Quote:
Originally Posted by MonkeyRonin
The movement of people to Alberta in search of afforable housing has been well documented in recent years. Affordability - or rather, the unaffordability of BC & Ontario - is now it's primary driver of growth, rather than economic prospects.
Of course, much like Canada as a whole, when population growth vastly exceeds economic or job growth, unemployment inevitability rises.
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There is definitely truth to this. It doesn't mean Alberta is doing badly, but it's economic performance hasn't been stellar either, most importantly relative to other provinces. In booms past, they benefitted from downturns in other provinces to create a "push" factor that drove migrants out, which they needed because the "pull" factor was high wages, but that alone wouldn't necessarily be enough. Especially for lots of east coasters, the pull was super appealing, but it was the "push" out of the east due to poor economies that really sealed the deal for many. And that's been demonstrated over the last few years, the net gains from the east coast had dropped a lot. There were always better jobs and better money in AB, even when the Maritimes came out of the stagnation they didn't have the economic strength+wages of AB. But it didn't matter, there was more to the story, which was basically people would be OK with earning less if it meant they could stay in their home region and work and get by decently. In the 90s and 2000s/early 10s, the differential was too big to ignore, but many were not happy about the move. Hence why the whammy of a relatively poor economy from 2015-2021 and an improving economy for the Maritimes really put the brakes on that migration exchange. The last few quarters have seen the east coast losing to AB again, but that isn't an indication of a return to the old days.
Same with BC, historically BC lost to AB when AB was booming and conversely BC was in the doldrums (ie. late 90s and early 200s). But for much of the last 20 years, BC has been high in interprovincial migration, so AB wasn't successfully siphoning off people. I think that's what is different now, and what Monkey Ronin was thinking of. While affordability differentials have always been a factor, it is now THE factor for BC and ON at least. Of course people can have other things that contribute here and there, but the point is that the economy is not the decider anymore, it is inability to live in their preferred province that is causing both push and pull. So that is a very different scenario than what we're used to, and the stats seem to confirm that. You can't put all the blame of AB's stubbornly higher unemployment to large immigration flows. First of all, a booming economy is able to absorb quite a lot, hence why previous AB booms produced record low unemployment rates while still receiving record migration, so more migration does not necessarily equal higher unemployment. Second, although AB's growth has been high, it's accompanied by record high growth in most provinces at the same time. So while interprovincial losses from BC and ON to AB have accelerated recently, the international is so high that it's masking a lot of it in a way never seen before (same is true for basically every province right now). And yet they haven't experienced stubbornly high unemployment, so booming international migration isn't the culprit. What it possibly points to is that people moving to AB from BC and ON are doing so for the affordability first and foremost, and not necessarily better jobs anymore. The wage gap has narrowed quite a lot, and economic performance is not on fire the way it used to be. But the lure of cheaper housing is so acute today, it is more than enough for many people, with or without a job prospect.
Just to show what I mean, here's some of the StatsCan figures in more detail:
Year over year % change by province
Alberta
Labour force 5.0%
Employment 3.8%
Full-time employment 3.2%
Unemployment 24.7%
Nova Scotia
Labour force 3.7%
Employment 4.0%
Full-time employment 4.7%
Unemployment -0.6%
Newfoundland and Labrador
Labour force 2.1%
Employment 2.8%
Full-time employment 3.3%
Unemployment -4.7%
British Columbia
Labour force 3.3%
Employment 3.3%
Full-time employment 3.3%
Unemployment 2.4%
So AB certainly is not doing badly, but those figures are also not indicative of a boom, at least in the historical sense. I chose these 3 provinces because they have historically been much weaker than AB. But these stats show that by some metrics, they are doing better than AB. Both NS and NL had more employment growth than labour force growth, despite also getting a migration surge (for NS at least). And both recorded a decline in unemployment. Then BC, where labour force and employment growth were identical, meaning the economy produced sufficient jobs for the population surge. And unemployment growth was a relatively small 2.4%, compared with unemployment up 24.7% in AB. Is it that BC is magically shedding just the right amount of unemployed people and giving them to AB? No, a big chunk of people moving away from BC are people with good jobs, a decent lifestyle, and basically are doing it because of the cost of housing, all other factors are just gravy. But this is certainly not the AB story of pre-2015, when it was the clear winner in every economic metric across the board.
AB is doing much better than ON and QC still though, at least in terms of labour markets:
Year over year % change by province:
Quebec
Labour force 1.5%
Employment 0.6%
Full-time employment -0.2%
Unemployment 22.1%
Ontario
Labour force 3.0%
Employment 1.1%
Full-time employment 1.1%
Unemployment 37.5%
These stats are not great by any measure, and while they might be temporary, it is important to keep an eye on them nonetheless. So while unemployment rates always get the most attention in these reports and in media in general, I have always found other stats like the ones posted to be more illustrative of economic conditions (hence why I didn't list them alongside, but here they are anyways:
BC - 5%
QC - 5.1%
NS - 6.1%
ON - 6.8%
AB - 7%
NL - 9.1%
Nothing that remarkable, with the exception of Quebec. It has been consistently near the bottom or at the bottom for lowest unemployment rate in the country, very impressive especially compared to years/decades past. But it hasn't translated into much economic growth either, it's a low unemployment rate, but with slow job growth, it's a bit of a riddle. It's definitely a tale of two truths, which aren't normally associated with each other (low unemployment and low employment growth). I included the "Full time" figures because it is often used by economists in conjunction with the other stats to give more depth to the story. It reaffirms the strong figures from the Maritimes and BC, where full time growth (seen as a good barometer of economic health) either matched or exceeded overall employment growth (it did in Ontario too, which is a positive, just the number was a lowly 1.1%. And Quebec full on lost full time employment y/y, that's a bit concerning (not panic mode or crisis level, but something to take seriously).
Jeez I am so sorry for the disgustingly long post, I tend to get so engrossed in some of these topics I just keep writing and writing, and even then I'm editing myself lol, I could do double this but it's already way too much for one post. Hopefully some people made it through the whole thing lol #statgeeksunite
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