Quote:
Originally Posted by Steely Dan
new tribune poll:
Emanuel: 42%
Garcia: 18%
Fioretti: 10%
Wilson: 7%
Walls: 2%
Undecided: 21%
depending on how those undecideds break, rahm could be facing a run-off.
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A more recent poll reinforces what this poll shows:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chicag...election,_2015
Rahm Emanuel 41.7%
Jesus Garcia 16.6%
Willie Wilson 9.7%
Bob Fioretti 6.7%
William Walls 1.7%
Undecided 23.5%
I think many of you are underestimating the chances of a runoff. I believe a strong majority of those undecideds are anti-Rahm voters who are undecided about which of the other candidates to vote for. I live near Midway and people out here don't really like Rahm Emanuel at all, even machine people who were rock solid behind Daley 8+ years ago don't have the same loyalty to Rahm, not even close. Most rank and file neighborhood people are talking about their Aldermanic races (like where I am in the 23rd) and not the Mayor's race but there is still a lot of anybody but Rahm sentiment out there.
Sure some of the undecideds will go Rahm's way and he will end up with 45%+ of the vote but he will fall short of the 55% he got last time which doesn't give him much margin for error to get 50%+1. The mere fact that Rahm is in danger of a runoff in spite of the challengers having trouble with raising money, ground game and even message says something. If there was a well funded challenger with a strong message a run-off would be a shoe in. As it stands I give the chances of a runoff as being 50/50 and if there is a runoff Rahm has a 50/50 chance of winning that. If Rahm avoids a runoff it will be by a squeaker of barely 50%+1, I actually wonder if there may even be some kind of a recount to see if there will be a runoff, I think it will be that close. Personally I think a runoff would be exciting for the city, at the very least keep the discussion going about the future of the city, even if the challenger fails and Rahm wins in the end so be it.