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Old Posted Oct 12, 2007, 1:49 AM
brisavoine brisavoine is offline
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Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 91
Quote:
Originally Posted by flash110 View Post
Anyway, total fertility rates donĀ“t take into account migratory movements which could compensate in germany for the lower fertility.
In the German case, migratory movements don't compensate anymore. It was true in the 1990s when all the Germans from eastern Europe and Russia were relocating to Germany, but since the end of the 1990s almost all of them have already relocated and migration to Germany is now very low (economic migrants go in their majority to Spain, the British Isles, Scandinavia, even Italy, but not Germany).

This is a table comparing the net migration to France and Germany in recent years (figures come from the French and German statistical offices). Net migration is the difference between people moving into the country and people moving out of the country. Note that net migration to France is generaly considered low (compared to Spain or the UK), so that says something about the very low net migration of Germany.

Code:
Net migration   Germany    France
    2003       +142,645   +100,000
    2004        +82,543   +105,000
    2005        +78,953    +95,000
    2006        +25,000    +95,000
Quote:
Originally Posted by flash110 View Post
I can hardly imagine france to have more population than germany in the long furuture
According to the German statistical office, in 2050 Germany will have 68,743,000 inhabitants, assuming there's a net migration of +100,000 every year until 2050, which is more than what's happening at the moment (see migration figures above). If the net migration is only +50,000 every year, then the population of Germany in 2050 will be only about 65 million.

In comparison, according to the French statistical office, in 2050 metropolitan France will have 69,961,000 inhabitants, assuming there's a net migration of +100,000 every year until 2050. Including the overseas departments and territories, then the population of the entire France in 2050 would be about 73.5 million. If the net migration is only +50,000 every year, then the population of metropolitan France in 2050 will be only 66,973,000 and the population of the entire France about 70.5 million.


To sum up these (official) population projections:

Code:
Population in 2050      Germany     Metropolitan France     Entire France
(excl. overseas) (incl. overseas) (mig. +100,000/year) 68,743,000 69,961,000 73,500,000 (mig. +50,000/year) 65,000,000 66,973,000 70,500,000
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