Social Media Part 2: The Home Stretch
Today is the last day of campaigning; once the clock strikes midnight tonight the candidates will have nothing else to do but sit back and wait for the results (or phone around to electorate to ask if they need rides to polls
). I've already done a real in-depth analysis of social media momentum in the weeks leading up to the election, and there are certainly some candidates who were coming in strong, especially some we weren't quite expecting. But how are things looking now, in the most critical period of the campaign?
A follow up to the original post, we're looking at the 4-day period from Wednesday, October 16th to Sunday, October 20th. In between those days there were some debates (BBT) and media appearances (CBC SJE/SJS/Avalon). Any possible sway based on those events?
Avalon
Ken Macdonald (LIB-INC)
Oct 16: 1548/1626
Oct 20: 1547/1625
4-day change:
-1/
-1
Matthew Chapman (CON)
Oct 16: 671/688
Oct 20: 721/739
4-day change:
+50/
+51
Lea Movelle (NDP)
Oct 16: 623/632
Oct 20: 656/666
4-day change: +33/+34
Greg Malone (GRN)
Oct 16: 993/1006
Oct 20: 1033/1046
4-day change: +40/+40
Nathan Moore (PPC) - No social media presence
Bonavista-Burin-Trinity
Churence Rogers (LIB-INC)
Oct 16: 2047/2093
Oct 20: 2055/2102
4-day change: +8/+9
Sharon Vokey (CON)
Oct 16: 559/567
Oct 20: 572/580
4-day change: +13/+13
Matthew Cooper (NCP) - No social media presence
Kelsey Reichel (GRN)
Oct 16: 331/336
Oct 20: 331/336
4-day change: 0/0
Coast of Bays - Central - Notre Dame
Scott Simms (LIB-INC)
Oct 16: 4645/4736
Oct 20: 4651/4743
4-day change: +6/+7
Alex Bracci (CON)
Oct 16: 283/296
Oct 20: 299/312
4-day change: +16/+16
Noel Joe (NDP)
Oct 16: 498/504
Oct 20: 507/513
4-day change: +9/+9
Bryon White (GRN)
Oct 16: 282
Oct 20: 286
4-day change: +4
Labrador
Yvonne Jones (LIB-INC)
Oct 16: 9907/9854
Oct 20: 9904/9851
44-day change:
-3/
-3
Larry Flemming (CON)
Oct 16: 819/826
Oct 20: 941/950
4-day change:
+122/
+124
Michelene Grey (NDP)
Oct 16: 528/536
Oct 20: 614/620
4-day change:
+86/
+84
Tyler Colbourne (GRN) - Page came online and disappeared within 2 weeks
Long Range Mountains
Gudie Hutchings (LIB-INC)
Oct 16: 5808/5895
Oct 20: 5815/5902
4-day change: +7/+7
Josh Eisses (CON)
Oct 16: 264/286
Oct 20: 270/292
4-day change: +6/+6
Holly Pike (NDP) - No social media presence
Lucas Knill (GRN)
Oct 16: 249/258
Oct 20: 248/257
4-day change:
-1/
-1
St. John's East
Nick Whalen (LIB-INC)
Oct 16: 2240/2310
Oct 20: 2270/2338
4-day change: +30/+28
Jodey Wall (CON)
Oct 16: 938/955
Oct 20: 971/987
4-day change: +33/+32
Jack Harris (NDP)
Oct 16: 3890/3884
Oct 20: 4035/4031
4-day change:
+145/
+147
David Peters (GRN) - No social media presence
St. John's South - Mount Pearl
Seamus O'Reagan (LIB-INC)
Oct 16: 11999/12488
Oct 20: 12016/12506
4-day change: +17/+18
Terry Martin (CON)
Oct 16: 705/724
Oct 20: 713/733
4-day change: +8/+9
Anne Marie Anonsen (NDP)
Oct 16: 305/312
Oct 20: 322/331
4-day change: +16/+19
Alexandra Hayward (GRN) - No social media presence
Ben Ruckpaul (PPC)
Oct 16: 203/216
Oct 20: 208/221
4-day change: +5/+5
-----------------------------
NOTES
- So who has the most momentum in the last 4 days?
Jack Harris. This shouldn't really come as a surprise, Jack was already a popular candidate, and I think the surging national NDP numbers at the end of the campaign are really helping him out.
- I didn't think
Labrador was going to be a race to watch, but the social media numbers are very interesting. Both the
Conservatives and
NDP are exploding on Facebook, whereas Yvonne Jones continues to lose page likes. Flemming and Gray account for the 2nd and 3rd highest 4 day gains, respectively.
-
Avalon will also be one to keep a close eye on. The
Conservatives, NDP and Greens all have considerable momentum. This will be a riding to watch for the impacts of vote-splitting, as I think the NDP and Greens both have strong results here Monday.
- Things have slowed down in
Coast of Bays-Central-Notre Dame and
Bonavista-Burin-Trinity. Conservatives still lead momentum, but it's nowhere near where it was previously. And things have stayed unchanged in
Long Range Mountains, still slow and boring there.