Pleasantly surprised by this development. Looks good! Hopefully it doesn't get watered down

Hopefully it breaks ground this year or next year by summer.

The city council needs to just rubber stamp approve this thing and try to get a ground breaking ASAP because if they wait and the Coyote begins to drop (metaphor of cartoon where he runs of the cliff and is suspended in mid air before falling in to the abyss) on this economy it will not get financed.

Even the Fed and Goldman Sachs are saying the white collar blood letting of jobs is right around the corner so lets keep our fingers crossed that this puppy can get started. What chances do you guys give it :shrug:

* I wonder if cities are just saying to themselves hey lets try to get as much construction started right now so we can have some economic activity going on because if they dilly dally like normal in "good times" they will miss out on the construction jobs etc.

Not necessarily. We are in just the weirdest damn economy right now.

rn we've got a higher unemployment rate than anytime since the great depression and a looming eviction crisis, so obviously thing are not great. To combat this the federal reserve has been printing money at an exorbitant rate, just giving anyone with a checkbook and a smile all the cash they want, partially to dull the effects of the crisis on the general public and partially because the WH wants to see the stock market recover.

On that latter front this response has been extremely effective, the stock market has recovered and even grown since March. But it's a bit a facade, the stock market has recovered its previous numerical value because by printing all this money dollars are worth less aka inflation. So right now if you own a bunch of dollars, you'll want to turn them into something else because they're losing value. You could exchange them for another currency, but nearly every other government is doing the same thing so that's not as good an option. Or, you can convert them into a fixed asset aka real estate.

Ideally you'd like to buy something that's already there, but property owners know all of the above so they're no looking to sell. So another option is to build in a safe market. Because there's so much money floating around borrowing is cheap, and labor is cheap because everyone is looking for a job. San Diego is a biotech hub, and biotech is one of the few growing markets (for reasons I think should be fairly clear). The stars have aligned to make seemingly crazy projects feasible.

Oh and if you're wondering what the downside to all this is, you know besides all the death and homelessness and violent social unrest, inflation hurts anyone who can't readily convert their dollars into something else. Usually retirees are hit hardest. Also wage growth tends to lag behind inflation, so you'll be getting the same paycheck every week but it won't buy as much. For people living on minimum wage, which rarely changes, thing are going to get even worse than they are now.

Great Analysis Will
 

One question though. Is there enough demand for biotech office space in DTSD to make the project on the Manchester land pencil (the new proposal from biotech giant guy forgot name), fill up Horton Plaza for Stockdale Capital, and this proposal on Petco Lot? That is a TON of new office space needing to be filled :shrug:

Like someone else noted a few posts ago there is already a lot of space from Del Mar Heights thru UTC/Sorrento Mesa being built or repurposed for biotech.

Yeah, with so much free money floating around projects are being proposed/built with weaker and weaker economic justifications. The markets are spooked and acting irrationally, everyone is dumping money in what "feels" safe without really thinking if they're overbuilding. It's unlikely San Diego will need this much biotech office space in the near future, but it seems more likely than most other things to invest in.

But at a certain point actually having people inhabit the office space can be secondary to just preserving value. With borrowing so cheap, you can afford to leave these buildings partially filled for years. As long as you think that eventually, someone will lease the space it can be a reasonable investment.

Also MPG and the Petco Lot are strategic investments. A big investor like Manchester or Brookfield will put their hat in the ring now just to preserve the opportunity to build when the economy is better. There costs associated with that, including the cost of cancelling the whole thing if the economy doesn't recover at the rate you're expecting it to, but the potential benefits often outweigh them.

Would have been so good!

This would have been a game changer. They should have just gone with this with design with the trolley. I always don't understand why there is not a line serving the uptown neighborhoods and Balboa Park. This is the line people would actually use; it is like they don't want mass transit to work, but they are just going through the motions.

Keep in mind this is one of two proposals. The second is by the Padres and is supported by the downtown partnership, chamber and others. It's much more underwhelming...

City picks developer for developing new Sports Arena/Entertainment district:

https://www.kpbs.org/news/2020/aug/2...eloper-build-/

Here's the virtual open house to see both proposals:

https://eastvillagequarterinput.org/

Wow, there's a pretty good chance Brookfield might end up developing both the sports arena and the petco lot (Brookfield has the proposal we're all drooling over). In a single swoop they'll have gone from relative outsiders in San Diego development to being mentioned in the same breath as Bosa, Manchester, and Stockdale.

Do you think the Padres' proposal is at risk considering Cisterra is part of their JV and the city is now withholding rent payments for 101 Ash?

Voice of San Diego - City Is Halting Rent Payments on 101 Ash St.

That's a public RFP process, so legally the answer is required to be no. If the city even so much as mentions an unproven claim that's currently subject to litigation in its justification for selection, it can expect a lawsuit for acting in an "arbitrary and capricious" manner. Quite frankly, if Cisterra loses there's a good chance they will sue the city regardless if it really played a part or not.

The RFQ/RFP for East Village Quarter doesn't seem to be accessible without creating a vendor login on PlanetBids, however some of the addendum are. I can't see the scoring categories, but the city makes it pretty clear in the Q&A that they can change how they weight them at their discretion.

Source: THIRD ADDENDUM to Request for Qualifications of Development Teams For the Disposition and Development of East Village Quarter
https://www.planetbids.com/portal/po...ompanyID=24128

"Arbitrary and capricious" is a legal term, so its meaning may not line up with what the colloquial meaning of the phrase might be.

I'm no lawyer, but the way I've always understood the concept as it relates to RFPs is that public agencies have broad discretion to choose among proposals, but not with who they do business with.

So for example, say a city has some land to lease and gets two proposals to build on it. One proposes to build an apartment complex, a school, some community spaces, and some stores. The other is a billionaire who offers double the rent of anyone else if he can build a giant mansion. The city can say their community will benefit more from additional housing, retail, etc than the extra rent, even if they didn't mention this explicitly in the RFP.

Now lets say I'm a city manager awarding contracts to mow the lawn in front of city hall. You run a gardening company, and submitted the lowest bid to perform the work, but last week I heard you ran over someone's dog. I call you an evil, dog hating monster and give the contract to someone else. That was illegal, because you running over a dog has nothing to do with your employees' ability to mow a lawn. I am using public funds to push a personal vendetta, and acting in an "arbitrary and capricious" manner.

This comes up because at this point there's no proof Cisterra has done anything illegal, or even anything wrong. In court they are going to argue that they didn't know 101 Ash St was full of asbestos, that it was the city's responsibility to check before buying the building and tearing out all the walls, and that the city is trying to punish them rather than admit it acted irresponsibly. And even if Cisterra did screw over the city by selling it a lemon, that alone is hardly proof that they won't build what they say they'll build now.

Not that the city even needs to say that, they can legitimately say that the Brookfield proposal has more housing, a larger investment, etc instead. Cisterra might still sue though just to gain a bargaining chip for the fight over 101 Ash.

Thanks for the breakdown! I hope whatever the decision is, the city and the developer can keep delays to a minimum during negotiation. The Padres are saying they could break ground as soon as 2025, and Brookfield isn't willing to comment on any potential construction date.

Either way, it's a long haul between now and golden shovels in the ground.

Welp, I told you guys to prepare for the 1970s experience of watching your transit dreams bite it. Guess here we are.

Internal audit finds SANDAG leadership approved improper payments

Full report

I'm trying to wrap my head around all of this but the audit basically alleges that Ikhrata has been running SANDAG as his own personal fiefdom, without any form of oversight, and has used that power abusively. In detail he's being accused of:

-refusing to acknowledge there are any limits to his ability to hire, fire, promote, transfer, or give monetary bonuses to SANDAG employees

-lying to the SANDAG board that they are not allowed any form of oversight, and claiming that he can essentially make his own rules as far as the above goes

-paying several retiring SANDAG employees large severance payments without proper justification (there's a strong implication this was done to keep them from badmouthing him to the press/the SANDAG board)

-giving out monetary bonuses and pay raises to SANDAG employees with little documentation, and sometimes without clear justification

-promoting employees to executive level positions without competition, possibly violating state discrimination laws

-changing employees from full time into at-will employment (so they could be fired without standard process)

-nearly doubling SANDAG's overall salary costs for no real benefit, and hiding this from the SANDAG Board

-harassing the auditor while she was trying to make this report

Ikhrata has responded that this is the way things have always been run at SANDAG, that the Board's oversight role consists of their ability to fire him, and that this auditor is biased against him. Probably not the best move, considering this audit was commissioned by the state after the failures of the last SANDAG administration...

Eh. I'll believe this is impactful if he's fired. Till then, meh.

As I've said before, Ikhrata is a goner. He proposed something that will never fly in our community - talk about failing to "read a room" - and now he's going to get *rightfully* run out of town for this failure.

He proposed a pie-in-the-sky hundred-billion-dollar plus transit plan in the middle of a pandemic (not his fault) to a city and region that are only prepared for incremental change.

On top of that, he proposed a transit system that's ill-suited to San Diego's multi-nodal employment patterns and completely ignored the unique needs of a long and narrow region with employment centers scattered along nearly the region's entire length.

Why he didn't go for the low-hanging fruit of a Purple Line trolley extension, a commuter rail along the 15-corridor and the long promised expansion of the north county freeways (perhaps with transit built into the median)??? Simple, ego and failure to "read the room".

Whether or not he's fired (he will be, whether now for this; or later when his plan crashes and burns) - his plan is DOA and there's really no excuse for his failure to "read the room" and propose something that has even an infinitesimal chance of being implemented...

I don't agree, nor would I be as over dramatic. At the end of the day we need to transform our transportation system to get folks out of their cars to meet state climate law. Low hanging fruit won't meet state law, Gary proved that time and time again with his failed plans that got tossed out of court. That's what this whole process has been about for Hasan--big change to meet state law. Incrementalism in the face the climate crisis isn't gonna cut it. ;)

This is a catch-22.

Reading the room = catering to NIMBYS.

If we had a non-controversial do nothing in there giving us the same half-assed crap SANDAG has put out the last many decades, people on this board would be complaining about how insufficient the transportation plan is.

I’m not a fan of the corruption that has been swirling but I’m totally behind the plan he put out. Just because San Diegan’s will likely reject it doesn’t mean it’s not a good plan. In fact, that likely means it IS a good plan.

This is the city that had a chance to buy Miramar for $1 in the 1950s and turned it down

This is the city that turned down a smart city hall redevelopment about a decade ago that would have solved their impending leasing issues, and now it’s blown up in their faces with the old Sempra building

This is the city that time and time again has made some of the stupidest, narrow-minded urban planning decisions in the country.

I don’t consider a plan that fails to “read the room” bad at all; in fact, the “room” needs to be told they’ve f’d this city for far too long IMO

IS RETAIL DOWNTOWN DEAD?

So, the last remaining tenant of Horton Plaza closed. Jimbos Horton Plaza has only a few days left.

They are in the middle of a construction zone so I guess it shouldn’t be surprising, but there seems to be a really depressing void in downtown lately.

I know some of this is related to COVID-19, but I have to wonder what plans there are (if any) for the future of retail downtown.

There’s literally nothing left. It’s just restaurants and condos. Over the years I know there’s been proposals that have floated about putting a Target or Home Depot or other similar things, but it seems like they’ve all died.

I’m not sure what will be in the ground level of the Horton Plaza redevelopment, they are extremely vague about it.

I think there was supposed to be high end retail at Manchester’s Pacific Gateway and that crashed and burned.

Is there just not enough people living down here for retail? Horton Plaza did good for awhile, so I’m having trouble understand why this is such a huge void downtown.

Whatever the plan is - it will require a tax passed by 2/3rd’s under state law. A lot of trains and no freeways - state climate law or not - simply won’t get the votes (after broken promises re freeways through past tax measures)... while the courts can invalidate SANDAG’s plans... they lack the power to impose a funding mechanism over the voter’s rejection. Any plan must start with the goal of securing 2/3rd county voter approval for the underlying funding mechanism or it’s all for naught, isn’t it?

Whether you (or I) like it - any plan needs 2/3rds voter approval for the underlying funding mechanism. Without it - there’s nothing. Courts may be able to invalidate SANDAG plans they deem out of compliance with climate law - they lack power to impose a funding mechanism (tax) - only the voters (your dreaded NIMBYS) can do that. Seems silly not to craft a plan designed to win approval of the very people who... *checks notes* must ultimately approve the darn tax...

The city that also turned down a bold and extensive subway system that would’ve served all of San Diego county, for a cheaper but weak light rail line

I'm not going to argue with the rest of your post, since I kinda sorta agree with it, but this myth is one of my pet peeves. The Navy never offer to sell Miramar to San Diego, not for any price.

In late 1947, after the mass drawdowns post-WW2, San Diego asked for and the Navy gave permission for joint use at Miramar. There was an understanding that this was for cargo flights and maybe a few international flights, so long as they didn't interfere with Navy operations. Lindbergh would be kept open to serve the majority of passenger flights. The city was given a 50 year lease on half the aircraft parking areas and development rights to everything south of the runways.

At the time Miramar's runways were too short for commercial airliners, so they would need to be extended before commercial service could start. San Diego at the time was broke, the curtailment of war protection left the unemployment rates at around 33%. In 1948 the city asked the CAB (predecessor to the FAA) for funding. The CAB declined, citing more urgent priorities and that San Diego could make due with just Lindbergh for a few years.

In 1949 congress approved the Woods Plan, which designated Miramar as a Master Jet Station and primary base for all Navy aircraft on the west coast. Funds to expand the airbase weren't appropriated until 1951. From 1949-1951 the city tried very hard to find a way to coexist on Miramar with the Navy, but it was not to be. In 1950 the Navy retook the entire aircraft parking area to make room for Korean War training. In 1952, after the Master Jet Station was completed, the city ceded their development rights under pressure from the Navy. By then it was clear level joint would never be possible.

Do you recall what happened in the in-between time when the Navy transferred Miramar to the Marines? I thought that was the big opportunity that SD had to claim the airport.

2/3rds is a high threshold. Let's see if the state keeps it at 2/3rds...

it's up to the voters, not the state, as the 2/3rds threshold is part of the constitution of California.

proposition 13 (passed in 1978) includes a requirement of 2/3rd's majority voter approval for any increase in special taxes (i.e., non-general fund taxes).

the current proposed changes to prop. 13 - labeled proposition 15 - doesn't touch the 2/3rd's requirement and only attempts to alter the method of property tax assessments for commercial properties (recall prop. 13 also caps property tax increases to 1% annually).

the problems are not NIMBYS - they are un-creative politicians and planners that can't successfully market targeted, popular transportation plans (and their associated funding mechanism) to 2/3rds majorities of voters.

pretending that the rules don't apply to "own the NIMBYS" is silly and leads to zero progress.

We'll see.

At some point, the rubber has to hit the road. SANDAG relies on (in addition to the state and mainly federal transpo funding MPO's like SANDAG were set up/required to be set up to administer) TransNet funding which *generously* would raise $18.8 billion during the life of that program's 40-year extension (to 2048). Ikhrata has proposed a $177 billion plan. At it's best, SANDAG has leveraged $3 from state and federal sources for every $1 in TransNet funding. This implies $56.4 billion in state and federal funding to match the $18.8 billion raised by TransNet. That's $75.2 billion total through 2048. Over $100 billion short of the plan's estimated cost. Even if SANDAG could secure passage of a new funding mechanism (they'd need a 2/3rds majority - for certain not "we'll see"), they'd need to raise an additional $25 billion (if we anticipate an additional $3/$1 federal and state matching dollars).

You keep arguing that this is what we need - Ikhrata's plan - but have no idea or plan to GET THERE.

Pie in the sky dreaming is fun, but we are at the rubber meets the road phase and Ikhrata is still day dreaming.

There was no in-between time. On October 1st, 1997 Miramar was transferred directly from the Navy to the Marines. They even had a ceremony where the Navy commanding officer handed over control to the incoming Marine commander.

So what happened was, in the late 80s-early 90s it started becoming clear TOP GUN would be leaving San Diego. The Navy had outgrown Miramar years before, forcing them to transfer a good deal of training to NAS Fallon. It made sense to centralize. At this time the city made it clear that if the military didn't need it anymore, they would be very, very interested in acquiring it for their new airport. To the point of calling up our congressional representation and asking them to get Miramar closed.

The Navy resisted, saying that while the bulk of their training would be shifting to Fallon they still needed Miramar. The Navy does most of their large scale ocean exercises of the coast of San Diego, every other military airbase would be too small or to far away to allow aircraft to fly in support of this training.

The city and the Navy were still arguing about it when in 1993 congress announced El Toro would be closed and the Marines would be coming to Miramar. Made perfect sense from a military perspective, being surrounded by mountains El Toro was a nightmare to fly into and the Navy could still conduct their offshore training with the Marines there. Came as quite a shock to some people in the city though, who thought they were making progress towards convincing the Navy to leave. But realistically, it was probably never in the cards.

Hello everyone, it's been ages since I've been here.:tup:

Honestly didn't know this forum still existed. Why are we still in Boom Rundown 2?

How bout them Padres?:D

Thanks for this!

It looks like 2/3rds might not be the threshold anymore. TBD

Yep, retail is severly toast with very few exceptions: several in Gaslamp and Little Italy. Pretty much it. Downtown needs 40,000 more people in the downtown core for retail to pencil out.

This is not news, and the reduced majority threshold applies to "tax hike ballot measures qualified by public signature-gathering" NOT those placed on a ballot by a public agency such as SANDAG.

All prior SANDAG measures (check to confirm re most recent measure A, 2016) are drafted by SANDAG and placed on the ballot by SANDAG.

Query whether SANDAG can get around this by having a group of citizens draft the measure - and you run SMACK into the issue encountered by the City of San Diego in having the Mayor (Sanders) coordinate with a "citizens" committee to get Measure B on the ballot in 2012. The level of coordination b/w SANDAG and any citizens group would convert the tax measure into one "placed on the ballot by a public agency".

As said above, this is for "citizens initiatives" like (ref'd in the cited article) the convention center and homeless initiative. Please get back to me on which MPO's have had tax measures passed via citizens initiative in CA...

Concerning transit expansion do you guys feel like some of it may hinge on how the ridership does on this new extension to UTC? If its heavily used might it convince some in the county to be cool with kicking in more funds for other lines/projects? However, if the new line is a dud and economy languishes I don't see citizens going for further tax increases.

Construction update, lot at Ash St and Front/Union is cleared with a Swinerton Co fencing all around it. Which project is this?

Streetlights 15th/F still no earth moving equipment just a cleared lot anyone have any updates?

* Also Navy HQ at Manchester development will be done in a couple of weeks, what can we expect next? Demo of the old buildings and construction on the tall hotel portion and office building on the North side of the site? Is he still going forward with that North portion and the big Biotech guy is developing the South side --

Construction at Ash & Union is Alexan Little Italy

https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com...218-story.html

Deleted post.

Does anybody know what's going up on Ohio St and Monroe?

A block is cleared and steel bars are up

That was a super Old Skool apartment complex. In fact may have been one of the largest early to late 40's complexes in SD. I can't think of another that may have had more units of acreage. I doubt it was from the 30's was probably built to quickly house returning military personnel.

Anyhow they demoed it and its gunna be a dope modern project. Not sure how many units never saw any renders.

Speaking of large projects in that area I really hope the Park Blvd at beginning of EC Blvd project gets going soon. Lot is cleared for almost six months now with construction fencing and nada :shrug:

Is this it? Couldn't find much, but it seems to match:

https://www.suffolk.com/projects/4469-ohio-street

150 units, 5 stories

https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com...cused-proposal

Brookfield loses out on the Tailgate Park site.

The strip mall next to UTC is getting a makeover:

https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com...w-trolley-line