400,000 as well to do a proper calculation. Most likely Canada would have gone into a pretty deep recession and see 100,000's of job loss last year instead of creating 400,000 new jobs it 5% interest rates without those 1.2 million people.

The study also covered a 20 year period (1980 to 2000) over many business cycles so i don't think 1 year only can show the full effects of employment for those who just arrived.

If you believe the study is bullshit it should be easy for you to prove with a similar comprehensive study that shows the opposite results.

It's basic logic, but you have it backwards. The simple act of someone immigrating does not create 1.2 jobs, and it's not something that is infinitely scalable or universally applicable. Rather, the purpose of immigration is to fill job vacancies, fill gaps in the economy, and allow businesses to grow.

In a properly functioning immigration system, each new working-age immigrant would fill one available job, or start a new business; and then there are additional spin offs that are created as they add to the number of consumers in the market, thereby inducing demand across all industries. In this context, 1 immigrant creating 1.2 new jobs does make sense and I don't doubt that the study is not historically accurate in the US.

Like all things though, there's an equilibrium point beyond which there are diminishing and then negative returns. In this case, simply adding more immigrants does not increase the number of job vacancies. If immigration numbers exceed the number of available jobs that the economy is capable of generating, then unemployment rises - which is what is happening in Canada now. Unprecedented economic growth is not the outcome of unprecedented population growth. It's the other way around - if we had unprecedented economic growth, then the population growth should follow.

But hey, don't take it from me. I'm sure the BMO's economists don't know what they're talking about when they warn that our economy is unable to keep up with current population growth. Meanwhile, even Justin Trudeau realizes that his immigration spike is driving wages down; while immigration minister Marc Miller admits that the whole point of temporary foreign workers is for businesses to keep labour costs down.

[thewave46]

Originally Posted by Loco101

Let's see. We would have a larger market with more businesses and more available people for services, construction and natural resources. I've seen our city suffer with many people moving out and it wasn't good. Look at a place like Kapuskasing today and see downhill things have gone by losing so many people.

My point is this: Much of Canada has been coping with such a situation for many years now. It’s put a lot of pressure on elements of our country and the doubling down of the last few years has notably harmed our upcoming generations. The domestic citizens who will carry the load of tomorrow bear the costs of expensive housing and an entry level job market that is flooded with imported labour.

So, to continue the cheerleading for ‘more’ from a region that has experienced minimal downsides of the current policy is a take that induces a strong reaction, because if the only way a region can grow is at the cost of much increased suffering elsewhere in most of the country is probably a net loser overall.

Second, population growth should follow economic growth. If things are as robust as you say, why isn’t Timmins getting people? Newfoundlanders flooded cold, remote Fort McMurray. Ontarians move en masse to Alberta, according to migration stats. Why is the north of this province so resistant to increasing its population of domestic Canadians? Especially since one can drive there from southern Ontario in less than a day.

Third, Kapuskasing’s population reflects its economic performance. I lived there. It did OK while the Mattagami hydro projects were underway and the Agrium phosphate mine existed, but it reverted back to remote paper mill town when they were done. Given the legacy of paper mill failures of the last decade, a declining population shouldn’t be a surprise. It sucks, but these aren’t places that have an intrinsic reason to have people there unless the resource is in demand.

[P'tit Renard]

Originally Posted by Loco101

It's interesting that many of you were complaining about inflation and saying how it was Trudeau's fault yet now you think inflation is now okay if it means not having as many foreign workers.

The flood of fake students and foreign workers has turbocharged rent and shelter inflation, which is undoubtedly is the worst type of inflation as the only beneficiaries are the landlords. No wonder homelessness and foodbank use keeps skyrocketing and shattering new records in Canada every month.

At least service inflation trickles down to employees through higher wages, as we're seeing it play out in the US. Instead, Trudeau actively attacks local working class Canadians by jacking up TFWs and fake student quotas.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by Loco101

Let's see. We would have a larger market with more businesses and more available people for services, construction and natural resources. I've seen our city suffer with many people moving out and it wasn't good. Look at a place like Kapuskasing today and see downhill things have gone by losing so many people.

How do foreign students help this? Even if some people arrive the same forces inducing people to want to leave Kapuskasing will still be in place.

[P'tit Renard]

Originally Posted by lio45

What's next, Loco's other Timmins relative who successfully exploited a loophole in ON tenancy laws to be able to kick a little family to the curb, who's now homeless, in order to rent the exact same apartment to 30 South Asians? Portrayed as a feel good story?

As long as Timmins grows, why does the well-being of local working class Canadians matter?