Quote:
Originally Posted by wags_in_the_peg
we all have the right to an opinion and my opinion is that you are wrong about the St. B riding. The Franco-Canadians will conitnue to support Martin (oops I mean DION) and his liberals....HOWEVER look at the election boundries. They extend way out past Old St. B and into Southdale, Windsor Park, Island Lakes, Royalwood. These are not "real" french neighbourhoods. The Cons came close last election and they were running a "male ex-businessman". Now they are running a Female Cop, big diference and the audience in these neighbourhoods like it. This is my opinion and I'm not a paid Cons supporter.
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While I do understand what you are saying about the revised election boundaries, my feeling (particularly in these surburban areas) is that the Lib voter is not as 'in your face,' noticeable, or otherwise self identifying.
As such, I believe the same of the specific neighborhoods that you have mentioned (Southdale, Windsor Park, Island Lakes, Royalwood). We will probably see in these areas in terms of % of the vote that we do nationally.
While the Cons will finish ahead in those specific areas, the Libs will garner roughly 30% of the vote in these areas. The NDP, maybe around 20%.
However, the Lib voter turnout in the traditional St.B will be what will tip the scales. They will have roughly 50% in this zone, where most of the population in the riding is (IIRC). On the flip-side, the Cons only receive 40-46% in Southdale, Windsor Park, Island Lakes, Royalwood.
But, who knows? This is, as you pointed out, a newly redesigned riding, and neighborhoods change and can defy popular wisdom.
Either way, this will probably be the most interesting riding to watch on election night.