Quote:
Originally Posted by Docere
Ohio seems to have become another Missouri.
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it's trending that way at the moment, but these things can always change.
as discussed earlier in this thread, the larger a metro area is, and the more it dominates its state, the more likely that state was to go blue in this election. not only does a larger metro area simply mean more suburban voters to counterbalance the rural vote, but those large metro area suburban voters also tend to be bluer compared to smaller metros (with some exceptions of course, like the austin vs. dallas/houston inversion in texas).
it's no coincidence that the 3 midwest states with the largest margins for biden are also home to the midwest's 3 largest metro areas: chicagoland, metro detroit, and the twin cities.
the ohio and missouri set-up of 2 or 3 medium-sized major metros seems to produce relatively fewer blue suburbanites to offset the small town/farm vote.
wisconsin is a bit of an outlier here in that it's not dominated by a single large metro, but the 1 - 2 punch of milwaukee and ultra-liberal (by midwest standards) madison was just
barely enough to squeak out a very narrow biden win.
Midwest states - biden vs. trump margin:
IL (20 EV): +17.0
MN (10 EV): +7.1
MI (16 EV): +2.8
WI (10 EV): +0.6
OH (18 EV): +8.0
IA (6 EV): +8.3
KS (6 EV): +15.2
MO (10 EV): +15.3
IN (11 EV): +16.1
NE (5 EV): +19.1
SD (3 EV): +26.2
ND (3 EV): +33.3