Talent May Be Shifting Away From Superstar Cities
Talent May Be Shifting Away From Superstar Cities
November 18, 2019 By Richard Florida Read More: https://www.citylab.com/life/2019/11...action/602200/ Quote:
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Before the debates begin, I just want to say that it’s ultimately great in my book that talent is shifting away from the superstar cities. Talent should be evenly distributed across this country, being as large and decentralized as it is.
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It's about time.
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The major centers of course can still be important, but it's beautiful when other cities are able to have sizable piece of the pie too. It would solve congestion problems and give people more options. |
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I’m sure we will see a diffusion of back ops talent or development talent who can just use Slack or Teams remotely. But don’t expect to see all that much diffusion with the front end, client-facing roles. This goes for Finance, definitely goes for Life Sciences and biochem, fin-tech, ad-tech, etc. |
I believe we're entering in a new age of centralization, after decades of suburbanization and growing of mid-sized cities. New York's renaissance, London booming, Berlin booming, Tokyo dodging population decline are the most obvious cases.
Massive metropolises which were seen in a very dystopian way in the 1970's and 1980's, even by its own inhabitants, boost now civic pride, better quality of living, good economic prospects and are once again perceived as places to be. There are some challenges as the high cost of living, the troubles faced by the middle-class in most countries, but I believe soon or later they will be tackled by governments. Also, population stagnation/decline everywhere will put less pressure on real estate prices. |
I would still argue that the USA is largely undeveloped.
100 years ago we were just barely leaving the "wild west" there were still saloons, cowboys and Indian Wars right up through WW1. Most people today dont realize how close that seemingly mythical era really is to us because in Europe things were already very modern and mechanized. The growth of the sunbelt and inter-mountain west is just the natural progression of money from developed areas chasing new opportunity. This Is why I still expect that flushing out this century we will see more of the inter Mountain west like Idaho, Montana, the Dakotas, Nevada, Colorado, Wyoming etc. There is still a ton of land that can and will be developed as technology and wealth from earlier developed areas can suddenly make harsh areas more livable and productive. What I think is interesting is what will happen with communication technology on where people choose to live. Just like we are seeing people actively choose to live in urban areas when they dont actually have too I think you will see people move to smaller quieter areas if that appeals to them. You dont really need to be anywhere specific in most cases anymore. Analysts and bankers dont need to be within shouting distance of each other in NYC like its 1880. I think we will really see some surprising developments as people become more able to live wherever they want. I still expect the cities to grow immensely however, but it doesn't take a lot of high wealth guys with an internet connection moving to Bozeman or Lincoln Nebraska to change how that town operates and the services/products that will be needed to support them. |
^ yeah its weird how both centralization and descentralization are pulling at each other. or just interesting i should say. florida is bringing us good news as you don't need massive groups of people working in industrial settings and big factories anymore, so this also makes sense. however, people in general are still flocking to cities and to the biggest cities, so talent easily and naturally continues to flock there too.
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nation primarily centered upon the midwest and northeast. |
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Good job! I see a bright career in your future. |
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The Urban Population as a Percentage of the Total Population by U.S. (1920, 2010) 1920: US: 51.2% Northeast: 75.5% Midwest: 52.3% South: 28.1% West: 51.8% 90 years later: 2010: US: 80.7% Northeast: 85.0% Midwest:75.9% South:75.8% West:89.8% No surprise here. The US has increasingly become more urban in every region. 2020 will probably show that the midwest is the least urbanized region. |
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here's one source i found for metro areas over 500,000 in 1920: NE - green MW - blue West - red Metropolitan Areas -- 1920 1.New York -- 8,490,694 *** 2.Chicago -- 3,521,789 ** 3.Philadelphia -- 2,714,271 ** 4.Boston -- 2,315,111 ** 5.Pittsburgh -- 1,759,989 * 6.Detroit -- 1,305,798 * 7.St. Louis -- 1,139,877 ** 8.San Francisco -- 1,009,467 9.Los Angeles -- 997,830 10.Cleveland -- 972,162 * 11.Baltimore -- 852,051 12.Buffalo -- 753,393 13.Minneapolis -- 704,566 14.Cincinnati -- 628,999 * 15.Washington -- 571,882 * 16.Milwaukee -- 539,449 17.Providence -- 536,572 18.Kansas City -- 528,833 source: https://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.phpt=913696 asterisks indicate the number of MLB teams a given metro area had at the time. 16 teams located in just 10 cities all in the northeast quadrant of the nation. the main reason that SF and LA didn't have MLB in those days is that travel time by train out to the west coast (~3 days) was simply too great for MLB's intensive schedule. the arrival of large scale passenger air travel in the 1950s finally made it practical for MLB to expand out west. |
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You cant stop that, it'll be what it will be. |
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If the topic is sprawl, of COURSE we can do something. Many cities (including several in the US) have significantly slowed sprawl. My city sprawled like hell until we made counties and cities plan and limit outward growth, and accept infill. It's difficult but can be done.
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Obviously that will result in local sprawl. But how each place deals with its growth is largely a local matter and dependent on how people view sprawl and suburbia in the future. |
between two big cities on the west coast (portland and sacremento) there are seven small cities. salem, eugene, bend, boise, medford, redding and reno. theres less chance of living in a big city.
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