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Old Posted Jun 10, 2019, 2:01 PM
Marty_Mcfly's Avatar
Marty_Mcfly Marty_Mcfly is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: St. John's, NL
Posts: 7,185
Some insight to the federal election and polling predictions (via 338Canada):



Liberals and Conservatives are in a statistical tie, and the Green are soon set to overtake the NDP. Since the beginning of the year, the Liberals are -13%, Conservatives +17%, NDP -4%, Greens +2% and Peoples Party -0.5% provincially.

The data from 338 is simulated through polling, voting habits, and previous results. Based on these numbers if an election were held today, the Liberals would win 4 seats and the Conservatives would win 3.

Based off numbers alone, the NDP have fallen to third place in St. John's East, the most likely seat for them to win in the province. The polling doesn't take into consideration the fact that Jack Harris is running in the district again, but with a regional poll having the NDP at just 9% regional support even he may have an uphill battle to climb if he wants to win back his seat.
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