Posted Apr 23, 2014, 2:22 AM
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Triptastic Gen X Snoozer
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Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: San Francisco
Posts: 22,207
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Quote:
Originally Posted by simms3_redux
^^^Well, there is the whole planning/environmental review/entitlement/approval process that takes a few centuries in SF.  Tishman Speyer has some other land working its way through entitlements, I believe (worth somewhere between 900,000-1,000,000 SF). There's also TMG's proposal at First, and that land on Townsend just traded hands yesterday, pre-entitled and zoned for around 300,000 SF. There's also the question of rent growth...I wouldn't be surprised if we're getting to a point where land valuations have to come down on office entitled parcels in order for office developers to make something pencil out if they plan for anything less than "build to core" 10+ year holds. As far into this cycle as we are, you can't underwrite 5%+ rent growths for that much longer going forward, LoL.
The city also has that RFP out for the latest TB block to go on the market, and it has gone down the office route instead of multifamily. I think developers/lenders should be wary of Prop M coming up...we're pretty fast approaching it. |
Aren't there a few fully-entitled office projects lying around? 350 Bush?
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"You need both a public and a private position." --Hillary Clinton, speaking behind closed doors to the National Multi-Family Housing Council, 2013
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