Quote:
Originally Posted by oldmanshirt
http://recenter.tamu.edu/mreports/SanAntonio.pdf
Downtown SA (here defined as the CBD) has around 5.3 million square feet of office space, which I believe puts it on par with cities like Memphis or Jacksonville. Of this, 20.5% was vacant as of first quarter 2009 (reflecting AT&T's move in 2008). However, even before AT&T left there was almost 19% vacancy (4th quarter 2007), so its not like the office part of downtown was jumping and only since AT&T left has it become a ghost town. Now, non-CBD office space was at 18% vacancy at the beginning of 2009, (up from 11% at the end of '07), but anyone who is remotely familiar with SA knows that its the suburbs that are the place business is going. This isn't a slap at SA's downtown, its just that all the labor is on the Northside and in Westover Hills. That's why those areas continue to get all of the office development and the cool stuff that comes with it.
How then do we get these skilled workers downtown? You can't have a partial solution, because few people will live in a nice apartment or fancy condo downtown if it still means commuting to the suburbs. But most businesses won't move downtown unless they can be close to their employees and/or potential talent pools. The key I think lies in every part of the city being an attractive place to live, and not just Northside and Northeast ISD. This will cause the CBD to truly become "central" again, and make it logical for employers to locate there, because it will mean they have every part of the city to draw labor from.
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As of late, and I wouldn't have said this a few years ago, but if a company wants to grab from the larger pool, they would be DT, or at least the geographic center which is North Star area. As of now, the commute isn't scaring anyone into not working anywhere around town, and DT is no exception. Traffic and congestion is proof that people don't live near where they work, although this can change once the BRAC effect hits.
I put a scenario out there that was probably "best case" and a quick "solution" by getting in 3-4 large companies with lots of employees. Government involvement, offering larger tax incentives than they would for a project in the burbs, has to be the driving force in getting companies DT. Centro Partnership may finally be the booster that DT needs.
So business before residents? This may not have to be the case. The growth of DT could also depend on the expansion of small companies; law firms, medical offices, architectual firms, etc. These people will fuel any River North projects coming online in the next few years, filling out office space at 1221 and the Pearl, helping spur that residential growth. Once there is a true "there" there, people will live there, even if it is just curiosity that makes them live there for the first couple of years or so. People like the shiny and new, but not many are willing to be the "first" at anything.
Having the CBD be cental again is key as well. I think that time and growth will solve that problem. In 3-7 years, we'll see substantial growth on the southside and It will slowly become the "Center" of the city again.