Revitalization of Industrial Erie
 

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wow... that's a really ambitious coaster

^ yeah, it's supposedly going to be a very unique coaster. A lot of buzz has been generated among coaster enthusiasts internationally. The owner of the park has been dreaming of building it for years, but it has been delayed by zoning issues. The original Ravine Flyer was built in 1922 and dismantled in the '30s after a rider fell to his death. It's a great addition to Waldameer which lacked a big, signature ride. It's a cool, little old-style (one of the older parks in the US, I believe) amusment park though, kind of like a smaller Kennywood.

the water park seems to be a big draw... I remember thinking that was more impressive than the amusement park when I was there at age 10 or whatever

Right... I think "Water World" probably attracts more visitors than the rest of the park, but it seems to be improving with some more impressive rides... rather than just the same old "Paratrooper", "Dodgems", and "Tilt-A-Whirl" rides that you can find just about anywhere.

I like that roller coaster.

How is Erie's plastics industry doing?

First shipment of Biofuel from Port of Erie
 

For the first time since the 1970s when Shell and Sun Oil had facilities at the Port of Erie, a fuel product has been shipped out of Erie's port. Only this time instead of petroleum, it is biodiesel from Lake Erie Biofuels. The tanker Clipper Tobago arrived in port, loaded 5000 metric tons of biodiesel, and departed on 12/20 bound for Europe. Wonderful news for Lake Erie Biofuels (set to become one of nation's largest biofuel producers), the Port of Erie, and Great Lakes shipping.

http://www.globalerie.com/slideshow_tanker/images/5.jpg

http://www.globalerie.com/slideshow_tanker/images/3.jpg
photo credit: globalerie

Many photos of port activity can be seen here:

http://erieshipnews.blogspot.com/

PNC Bank's economic outlook for Erie MSA:

https://www.pnc.com/webapp/unsec/Req...f2d/R_Erie.pdf

^ Thanks for the info, Evergrey. A somewhat dismal outlook for Erie overall, eh? Nothing too surprising there... forecasting a continued downward trend in the manufacturing based economy... higher than average unemployment figures... seems to be the same story in Erie since I was but a wee lad.

The job growth and housing charts offer rather simplistic views though... a brief, yearlong period of very modest job growth, followed by an even more modest yearlong decline - not very telling of anything, given the short time period... as for housing, permits for new construction mirror the LERTA incentive timeframes offered to developers in the county, and thus not providing a real picture of actual growth.

Hey, speaking of Erie and GE locomotives, in the Jan. 2006 issue of Popular Mechanics, they had a cool story about GE's new hybrid locomotives. It also had a cool picture of the inside of the factory.

http://media.popularmechanics.com/im...d001_large.jpg

Article is here:
http://www.popularmechanics.com/tech...22.html?page=1

http://www.goerie.com/apps/pbcs.dll/...WS02/801220353


Nation grim, but we look good
Region doesn't fear reports of recession

BY JIM MARTIN
jim.martin@timesnews.com [more details]



Published: January 22. 2008 6:00AM

(Chris Sigmund / Erie Times-News)

Zoom | Buy this photo






Folks in Erie know a thing or two about recessions. History shows they arrive here sooner, last longer and cut more deeply.

But is one here already?

A recession is often defined as a decline in gross domestic product for two consecutive quarters. While there's widespread concern about the direction of the nation's economy, it's not clear if Erie has even started down that road.

In fact, based on local economic indicators, a case could be made that our region is bucking a national trend.

Erie County's unemployment rate fell from 5.2 percent in October to 4.5 percent in November.


"The employment data we have looks real good," said James Kurre, professor of economics at Penn State Behrend. "We were below the national average, and that's only happened 22 (months) out of the last 18 years."

Kurt Duska, president of Engineered Plastics Inc., said nothing has happened in recent months to suggest his business is slowing. In fact, he's seen tool companies recovering and local businesses taking advantage of a soft dollar to expand exports.

"I would say, compared to three years ago, our employment is up by 25 percent and our sales are up by 40 percent," he said.

The bottom line: If a downturn is lurking around the next corner, Duska hasn't spotted it.

Robin Scheppner goes even further. The owner and manager of American Tinning and Galvanizing Co. said her 77-year-old company enjoyed its best year ever in 2007.


"We've had phenomenal growth over the last couple years," she said.

Scheppner said her company's biggest customers are equally upbeat and planning investments in the months ahead.

"The picture is extremely bright," she said. "Manufacturing is alive and well on the corner of 12th and Cherry."

Of course, little is proved by isolated success stories.

"The plural of 'anecdote' is not 'data,'" Kurre said.


At the same time, he said, neither the anecdotes nor the data make a convincing case that Erie is in a recession.

Although holiday sales were off nationally, business on Peach Street was brisk by most accounts.

And while the national housing crisis has many worried, Kurre said, "we didn't have the bubble blow up to begin with, so we don't have to worry about it popping."

So how does all this add up to a recession? According to a front-page article in Friday's Wall Street Journal, Moody's Economy.com has identified Erie as one of several dozen metropolitan areas that appear to be in recession.

Stephen Onyeiwu, professor of economics at Allegheny College in Meadville, said that judgment might have been based on a recent report by the Federal Reserve Bank in Philadelphia.


"They found the recession had already begun in the manufacturing sector of Pennsylvania," Onyeiwu said. "One of the reasons is that business investment is down, which means manufacturers are not buying new equipment."

Onyeiwu doesn't dispute those findings, but wonders how precisely they apply here.

"They are lumping everyone together," he said. "You cannot say authoritatively this is what's happening. I would say generally in the aggregate that the national economy has slowed considerably."

Ralph Pontillo, president of the Manufacturers' Association of Northwest Pennsylvania, worries that the economy is moving in the wrong direction.

"I think there is a deep conviction that unless something changes in a meaningful way ... a recession is inevitable," Pontillo said. "I think most of the arguments today are how to avoid that."


Pontillo urges the government to make adjustments to improve the business climate. He's also a fan of stimulus packages that would return money to taxpayers.

Economists often note that a recession is part of a natural economic cycle. Natural or not, Pontillo thinks it should be put off for as long as possible.

"People get hurt in bad economic times," he said. "It's the last thing we need right now."

JIM MARTIN can be reached at (814) 724-6397, 870-1668 or by e-mail.

Going Global A Good Thing
An increasingly global economy could prove to be a good thing if we should find ourselves in a recession.

That's perhaps why General Electric Co. noted in its quarterly-earnings report Friday that more than half its sales are from abroad.

"It's like a stock portfolio," said Todd Nesbit, who teaches economics at Penn State Behrend. "It means you are better off in terms of risk. That's what having a global economy is."


Nesbit, who predicts the next recession will be mild and relatively short, said globalization is part of the reason why. "Having a global economy, when the dollar is getting weak, it brings in more sales to us. It is also going to moderate our good periods," he said.

speaking of strategic location... do you remember when there was discussion of Erie getting a "Superstation" like Atlanta's TBS or Chicago's WGN a few years ago? I remember that some people thought it was a good location due to its equidistant location between the major markets of Buffalo, Pittsburgh and Cleveland. Wonder whatever happened to that idea...

^ yeah, the local CBS affiliate, WSEE, was set to broadcast as a national "superstation" a few years ago, but some FCC rules changes stopped it from happening.

Strangely enough, WSEE is the CBS affiliate throughout the Caribbean and in some parts of Central America... I have no idea why.

Erie's location is becoming more and more popular for shipping and logistics firms though. DHL is currently expanding their operations in Erie to be one of the largest hubs in their firm. Also, a number of smaller logistics firms servicing the rail and trucking industries seem to be setting up shop all the time. With the finally approved ERI runway extension, the major air cargo complex will hopefully break ground.

Erie is a major focus in this NYT article about the upcoming Democratic primary

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/08/us...nnsylvania.htm

the Cleveland Fed did an economic profile on the Erie MSA back in January

http://www.clevelandfed.org/research...8/01regact.cfm

01.22.08

Regional Activity

The Erie Metropolitan Statistical Area

By Tim Dunne and Kyle Fee

The Erie metropolitan statistical area (MSA) is located in the northwest corner of Pennsylvania on Lake Erie. Home to 279,811 people, Erie, a Great Lakes city, has an employment history of heavy industry and manufacturing. In 2006, Erie was still heavily invested in manufacturing industries, having about an 80 percent higher proportion of its workforce in manufacturing than the nation as a whole. Meanwhile, Erie’s service industry workforce was proportionately higher in health services industries relative to the nation and lower in information, financial, and professional business and services industries.

http://www.clevelandfed.org/research...01regact-1.gif

Looking at the components of annual employment growth in the Erie MSA, the strongest driver of employment growth from year to year has been the service sector industries of education, health, leisure, government and other services. Not surprisingly, manufacturing employment is the biggest drag on Erie’s employment growth.

http://www.clevelandfed.org/research...01regact-2.gif

Erie’s most recent employment growth has come from growth in tourism-related industries. Erie’s total nonfarm employment growth from October 2006 to October 2007 is 0.7 percent, while employment in the leisure and hospitality industries has jumped 6.6 percent over the same period. On the down side, goods-producing industries lost employment at a rate substantially above the national rate.

http://www.clevelandfed.org/research...01regact-3.gif

Since the last business cycle peak in March 2001, Erie lost 0.9 percent of its total nonfarm employment, compared to Pennsylvania’s gain of 1.6 percent and the nation’s gain of 4.4 percent. From its lowest employment levels in July of 2003, Erie has expanded its employment 4.5 percent. Over that same period, Pennsylvania’s employment grew 3.7 percent and the nation’s grew 6.5 percent.

http://www.clevelandfed.org/research...01regact-4.gif

Compared to other cities on Lake Erie, Erie actually has performed reasonably well. While employment is still below the city’s 2001 level (similar to the decline experienced by its neighbor to the north, Buffalo, New York), the Erie labor market has been stronger than Cleveland’s or Toledo’s.

http://www.clevelandfed.org/research...01regact-5.gif

Disaggregating employment into manufacturing and nonmanufacturing components, we see that the Erie metropolitan area underperformed relative to the U.S. average in both sectors. Since the last business cycle peak in March 2001, Erie lost 25.5 percent of its manufacturing jobs, while the nation lost 17.5 percent. This manufacturing drag on Erie’s economy is particularly important because Erie has a much higher share of manufacturing than the United States as a whole. Alternatively, Erie’s nonmanufacturing employment growth has tracked the national trend pretty closely over the past six years.

http://www.clevelandfed.org/research...01regact-6.gif

Like Buffalo and Cleveland, Erie’s manufacturing employment has suffered a steep decline, though the time-series patterns for Buffalo and Cleveland differ. Erie’s steepest drop occurred in the 2001–2003 period, but since mid-2003 it has stabilized somewhat, while in Buffalo and Cleveland it has continued to contract. Toledo’s decline has mirrored that of the United States, though recently, Toledo is showing some relative weakness.

http://www.clevelandfed.org/research...01regact-7.gif

Where Erie looks quite different from the other cities along Lake Erie is in the growth of nonmanufacturing employment. Erie has consistently added nonmanufacturing jobs at a faster rate than the other Lake Erie cities. Erie’s 6.8 percent nonmanufacturing growth exceeds Buffalo’s 2.7 percent gain, Toledo’s 0.6 percent loss, and Cleveland’s 1.5 percent loss.

http://www.clevelandfed.org/research...01regact-8.gif

The relatively slow growth of Erie’s labor market is also reflected in the metro area’s statistics on per capita personal income. Over the last six years, Erie’s nominal growth in per capita income has been substantially lower than Pennsylvania’s or the United States’. Nominal per capita income grew in Erie at 17.9 percent, while Pennsylvania and the United States had similar rates of 23.5 percent and 22.7 percent, respectively. Moreover, Erie has substantially lower per capita income. In 2006, the Erie metro area’s per capita income was only 79 percent that of Pennsylvania’s and the United States'.

http://www.clevelandfed.org/research...01regact-9.gif

^ Interesting comparison with the other, larger Lake Erie industrial cities.

One of the main challenges Erie faces, and the reason for the its lagging behind PA in per capita income and the smaller financial and information sectors, is the fact that the region has long undervalued education - forcing college grads and advanced degree holders to look elsewhere for employment... this is displayed by the fact that Erie wage scales are 20%!!! less than average.

It's interesting that Erie has the second highest number of college students per capita in the state (after State College, obviously), yet a very small percentage stay in Erie after graduating.

Erie is home to the nation's largest medical school?

Yeah, surprising but true. In terms of total enrollment LECOM has become the nation's largest (recently surpassng the U of Illinois-Chicago med school with the entering class of 2010). In its relatively short existence (founded in 1992), it has definitely made an impression in medical education, attracting students from all 50 states (you should see the license plates in the parking lots... most are not from PA) to its main campus in suburban Erie and to its branch in the Tampa Bay area (Bradenton, FL). It's really been a positive presence in the Erie community.