[Crawford]

Originally Posted by STERNyc

You don't have a strong understanding of time. All of which started before the current crisis, construction is a several year process. That's what happens during a bubble. It's popped and since the crisis there has been zero construction on projects over 100 million. 50 West Street was about to start construction and had financing in place, now its impossible to find financing and it won't go forward. Extell's 10th avenue tower, Extell's 57th Street Tower, the Drake, and countless other holes around Manhattan that aren't and won't go forward for awhile.

So you admit that you lied. You said nothing would be built in NYC for 10 years. Now you admit that worldwide financing is currently dried up, and this fluid situation could change at any moment.

Of course none of these buildings will be financed RIGHT NOW. You claimed nothing could be financed or built for 10 YEARS, which is absurd.

Originally Posted by STERNyc

If you read my post I said financing was secondary. Yes financing will open back up but it won't matter because nobody is going to be building in this economy. Financing will no longer be given for big projects without a large prior commitment, there will be a glut of office space and luxury condominiums and no demand and commitments for new ones for awhile. It'll be the late 1970's to early 1980's, and 1989-1999 all over again.

None of these periods had no construction for 10 years, so again, you admit you lied. In all of these periods, there were dozens of towers constructed.

Lower levels of construction do not mean no construction, and there has never been 10 years in any major global city with no construction.

And nobody but you thinks that NYC is 2008 is remotely comparable to these previous periods.

Originally Posted by STERNyc

Chase is so strong that there stock is lowest its been in 6 years.

You know nothing about Chase, the market, or the relationship between the overall market and the relative strength of a company.

Chase is so far ahead this year in the League Tables, it isn't even funny. In terms of dealmaking, they are completely dominant worldwide as of 2008. Jamie Dimon is the world's most powerful banker.

Originally Posted by STERNyc

If Citigroup doesnt get bailed out it will go bankrupt.

Citigroup has TONS of cash reserves. They are over $50 billion over the "well capitalized" threshold. They may get more govt. capital, which is a completely different matter.

Originally Posted by STERNyc

I know I'm talking to a genuine idiot when you say Morgan Stanley, AIG, and Lehman is fine, tell this to the thousands of employees they've had to lay off they'll be interested to hear.

Brilliant. A company has layoffs, so it then follows that the company is (as you claim) "dead". I guess every single company on earth is "dead", because every single company has layoffs in bad economies. Google just had major layoffs, so I guess Google is "dead." Coca-Cola and Pepsi just laid off 8,000 people in MEXICO ALONE, so I guess no more soda for the world...

And the fact that you put Morgan Stanley in the same boat as AIG and Lehman is just... What exactly has changed at Morgan Stanley?

Originally Posted by STERNyc

Truly an idiot. Hedge funds have gone the way of the junkbond brokerages.

I'll tell that to my buddy who lives on Park Ave. in the low 70's, and is making a killing on the last few months.

Originally Posted by STERNyc

And the demand for medical office space is so high that Extell doesn't have a single commitment.

You don't understand logical reasoning, do you? The lack of a signed tenant does not necessarily have any relationship to demand.

Even if it did, the project hasn't even been marketed until this month. Who on earth would sign a lease this quarter? All dealmaking is off till 2009 at the earliest.

Originally Posted by STERNyc

Actually that's not true. The last spec building that didn't have a tenant at completion was 2 NY Plaza that spelled doom for its developer.

There have been dozens of 100% spec buildings built since 2 NY Plaza.

Axel Stawski ONLY builds spec buildings, such as 565 Fifth and 360 Madison. He even built them in the early 1990's, and made a killing.

Macklowe ONLY builds spec buildings, and he did very well at 340 Madison.

Neither Stawski nor Macklowe opened these buildings with a single tenant.