I cannot fully disclose my vote choice without harming current job prospects, but I can definitely outline my thinking:
1. Watson has been a good mayor, but I would not describe him as transformational;
2. This is the first election held on the same ballot as the presidential--age, racial, and income demographics and turnout are going to be entirely different than they have been--easily more than double the number of ballots will be cast for this race than were cast in 2022, which was ALREADY a major change from before with demographics (125k more ballot cast than in 2018). And look how that affected the results: someone who wasn't a male, particularly a straight white male, came in first in the first round and within a few hundred votes of winning in the second round. That trendline is going to continue into 2024.
3. Austin's demographics are already not what they were when Watson was first elected;
4. Watson was held to a run-off in 2022, 34.95% in the first round, and came in 2nd position, and only narrowly won the run-off (50.39%) and he got 48.47% in 1997 when he won his first race. The 2000 election was not seriously contested, and is not a useful data point. He is not and has never been a "natural majority" candidate in Austin, even when the city was WAY more NHW;
5. Tovo appeals to the same demographics as Watson, and is not tarred and feathered in that demographic by the recent zoning changes;
6. Watson just said "screw you" to a large portion of his base thinking (a) he has to because of point 2 above and that (b) he can make up the difference with younger ethnic voters (that won't happen);
All four candidates are impressive and qualified. This is going to be a highly contested race, just like last time, and is going to go to a run-off. And the only candidate I am comfortable saying will advance to the general is NOT Watson. It is Carmen. If this race had happened in a mid-term or before we moved to even numbered years, Watson and Tovo would be shoe-ins to make the run-off. I no longer think that is the case. Carmen will be able to coalesce ~35% of the vote in the first round as the candidate of the progressive, young, ethnic left. Period. She has a very small range of likely first-ballot outcomes, maybe as low as 30% and maybe as high as the 40% that Israel received. This places her as the shoe-in candidate for the general. Watson certainly has a floor, but his recent votes and Tovo announcing are neither good political strategy nor good developments for him. He should have hung his cap on these reforms and retired on a high note, because I could see him getting anywhere from 25% to 40% in the first round, depending on how well Tovo does. Tovo has a lower range, perhaps 15% to 30% in the first round, but there are definitely now realities where she ends up placing ahead of Watson depending on how adeptly she craters his support among anti-housing people in the Hills. Greco is perhaps the least likely to make it to the run-off, with projecting anywhere from 5% to 25% seeming reasonable at this point. One can easily imagine a reality where Carmen comes in first with 30% of the vote, Watson gets his floor at 25% because Tovo eats into his base (she gets 20%), which allows a Greco candidacy that catches fire (he's incredibly qualified and well connected) to eek out a few dozen more votes or so than Watson. One can also easily imagine a reality where Watson (40%) outmaneuvers Tovo (15%) and holds onto most but not all of his core voters and Greco never catches fire (5%), but that still leaves Carmen at 40%. There is zero eventuality where Carmen does not advance to the run-off, but there are circumstances where Watson does not.
As for my vote, could be anybody except Tovo (anti-housing) and Carmen (anti-freeways) and could even be someone who hasn't announced yet (if someone else impressive announces, that'll change my analysis -- particularly if they are in the mold of Carmen).
As for this forum, Watson will get most of your votes. And that's okay! It makes total sense: he appeals to people like urban development folks because of the revolution downtown he helped create. But he also appealed to a bunch of people who are decidedly NOT for more housing: the older school Austin environmental movement, for instance.
San Antonio's 2025 race is much easier to predict: Havrda and Palaez will advance to the run-off, and Courage will come in an admirable third.
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Houston: 2314k (+0%) + MSA suburbs: 5196k (+7%) + CSA exurbs: 196k (+3%)
Dallas: 1303k (-0%) + MSA div. suburbs: 4160k (9%) + adj. CSA exurbs: 457k (+6%)
Ft. Worth: 978k (+6%) + MSA div. suburbs: 1659k (+4%) + adj. CSA exurbs: 98k (+8%)
San Antonio: 1495k (+4%) + MSA suburbs: 1209k (+8%) + CSA exurbs: 82k (+3%)
Austin: 980k (+2%) + MSA suburbs: 1493k (+13%)
Last edited by wwmiv; May 30, 2024 at 2:17 AM.
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