Chicago is losing its black middle class. Can it get it back?
 

Another interesting article from the Sun-times' "City at a Crossroads" series:

full article: https://chicago.suntimes.com/crossro...ity-crossroads

Households making less than $100k a year are not really "middle class" in Chicago, maybe working class or lower middle class, but for a household $100-200k is middle class. So really what this article is saying is that "Chicago is losing lower and lower middle class black households while gaining middle class black households at a slower rate"...

I've actually seen this in my properties, I have large numbers of Millenial, $100-200k households moving in. It's actually 25-33% of my tenant mix.

I heard a lot of black folks are moving down to Southern metros like Atlanta, Nashville, Charlotte, etc in order to be close with family and enjoy the wealth these cities are now generating on a larger scale. However, the historic black centers in the Midwest and Northeast should still be as prosperous as well.

But in the context of the black community of Chicago, the article states that black households only make about 43% of what white households make (an astonishing divide, btw, far larger than the national difference), so i think it's very safe to say that any black households in Chicago making $50 - 100K would fall squarely into chicago's "black middle class", and that's precisely the group that's currently experiencing the largest population drop, hence the headline.

This oldie but goodie seems appropriate...

Affluent local white man enjoys, causes the blues

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.the...1819565488/amp

Why is keeping black people in Chicago important?

Please don’t take this in any negative way, but why not ask the question?

Cities are great because they change. They are dynamic, and the needs of their communities evolve in a changing world, and people move on.

If people are voting with their feet, they are voting with their feet. Best encourage other groups to occupy the real estate that they left behind, instead of holding on to the past.

Yes, this seems like part of a larger trend; moderate to low income residents move out and higher income residents move in. The article states that higher income blacks are moving in but not at the pace that lower income blacks are leaving. Maybe in the future when the population lost stabilizes the number of higher income blacks might reach a critical mass similar. The problem though is the it's harder to get to that critical mass or grow it when black people don't feel comfortable putting down roots and staying here. In my anecdotal experience Chicago is usually a stopping point for professional blacks before they move to more welcoming cities. Maybe we need to shed low income residents in general but why are we ok with black professionals choosing DC or ATL or NYC over Chicago? The significance though, is that black culture and black people have been very important to the history and development of Chicago. Cities in general are great because they are diverse and inclusive. I agree with the sentiment expressed in the article that it often feels like there is no place for blacks in Chicago. In that, I mean, it often feels like the City doesn't view black neighborhoods as important or vital and other groups view blacks as undesirable at best. I think if a similar exodus was taking place in DC or ATL alarm bells would be ringing.

Here is a counter-narrative for you directly, is it important to keep white people in Chicago?

I think a city should try to appeal to people whom global and local economic forces are going to make it possible for them to appeal to.

Cities like Chicago no longer make sense for black families earning below $100k. Nothing any Mayor is going to do is likely to change that. But it still can be appealing to higher income folks of all ethnic groups, young singles/couples, and immigrants who work in certain trades and who don’t tend to live in neighborhoods being terrorized on a daily basis by gang activity.

It's a fair question.

Perhaps the concern isn't about retaining black residents per se, but rather, about what happens if the city cannot retain current residents (who happen to be black) and nobody is there to replace them.

Black people temporarily moved north for jobs during the Great Migration and are now moving back to where they are culturally native to in this country. It seems natural to me. Northern cities, for all their progressive bluster, have been miserable places for blacks. To top this off the long winters and cold weather is probably not ideal for those with sub-Saharan backgrounds. Why wouldn't they ditch Chicago and New York for Atlanta? White Americans have done this for decades moving to the Sun Belt--why not black Americans?

So long as the Winslows and Urkels stay there, I'm fine. Family matters.

Would a Chicago without black people be a world class city?

The racial component of this is a Chicago issue of course, but all cities with high income growth are having similar issues - is it a function of a long term underinvestment in transportation across the USA (Canada too), while at the same time limiting new housing where there is transportation access, making even closer proximity highly valuable to access the amenities of the city (jobs, culture).

I don’t understand why people keep arguing this angle, namely that lack of transportation access to jobs is why black people are leaving.

People are leaving, and it has nothing to do with concerns that there isn’t a train that can get them downtown. It’s time to expire this explanation.

I see a lot of black people with IL plates around here. A lot. So I guess we're a major destination of Chicago's black middle class.

Isn't the crux that people are being priced out? They are being priced out because others find it highly desireable to live near Chicago and transportation to where they want to go in Chicago. The effect is indirect - they aren't leaving because they can't get to downtown, they are being priced out because others can't get downtown from enough places fast enough.

I don't think they are being priced out, at least not in the traditional sense. They just aren't able to ascend any further and the social environment in the far south side keeps getting worse. Alot of Chicago homeowners are still underwater on their mortgages and much of the city has barely recovered. Of the county's 10 largest cities, Chicago has the highest rate of underwater mortgages, almost 14% of all homeowners in the city. By comparison, NYC is half that at about 6.5 percent. Illinois as a whole had the fifth highest foreclosure rate last quarter. There are tons of northside properties too that are barely priced higher than they were 15 years ago. A huge inventory mixed with high taxes, high hoas = bad news...i dont know much about the CHA situation but thats an interesting take on the situation.

Considering the middle class blacks are being replaced by low income blacks, I highly doubt they're being priced out. The South Side of Chicago is still mostly heading in the opposite direction from gentrification - it's declining. Middle class black neighbourhoods turn into low income black neighbourhoods, which become run down, and have homes go vacant and abandoned and lose population.

No, this is not it at all.

Gentrification is not pushing lower and middle income black people out of Chicago. The job market, taxes, and criminal gang activity are.

They don’t want to get shot by some POS gangster who just got out of jail because Kim Foxx doesn’t think that repeat gun offenses warrant being held without bond. I sure as hell would bail from Englewood if I were raising a family there too.

The story we are hearing about black Chicagoans blaming whites is really just about scoring political points for elected officials. The real story is about movement. People are quietly moving the hell out of here—that says more than words. They are fed up with the crime and the shootings, along with of course the taxes, etc and aren’t sticking around to complain about it. That is the real story.

Much of the loss of blacks in Chicago is media driven, people hear people are leaving, they hear better opportunities elsewhere, and they leave thinking if the press is saying it then it must be true. Its called a herd mentality. What happens then is they move to these so- called utopian cities, Atlanta, Houston, Charlotte, etc.. and many find the same problems, high -crime, traffic, racial env. etc.. that they faced in Chicago, without the many pluses of Chicago. True some have met success, but many blacks I know personally who are disappointed in their moves to other cities and some have returned. All things are cyclical, and more than not the grass may be greener on the other side but you still have to cut it. As a black who moved to Chicago and love it, you just have to be tough and resilient, you can make it as good here as anywhere.