The US Census Bureau thread

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by chris08876

Its something, very impressive growth but if you guys one day eclipse Nigeria rates, I will assume that Canada's favorite coffee, Tim Hortons, has been laced with Tadalafil infused cocoa beans from the Island of Love via some guy called Doctor Heart who runs his own brewing operation using non-CCOHS approved containers.

Lots going on. One has to wonder though if there are any estimates on a slow down, if say services can't keep up. For real though, eventually, all those people will strain the system, if not already.

It won't be because we're making more babies as our fertility rates are very low. It'll be because our doors will have been opened even wider.

And yes all of this is already putting a huge strain on services.

[Crawford]

Right, Canada has lower birth rates than the U.S. and many Western European countries. And that likely masks the difference, as Canada is basically the only one with a dropping median age, and one with the largest population share from high nativity rate nations. It almost certainly has a higher cohort of women in baby making years, with baby making legacy.

But it's also true that birth rates can plummet post-immigration, as new population adjusts to cultural norms and economic realities. German refugee newcomers had vastly higher birthrates a decade ago; but they're only somewhat higher now.

[Acajack]

Yes, that's exactly what is happening. Even people from high fertility countries and cultures see their birth rates drop precipitously after only a generation or two in Canada. There may be a few exceptions but they are quite rare.

[Zeej]

Originally Posted by jaxg8r1

I suppose we will see, but I’m highly skeptical that these numbers are anywhere near being true. Look at the building permit numbers, they’re high but not nearly highly enough to support this level of growth. Also the math on immigration doesn’t support this either.

Anecdotally, most Canadian cities I’ve been too have been growing fast for years. Look at the recent growth reported at the census, is Calgary or Vancouver really growing at 3-5x faster than their historic average from the last census? Sure doesn’t seem like it to me. Maybe faster, but that much faster doesn’t pass the sniff test. At the end of the day, it’s an estimate though. And estimates tend to be a best guess so I suppose we will see in 2026.

The growth is very real. The bulk of it is not from new permanent residents via immigration, but from non-permanent residents, most of whom will gain permanence in the years to come. This is very recent and its pretty noticeable on the ground. In fact, Canadian economists are warning that this growth may actually be undercounting the reality.

Given the make up of this growth - temporary workers and students - it would not be captured in housing starts. These newcomers often arrive and move into a unit that it already occupied by other people or families, putting a pretty big strain on the system.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by Zeej

Given the make up of this growth - temporary workers and students - it would not be captured in housing starts. These newcomers often arrive and move into a unit that it already occupied by other people or families, putting a pretty big strain on the system.

My relatives illustrate common newcomer behavior - my SIL has family in Ottawa and North York in Toronto. Two members of their family arrived from Iran in the last two years, and both live with established family in existing housing. Neither housing unit is particularly large, or built to accommodate extended family. I don't believe there are any plans for them to go elsewhere.

Repeated across Canada, millions can be added without putting immediate, direct pressure for more housing. Also many newcomers are young and financially constrained and couldn't compete for housing anyways.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by Crawford

My relatives illustrate common newcomer behavior - my SIL has family in Ottawa and North York in Toronto. Two members of their family arrived from Iran in the last two years, and both live with established family in existing housing. Neither housing unit is particularly large, or built to accommodate extended family. I don't believe there are any plans for them to go elsewhere.

Repeated across Canada, millions can be added without putting immediate, direct pressure for more housing. Also many newcomers are young and financially constrained and couldn't compete for housing anyways.

It's "workable" to a degree of course, but still a problematic situation on a whole bunch of levels. And the housing crisis is still very real.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by Acajack

It's "workable" to a degree of course, but still a problematic situation on a whole bunch of levels. And the housing crisis is still very real.

Of course. And eventually these people marry, have kids, etc. The housing market will have a delayed shock. And they're putting immediate pressure on transit, roads, healthcare, social services, etc.

Everything I'm hearing from Canada indicates a downshift, no? It doesn't seem like anyone is actually for these extreme levels. I'm very pro-immigration, but clearly a first world economy doesn't need South Sudan-level growth rates. That, over time, will make everyone poorer.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Of course. And eventually these people marry, have kids, etc. The housing market will have a delayed shock. And they're putting immediate pressure on transit, roads, healthcare, social services, etc.

Everything I'm hearing from Canada indicates a downshift, no? It doesn't seem like anyone is actually for these extreme levels. I'm very pro-immigration, but clearly a first world economy doesn't need South Sudan-level growth rates. That, over time, will make everyone poorer.

One does get the sense that things might be spiralling out of control here - downwards.

[Zeej]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Everything I'm hearing from Canada indicates a downshift, no? It doesn't seem like anyone is actually for these extreme levels. I'm very pro-immigration, but clearly a first world economy doesn't need South Sudan-level growth rates. That, over time, will make everyone poorer.

I'm generally in agreement with the above. It's clear that living standards are starting to decrease, which means that they've quietly been decreasing for years now to the point where it is noticeable. I support robust immigration particularly when targeted to address societal needs, but what we are experiencing is not sustainable.

[chris08876]

The limiting reagent in all this will be if Canada can keep up the job growth. How is the supply for lower to mid skilled positions in Canada? To account for all of this immigration?

Now I know they tend to be selective in some cases when it comes to work visas but there's only a finite amount of jobs present. Considering property prices and cost of living, it becomes very hard to even set up shop, say a local mom and pop business, if one is immigrating.

I think folks should be ready for a slow down in that respect. If there is a strain on the system already, all those long term projections might go out the window because eventually, it will catch on that its harder to live there than the country in which one emigrates from.

Considering Canadian populations nodes tend to be concentrated as well, with restrictions on say building outside of those nodes, those property values and rent values will continue to rise.

How has the impact been on the healthcare system? That must a big one!

I always take those long term projections with a grain of salt because they tend to be overly optimistic and tend to not factor in the local/regional dynamics that can very quickly start to regress those outlooks. 10...20 years from now.

[Acajack]

Canada has (had?) what was quite possibly the world's broadest and strongest positive consensus on immigration.

The fact that there are now multiple cracks appearing in that foundation is quite telling.

[Doc_Love]

The Canadian conundrum so much space so few people in such a rich land. I’m not very knowledgeable about Canadian immigration policy except there’s the Big Canada plan or whatever it’s called to have a respectable population for a G7 nation by the time many European and East Asian nations hit that demographic crisis.

Immigration is a good thing it’s been tried and tested from Rome to America and when done well the best ideas are adapted in and it was non Italians that pulled Rome out of the 2nd century crisis. The kind of migration caused by climate change (we don’t know for sure but Roman agricultural production dropped all across the Empire on a couple different occasions. Of course there were a few hordes of steppe horsemen driving immigration into Rome to its benefit when done well. Valintinian is one of the worst emperors by playing politics with Goth lives while dividing them between in and out to encourage his favor. Backfired with him killed at the Battle of Adrianople and his legion scattered. Broke the frontier lines in a huge way for the first time since the worst days of the second century.

We’re not even in the same game let along league or ballpark as Rome of the late 4th century (300’s ad).

I’m very much pro-immigration I’d like more immigration here in Michigan. Yet companies do take advantage of non-citizens and visia holders asylum seekers and straight up border crossers. It pushes wages down strong population growth needs to match up with strong economic growth, there is a bit of chicken or the egg. Even a with a speedy citizenship process too much immigration from less developed and culturally linked countries has its potential issues.

Generally getting highly skilled immigrants has very little downside maybe stirs up a bit of nationalism but the results tend to speak for themselves. Another country’s tax dollars have paid to make this person or family valuable with no input of the country’s own tax payers. People are people but poorly educated people tend to pay off in generations the parents work exceptionally hard to get their kids a good education and a shot at college. That’s a long term investment and like all needs to be handled well.

Americas broken system just provides cheap labor with deportation threats keeping wages down and take kids out of schools paid by taxpayers. Exploitation is a word for it as well as political theater like Roe V Wade was supposed to be for those who got the memo. So I’ve heard suggested. As to why the GOP like pissing off 51% of the population as Don Porfiro said now they let the tiger lose let’s see if they can control it, (the Mexican Revolution yet highly tragic yet very interesting, shout out to Mike Duncan Podcast) they can’t control it. By creating cultural wars by hijacking the response to the hippy movement and civil rights movement, promoting the evangelical movement as stoking its fear and dangling hope if we can just win enough. Knowing the consequences of actually overturning Roe in this day and age would be bad for women and their partner at least and nuclear family unit probably does as well. Not all women are upset some are happy but they were locked in die hard voters it was a political mistake that’s still unfolding.

[bilbao58]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Canada has (had?) what was quite possibly the world's broadest and strongest positive consensus on immigration.

The fact that there are now multiple cracks appearing in that foundation is quite telling.

I've seen quite a few veiled (or coded) negative comments online concerning the diverse demographics of Toronto coming from former residents who say they miss the way it used to be in the 70s and 80s but now despise the place.

In other words, a good chunk of Toronto hatred coming from ex-residents seems to be based on racism. Same with Houston, in fact.

[Nouvellecosse]

Originally Posted by bilbao58

I've seen quite a few veiled (or coded) negative comments online concerning the diverse demographics of Toronto coming from former residents who say they miss the way it used to be in the 70s and 80s but now despise the place.

In other words, a good chunk of Toronto hatred coming from ex-residents seems to be based on racism. Same with Houston, in fact.

Yes I've experienced that online as well. But you have to be careful with online comments, or any voluntary comments for that matter, because of self-selection bias. It's hard to know what percentage of people are making the comments, and when a topic comes up for discussion it tends to be the people who have the strongest (usually negative) feelings who speak up the most. People who aren't bothered by immigration don't tend to even think much about it, while people who are angry about it have it on their mind any time they think about the city.

I've watched videos featuring public events such as a parade and noticed comments like, "Toronto has no Canadians anymore?" or "Is this Canada or India?" and I look at the crowd and notice a few people wearing turbans, saris, etc. Which I would never have even noticed if someone didn't draw my attention to it. It would never even occurred to me to write a positive comment about it because they're just people in a crowd and the focus is on the event. So the positive feedback are comes in the form of all the people who are similar and aren't bothered. But those aren't comments and we have no idea who many such non-comments exist.