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Originally Posted by Truenorth00
There seems to be confusion here on what constitutes a feasibility study. A $3 million study that looks at a corridor, does some Google Maps routing survey and defines a potential market and builds a very rough business case and ROME is not enough to justify billions in capital spending. It is, however, enough to say, "The idea has some merit and warrants serious investment to study." That is where VIA is at today.
What you're asking for is the equivalent of saying the City should release the studies, concept papers and memos they wrote internally prior to even including the LRT in the TMP. You can ATIP that information. But I don't know of any government agency that routinely releases all kinds of internally commissioned work for no specific reason.
If you have a rough idea of possible routes, concept of operations/service, etc. you can come up with average speeds, costs, potential ridership, etc. You don't need detailed engineering estimates for that. It's what network and business planners do regularly.
How accurate such a speculative estimate will be, is an entirely different question. And one that can only be answered after some very detailed study. I would not be surprised to see timings and speeds change by 25% and costs go up by 50% after the detailed study is complete. And I am going to guess that is partly why they have started culling information from their website until they have more definitive data to present. Expectation management.
Because no government funded the EA prior to this. This has been one of my many frustrations. HFR's early conceptual definition started under Harper. The Trudeau Liberals could and should have funded this $70 million study years ago, not mere months before an election. Instead they gave VIA a few million for more conceptual work and then did nothing for years. Par for the course in Canada these days where all we do is talk and never actually get around to building much.
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Look at it this way. If you're right, and Via's estimates regarding cost, ridership, private sector investment and time are basically sound (within a reasonable margin of error) then this thing will probably get built in a few years, I'm just some crank on the internet and you're going to be riding a shiny new train through the wilderness.
If my suspicions are, and these estimates are not well grounded in empirical data and proper modelling (and cannot be scrutinized by the media or outside experts because of the secrecy) then Via will probably have wasted a decade before this all unravels (a decade when there were otherwise massive amounts of money available for infrastructure).
I was at a senior political-level meeting when Via Fast was effectively killed (I was junior-something nobody note-taker). That project too was shrouded in pointless secrecy and the politicians were taken aback when they saw the actual numbers. I fear Via is making the same mistake again.