The NDP will be lucky to win 15 seats. The Liberals falling apart would probably make it worse for them overall, although it might give the NDP back a few Winnipeg seats that would have gone Tory if the Liberals had siphoned off enough NDP votes. Motivation for NDP voters is going to be at an all-time low (at least since 1988), so you can probably knock off a few points from whatever the poll numbers are showing.
If things go really wrong you could have the NDP down below 10. The situation reminds me of other clapped-out governments that got destroyed after being in office too long - Blakeney in Saskatchewan vs. Grant Devine and Hatfield in New Brunswick being shut out 58-0 by Frank McKenna. Manitoba is the least landslide-prone of all the provinces so it won't be quite on those epic proportions but by local standards it will be a rout.
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