2009 Population Estimates
http://www.census.gov/popest/countie...ST2009-01.html
Since nobody's done this yet on the SA forum: Cty/2009 est/2008 est/2000 est Atascosa/44,633/43,925/38,874 Bandera/20,560/20,501/17,811 Bexar/1,651,448/1,621,304/1,397,813 Comal/114,525/110,119/78,748 Guadalupe/121,432/117,341/89,883 Kendall/34,053/32,923/23,965 Medina/44,728/44,228/39,462 Wilson/40,749/40,350/32,706 Total/2,072,749/2,030,691/1,719,262 Apologies that I don't have time to calculate the percentage change or get into demographics. I can tell you that SA is within 10k of Orlando (MSA) and within 19k of Cleveland (MSA), so we may see some moving up in the rankings with the 2010 census. |
One other thing. With Travis county now over a million people, Texas has five counties of over one million people. Two with over two million and one with over four million.
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a bit fuzzy but you can still make out the numbers.
I put them in order of 2009 est. ranking. http://farm5.static.flickr.com/4038/...e261910c_o.jpg |
I can see San Antonio being number 23 or 24 within 5 years.
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They need to hurry up and add Kerr County to an San Antonio CSA.
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Here's Texas stats:
Looks like South Texas (along border) kept up well and even performed better percentage-wise with the larger (top 4) cities. McAllen had 30% growth, Laredo 25% and Brownsville 18%. If McAllen keeps it up the pace, it could approach 1mil by 2020. It'll be interesting to see how they grow in the next 10 years; numbers-wise and the city in general. http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2744/...08e8ce9a_o.jpg |
Ahhh just think...if they were to combine the Austin & SA metros (3,777,203) then we'd jump up 13 spots and have bigger metro numbers than Seattle and San Diego...and we could get the NFL and more skyscrapers ;)
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But if that's the case, based on distance alone, (not the factors, like 25 percent employment transfer within, or general economic dependancy) we would have to combine a few other locations as MSA's as well. These are CSA's but not considered MSA. LA-LB-SA MSA with Riverside-SB-Ontario MSA (45 miles apart) combined pushes them to almost 18 million. SF-Oakland-Fremont MSA with SJ-SC MSA (41 miles apart) in combination with a couple other smaller MSA's pushes them to 7.4 mil. Combining DC-NoVA to Baltimore (42 miles apart) would bring them up to almost 8.4 million. Keep in mind, Dallas-FW has 35 mile distance. |
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Addendum: In my calculations, I consolidated Riverside with L.A. (yielding San Antonio an 'additional' +1 jump). Poor Pittsburgh, it gets surpassed by no less than NINE metropolitan areas in the space of NINE years! It would get surpassed by Portland, Cincinnati, Sacramento, Orlando, San Antonio, Kansas City, Las Vegas, Charlotte, and Austin. |
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It is unlikely Las Vegas will ever see the growth it has become accustom to. At the same time San Antonio's growth is likely to accelerate. |
Did you read what a wrote? Perhaps I should have bolded "an unlikely event". Anyway, even if Vegas sees a slowdown in growth by 5% and San Antonio sees a pick-up of 5%, Vegas will STILL outgrow San Antonio in the next 9 years.
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That being said, and since you've directly assaulted me, I'm going to give a rebuttal point by point. 1) When I said unlikely event, it was more directed at the general notion that every city has experienced a slow-down. 2) I did not imply that Las Vegas would pass San Antonio, I said it flat out. Even if Las Vegas sees a 15% slowdown in its growth rate, it will STILL pass San Antonio. 3) Orlando and San Antonio are the same size. Orlando WILL see a slowdown, you are right. However, San Antonio will likely also see a slowdown temporarily which will preclude us outgrowing them in the next few years. I.E. assume we see a slowdown of 5% over the nine years and that Orlando will see a slowdown of 10% over the nine years. Orlando will still be larger. 4) Sacramento is the seat of government of California. The fundamentals are there for it to make a decent recovery. Not amazing, but decent. 5) I'm just going to go ahead for the sake of it and split Riverside from L.A. (really just to piss you off) and voila! San Antonio just dropped a spot. Want to debate the merits of combining Riverside and L.A.? Try me. I'm sure you realize that Riverside and L.A. will eventually be a single metropolitan area (I WAS trying to be generous to San Antonio to, I guess, appease you). 6) You assume that other cities will not make a better recovery than San Antonio. Assume that three to four cities slightly smaller than San Antonio make a better economic recovery, see a pick up in growth, and then outgrow San Antonio. What cities could those possibly be? Austin and Charlotte are wonderful examples. To conclude, on balance it will probably be shown that San Antonio does NOT achieve a 23 or 24 spot within five years. However, within ten it is likely. Within 15 it is a practical guarantee. |
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It's highly unlikely that Vegas, Phoenix, and high performing cities in CA or FL will keep up their pace. Cities in Texas, OK and NC (as they've seemed to be performing better during the recession,) will probably pick up the slack for growth as well as other random cities as its anyones guess as to where the next population surge will happen (my guess is Mid-Atlantic and Utah/Idaho.)
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