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Old Posted Nov 20, 2019, 2:27 PM
Winnipegger Winnipegger is offline
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Join Date: May 2007
Location: Winnipeg
Posts: 441
Originally Posted by blueandgoldguy View Post
I saw this link TruViking posted on the main forum.

Looks like Manitoba is predicted to have the lowest economic growth of all the provinces in 2020. Pallister and the conservatives are sure doing a great job of maximizing the economic potential of this province eh?

Did we ever finish last in economic growth under the NDP?
I think that some clarity on this needs to be provided: the CBC article specifically cites the latest Conference Board of Canada report. There are multiple agencies, ranging from Provincial Governments to the big banks that forecast economic growth by Province, and in general the Conference Board always has the most pessimistic projections for Manitoba. If you look at other reports by the Manitoba Bureau of Statistics, TD, CIBC, BMO, IHS Global Insight, etc., the average consensus forecast for Manitoba's GDP growth is 1.3% for 2019 to 2020 - much higher than the 0.9% projected by the Conference Board alone.

Moreover, the Conference Board cites wrapping up Manitoba Hydro investments as the reason for the slowdown, not that Manitoba's economy is going to do bad, per se. Because Manitoba has a "smaller" economy relative to Alberta, BC, Ontario, and Quebec, our economic forecasts are a lot more sensitive to changes in major infrastructure projects, and if our governments or crown corps don't announce projects far in advance, the forecasters have nothing to add in to their models. My guess is that the recent announcement by Vale to invest $1 billion in Thompson over the next few years (Manitoba's GDP is around $63 billion per year), which was made after the Conference Board released their data, will encourage them to revise their projection upwards slightly next update.

In short, don't read too much in to the Conference Board's forecasts.
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