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Saskatoon Civic Election 2012

With the Civic Election less than one week away, I think we need a place to discuss our predictions for the race, and the fallout come Wednesday evening.

Let's start with this....

Mayoral campaign too close to call between Atchison, Wolf: survey

The StarPhoenix October 18, 2012

http://www.thestarphoenix.com/news/s...?size=620x400s

Don Atchison (left) and Tom Wolf
Photograph by: Richard Marjan, The StarPhoenix

Quote:

The mayoral race in Saskatoon will be a sprint to the finish, according to a new survey that shows the incumbent and main challenger are engaged in a tight campaign with one week to go.

According to a survey by Insightrix Research released Thursday, 38 per cent of those decided are voting for the incumbent Don Atchison, while 32 per cent say they are voting for challenger Tom Wolf. One per cent say they will vote for the third contender, Clay Mazurkewich.

Two per cent said they plan on spoiling their ballot, while six per cent did not disclose their voting preference, according to Insightrix.

That leaves 21 per cent of voters surveyed undecided, “, which depending on their behaviour, could have a notable impact on the election outcome,” noted Insightrix.

Excluding those who are undecided or did not declare who they are voting for, 54 per cent plan to support Atchison while 44 per cent stand behind Wolf.

[....]

Read more: http://www.thestarphoenix.com/Live+c...#ixzz29fuw4iEw

^ I think it will be a tighter race than I initially expected. I will be suppporting Tom Wolf, but have long thought that he had a mountain to climb if he wanted to bring down Atch. But it's looking close. I think it will largely come down to voter turnout and the GOTV factor. Are Atch supporters more likely to be apathetic and stay home? Are Wolf supporters, desiring change, more motivated to cast their ballot?

Who are you voting for? What's your prediction for the outcome? (Mayor AND Councillors).

My predictions for Councillors in each of the 10 wards (with preferred winner in brackets):

Ward 1 - Darren Hill (same)
Ward 2 - Pat Lorje (same)
Ward 3 - Ann Iwanchuk (no preference)
Ward 4 - Sean Shaw (same)
Ward 5 - Randy Donauer (same)
Ward 6 - Charlie Clark (same)
Ward 7 - Mairin Loewen (same)
Ward 8 - Eric Olauson (Karen Rooney)... will be a close race, difficult to call
Ward 9 - Tiffany Paulsen (same)
Ward 10 - Bev Dubois (Zach Jeffries)... another close race

Anyone else want to volunteer their predictions?

I'm also surprised that that poll results are that close. When he first announced his candidacy, I thought that Tom Wolf was going to be a very strong contender, based mainly on being able to garner support from the younger portion of the population concerned primarily about environmental and social issues. During the campaign, his platform hasn't seemed to particularly highlight these items. Wolf instead has been focusing largely on infrastructure, same as Atch, but stating that Atch has done a poor job on infrastructure and that, if elected, he would do better. I honestly expected to see much more of a distinction between these two candidates.

As for Clay Mazurkewich, he seems to be half asleep most of the time when I see him in election coverage.

Mazurkewich has been a complete embarrassment to the city.

On a side note, he shares the same maiden name as my grandmother. Way to keep the family name going there pal.

Quote:

Originally Posted by jigglysquishy (Post 5872354)

Mazurkewich has been a complete embarrassment to the city.

On a side note, he shares the same maiden name as my grandmother. Way to keep the family name going there pal.

I don't think he comes close to Chad Novak in Regina. At least Clay is taking medication for his mental health issues.

It's close, but like another has said, I'd like to see Wolf as a councillor before a mayor.

Quote:

Originally Posted by djforsberg (Post 5872390)

I don't think he comes close to Chad Novak in Regina. At least Clay is taking medication for his mental health issues.

Now THAT is a trainwreck!

Our nutjob candidate has some comic value at least.

Polls Reporting 67/67
Candidate Votes
Don ATCHISON 34489
Tom WOLF 31085
Clay MAZURKEWICH 605

Last updated: 9:24 pm

Looks like Atch is re-elected.
I cannot believe 605 people voted for Mazurkewich.

I'd say that the polls were pretty accurate this time round. Voter turnout was significantly better than in the past. Still not great, but 66,000 voters is about 20,000 more than in 2009.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Crisis (Post 5871265)

Pretty much all of the candidates you would expect to support more urban developments and the types of things this forum preaches stuck to the traditional narratives: more money for crumbling roads, a new north bridge, and maybe money for a new school. Sean Shaw in particular moved away from his more progressive positions during the race to focus on issues that matter to most of his constituents. Sadly, it didn't pay off - Troy Davies took ward 4. That has to hurt Shaw considering he's practically been campaigning the past 3 years, attends council meetings to live tweet, and is possibly more engaged in civic politics than some of our elected councillors. Maybe the dude just isn't cut out for politics. Or maybe he's like Diefenbaker and he will fail and fail and fail until suddenly failing upwards and getting elected.

Fairly dismal results, though. Anything less than 50% turnout is embarassing. However, this may suggest there aren't as many single issue roads/art gallery voters as I thought there were. Or they're just too lazy to walk, er, drive to the polls.

Our city appears to be quite divided. It would be interesting to see how the mayoral vote is spread across each ward. I really thought (hoped) Wolf was going to take it by a slim margin.

Best of luck to those re-elected and the newly elected!

Alright Atch, I want to be able to drive across that commuter bridge by 2016!

It's interesting to see how the poll conducted on this thread wasn't terribly far off the actual result:

Poll
Don Atchison 50.00%
Tom Wolf 44.44%
Clay Mazurkewich 5.56%

Actual
Don Atchison 52.00%
Tom Wolf 47.00%
Clay Mazurkewich 1.00%

I'm not at all surprised with the split between older, established neighborhoods and more recently completed peripheral neighborhoods. That divide will likely expand especially with suburban growth taking centre stage over the next decade.

Quote:

Civic election vote reveals urban, suburban divide in Saskatoon
Polls split along Circle Drive
BY DAVID HUTTON, THE STARPHOENIX OCTOBER 26, 2012 10:04 AM

It's a tale of two cities - within one.

Poll-by-poll results from Wednesday's civic election, which saw nine-year mayor Don Atchison take a slim 3,400-vote victory over challenger Tom Wolf, shows the city split along geographic lines.

The older neighbourhoods were defeated by the newer suburbs, propelling Atchison to victory.

Atchison won the majority of the vote at 31 neighbourhood polls - and six of seven advance polls - versus 29 neighbourhood wins for Wolf.

Wolf 's support was solidified inside of Circle Drive in older neighbourhoods, where he scored more than 60 per cent of the vote in areas such as City Park, Nutana and Varsity View and claimed decisive victories in the downtown, Riversdale, Pleasant Hill, Westmount and King George. He swept Ward 6 surrounding the Broadway area and in Ward 1, which stretches from Hudson Bay Park in the west across the river. He only lost the Forest Grove poll in Ward 1 by 40 votes.

[...]

Interactive map displaying the election results here.

Are councillors in Saskatoon full time or part time positions?

Quote:

Originally Posted by PoscStudent (Post 6037325)

Are councillors in Saskatoon full time or part time positions?

They are meant to be part time to discourage career politicians.