[Trevor3]

This is really intriguing.

I think the northeast Avalon will lose 2 for sure, perhaps 3 is the commission gets stuck trying to reach the "magic 10". Though some districts are really small in population, like those in Labrador, there is legislation which states Labrador has to have at least 4 seats, so reductions there are a non-starter, despite how small Cartwright-L'Anse au Clare is population-wise.

Likely, we'll see principle towns (Clarenville, Grand Falls-Windsor, Stephenville) and their bedroom communities end up with their own districts while the hinterlands with a couple thousand here and a couple thousand there get pushed together.

We'll probably get a revival of the old riding of 'Stephenville' encompassing Port au Port. Then St. George's-Burgeo and another for all of the south coast from Lapoile across. That eliminates 1 seat from the southwest corner, which is all that is possible given that the new southcoast riding would essentially be about 15% of the island's land mass (I'd hate to represent that riding).

Humber East/West, Humber Valley and Bay of Islands will probably get juggled around to displace a couple thousand people into each. Resulting in something like Bay of Island North, Bay of Islands South, Humber Valley, reducing one seat from the Corner Brook area.

They could probably reduce a seat some where between Bonavista North and Burin by bumping the lines up/down accordingly. Exploits, GFW-Buchans, and GFW-Green Bay South could probably be reduced to 2. Something like GFW-North and GFW-Interior maybe?

Regardless, we're going to see a lot of stuff where they take 3-4 districts and blend parts of all of them to end up with 2-3. I think St. John's is going to bear a lot more of the brunt than people expect simply because the districts are so small geographically, in some cases just a few city blocks. Conversely, the entire west side of the northern peninsula is one district and, though the population is small, it takes about 7 hours to drive from one end of the district to the other. There just isn't room to expand some of these rural ridings because they've already been too far stretched. Even the one I think will happen for the southcoast will be entirely ferry serviced and would actually takes DAYS to campaign through in an election.