Quote:
Originally Posted by Marty_Mcfly
And with that....
FINAL PREDICTIONS - NL RIDINGS
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And results. Some predictions were pretty close, others not so much.
PREDICTION %/ ACTUAL%/ DIFFERENCE
Avalon
Matthew Chapman (CON): 38% / 31.0% /
7%
Ken MacDonald (LIB-INC): 36% / 46.1% /
10.1%
Lea Movelle (NDP): 16% / 17.6% /
1.6%
Greg Malone (GRN): 9% / 5.4% /
3.6%
Nathan Moore (PPC): 1% / N/A
Prediction: Conservative GAIN
Correct? NO.
Bonavista-Burin-Trinity
Churence Rogers (LIB-INC): 46% / 45.7% /
1.7%
Sharon Vokey (CON): 43% / 39.5 % /
3.5%
Matthew Cooper (NDP): 10% / 12.0% /
2.0%
Kelsey Reichel (GRN): 1% / 2.9% /
1.9%
Prediction: Liberal HOLD
Correct? YES
Coast of Bays-Central-Notre Dame
Scott Simms (LIB-INC): 55% / 48.2% /
7.2%
Alex Bracci (CON): 36% / 35.5% /
0.5%
Noel Joe (NDP): 8% / 12.3% /
4.3%
Bryon White (GRN): 1% / 4.0% /
3.0%
Prediction: Liberal HOLD
Correct: YES
Labrador
Yvonne Jones (LIB-INC): 39% / 42.3% /
3.3%
Larry Flemming (CON): 37% / 31.2% /
6.8%
Michelene Gray (NDP): 23% / 24.6% /
1.6%
Tyler Colbourne (GRN): 1% / 2.0%
1.0%
Prediction: Liberal HOLD
Correct: YES
Long Range Mountains
Gudie Hutchings (LIB-INC): 58% / 47.4% /
11.6%
Josh Eisses (CON): 21% / 28.3% /
7.3%
Holly Pike (NDP): 19% / 19.8%
0.8%
Lucas Knill (GRN): 2% / 3.5% /
1.5%
Robert Miles (Veterans Coalition): 0% / N/A
Prediction: Liberal HOLD
Correct: YES
St. John's East
Jack Harris (NDP): 35% / 46.9% /
11.9%
Nick Whalen (LIB-INC): 33% / 33.2% /
0.2%
Jodey Wall (CON): 29% / 18.1% /
11.8%
David Peters (GRN): 3% / 1.8%
1.2%
Prediction:
NDP GAIN
Correct: YES
St. John's South - Mount Pearl
Seamus O'Regan (LIB-INC): 40% / 50.9% /
10.9%
Ann Marie Anonsen (NDP): 29% / 27.1% /
1.9%
Terry Martin (CON): 26% / 19.1% /
6.9%
Alexandra Hayward (GRN): 3% / 1.8% /
1.2%
Benjamin Ruckpaul (PPC): 2% / 0.8%
1.2%
David Jones (Christian Heritage): 0% / N/A
Prediction: Liberal HOLD
Correct: YES
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Closest predictions: Nick Whalen, LIB (0.2%), Alex Bracci, CON (0.5%), Holly Pike, NDP (0.8%)
Worst predictions: Jack Harris, NDP (11.9%), Jodey Wall, CON (11.8%), Gudie Hutchings, LIB (11.6%)
Average absolute error per party:
Liberal: 6.4%
Conservative: 6.3%
NDP: 3.4%
Green: 1.9%
- Looks like in rural NL (minus Avalon) I overestimated Liberal support. I was expecting over 50% for Hutchings and Simms considering their relative popularity.
- Pretty good on Conservative support in Coast of Bays and Bonavista. Too low in Long Range Mountains (I thought the candidate was too weak to get that number of votes), a little too high for Avalon and Labrador. Way off the mark in St. John's.
- NDP support overall pretty good MINUS Jack Harris, who I thought would be a bit lower. Thought that'd be a closer race than it actually was.
- Avalon I overestimated Green support. Throw that extra 4% on the Liberals, plus move a few conservatives points to the Liberals, and that was it. Thought vote split would be more of a problem with the Green vote.
- I think I'm the only person to predict the Conservative upsurge in Bonavista-Burin-Trinity. People can act surprised about it, but I'm not. They did well in Coast of Bays too, but more pundits predicted that.
Overall:
- The Liberals fell back to the historic levels of support in the province. There honestly was nowhere to go but down for them after a historic high. Their numbers are pretty even across the entire province.
- Conservatives a bit below their historic average, though the rural/urban divide is evident possibly for the first time in our provinces history. They averaged 18.6% in St. John's and 33.1% elsewhere.
- NDP finished near their result from 2015. Vote share up slightly in rural NL, about even (maybe slightly less) in St. John's.
- Green had a historic showing (3.1% provincially). Highest in Avalon with Greg Malone, lowest in St. John's East and St. John's South. Very surprised to see the rural Green candidates outperform the urban ones.