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Old Posted Oct 14, 2008, 4:00 PM
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DowntownWpg DowntownWpg is offline
The Loyal Opposition
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Winnipeg
Posts: 511
My Manitoba Federal Riding Prediction:

- Nothing will change!

Some further thoughts on Saint Boniface:

I know many of you are going to point to Saint Boniface as a seat the Tory’s will take this election. I’ve been thinking of the argument recently of how the suburban area of this federal riding (Southdale, Windsor Park, Island Lakes, Royalwood were mentioned) will vote Conservative.

As such, I recently looked into the provincial ridings that make up this suburban portion of the federal Saint Boniface federal riding. The provincial ridings that are either completely or partly within the ‘suburban area’ of Saint Boniface are:

Radison, Riel, Southdale, St. Vital.

And guess what? These provincial ridings all have NDP MLAs.

My thinking is that most of the NDP voters in this riding, provincially, will be voting for Simard. I can’t foresee many provincial NDP voters turning Conservative federally. They’d vote either Lib or NDP (and the NDP hasn’t run a strong campaign in this election in St.B). At the very least, this illustrates that the suburban area of the St.B federal seat isn’t as Conservative as some may suggest.

Later this afternoon, I’m going to make a prediction of the amount of seats each federal party will win today. I’m still toiling with this prediction a bit.
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