more good polling numbers for rahm. this time a tribune poll conducted from march 25-29. MoE is 3.7%.

rahm: 58%
chuy: 30%
undec.: 9%

(i don't know why these percentages don't total 100%, they're just the figures the trib is reporting)

source: http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/l...ry.html#page=1


only one week to go until election day. chuy is going to need a massive, monumental shift in the campaign dynamic to have a chance.

^ Based on the widening margin, look for Chuy to turn into a pitbull in the next debate

^ well, the 3rd and final debate is tonight on WTTW, this will be chuy's last face to face opportunity to try and turn the tide of the campaign to his favor.

more good numbers for rahm. here's a Chicago Defender/WVON poll of chicago african-americans. 1,003 registered african american voters, conducted 3/25-3/26, MoE 3.2%.

rahm: 46%
chuy: 36%
undec.: 18%

source: http://chicago.suntimes.com/chicago-...nt-lead-garcia

Yea, based on the last Fox debate I saw Chuy looked aggressive and made Rahm look calm and cool by contrast, lol. I'm sure it was Chuy's strategy to dig into Rahm, but I think it just ended up making Rahm look more calm and he softened his personality alot.

Chuy got nowhere in last night's debate

I do think Rahm's pulled away somewhat.....

I'm going with:

Rahm 56.2%
Chuy 43.8%

Two new Ogden & Fry polls from this past weekend. not much has changed since last week.


4/3/15

rahm - 56.6%
chuy - 43.4%



4/4/15

rahm - 51.3%
chuy - 33.0%
undec. - 15.6%




tomorrow we vote!

In addition to my prediction on results, above, here's where I am as for total turnout:

593,524

^ You're way off, more like

593,579

Crains is calling the election for Emanuel.

Still too early to tell for some of the key aldermanic races. Hopkins has a lead in the 2nd but I really hope Pattison can pull it out. Michele Smith is winning in the 43rd, but barely.

The Tribune is reporting that Chuy has conceded defeat to Emanuel.

As of 9pm CST, Emanuel leads Chuy, 55.6% to 44.4% with 86.4% of precincts reporting.

Does Crains have a % for Rahm yet?



A link would be nice but I can look it up. I am just thinking about those that do not find the link easily



The last election Rahm got 75% of the loop. this poll says greater than 85% in this run off. Even Chicago republicans came out for Rahm.











http://www.chicagobusiness.com/artic...-term-as-mayor


April 07, 2015


Emanuel wins new term as mayor


The race for mayor is over.

With more than two-thirds of the vote in, Mayor Rahm Emanuel holds a commanding lead over challenger Jesus “Chuy” Garcia,




and there's no indication it's going to be close.




Detailed ward by ward totals were still coming in, but it appears that Emanuel won just about everywhere except heavily Hispanic wards.


For instance, Emanuel is winning the downtown 42nd Ward with a whopping 85 percent of the vote.

With 1,787 out of 2,069 precincts reporting, or more than 86 percent:







RAHM EMANUEL 275,718 55.58%
CHUY GARCIA 220,355 44.42%




Garcia, a Cook County Commissioner, has conceded the election, according to news media reports.
...

I hate the association some are making between Garcia and Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders. Not in the same league IMO. Does a disservice to Warren and Sanders.

^ With you 1,000%.......the news media can be very analytically challenged and lazy at times .......most of the time (and I don't consider Fox News to be news media, btw)

Not just Rahm that had a good night........take a look at good 'ole Sammy Boy.

Rahm finishing up with abound 0.5 pct pts less than my prediction, and I was only about maybe 23,000-25,000 or so heavy on turnout (I think my weather adjustments were a little off, and this also impacted my vote results slightly too).......I'll take it.....

Ogden & Fry also come out looking pretty good with their polling.



final O & G poll on 4/3/15:

rahm - 56.6%
chuy - 43.4%



actual election results with 99% of precincts reporting:

rahm - 55.7%
chuy - 44.3%



i'll be sure to put more stock in their polling in the future. they're polling was saying that this race wasn't nearly as close as some in the media desperately wanted, and their polling was more or less dead on.

Good job Chicago. Nice to see it was not even close.

So, I'd just like to state that I'm not sure if they're now 100% final, but as of today, the vote stands at:

Rahm: 56.19%
Chuy: 43.81%

Total Election Turnout: 588,557
Total Mayoral Race Votes Cast: 586,802


But who's counting?

Pretty good read..and depressing. Rahm is done. Don't really know where Chicago goes from here, politically. I think his exit is a lot sooner than many of us might expect.

The Sudden But Well-Deserved Fall of Rahm Emanuel
By Rick Perlstein

http://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-...f-rahm-emanuel

Here is the poll Perlstein references regarding how many Chicagoans think Rahm should resign:

http://www.scribd.com/doc/292630702/Emanuel-Poll