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-   -   SAN DIEGO | Boom Rundown, Vol. 2 (https://skyscraperpage.com/forum//showthread.php?t=126473)

SDfan Feb 25, 2013 7:50 PM

Good news!

Quote:

http://www.utsandiego.com/news/2013/...tion-caltrans/

Work to start on new I-805 'express lanes'
SORRENTO VALLEY — Construction is expected to start this week on two new “express lanes” along a congested 4-mile stretch of Interstate 805 between Sorrento Valley and University City, according to the California Department of Transportation.

The $86 million project would add one express lane -- open to carpools, motorcycles, buses and fee-paying solo drivers -- along each direction of I-805 from State Route 52 to Mira Mesa Boulevard, Caltrans said.

spoonman Feb 26, 2013 2:34 AM

@Travis

So you think people would rather have this
http://t3.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:A...sLGPV0XQyuJ6IA

As opposed to this...
http://images3.flipkey.com/img/photo...1355470386.jpg

BS. That is a combination of builders doing the minimum, and NIMBY zoning. Not the "market demand" that apparently only you understand.

spoonman Feb 26, 2013 4:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SDfan (Post 6028437)
Good news!

This is great.

travis bickle Feb 26, 2013 4:29 AM

Moving suburbia toward a more urban fabric...
 
Hmmm… not sure why my post was deleted last time, but I’ll try it again. Seems this forum is still a land of thin skins…

Here are two links that some of you may find helpful. They both deal with moving suburbia toward a more urban model.

Urban in this context primarily increasing densities. These articles help show how this might be done. The key is convincing the planning/development and neighborhood stakeholder communities what the benefits of increased densities are, how those benefits are good for them and that they have nothing to fear by increasing densities.

This will be one of the great development challenges of the next decade.

The Fading Differentiation between City and Suburb

http://urbanland.uli.org/Articles/20...FloridaSuburbs

How to Make Suburbs Work Like Cities

http://urbanland.uli.org/Articles/20...FloridaSuburbs

Btw spoonman – that last photo you posted is of a project with which I am very familiar as it is very close to my home and I am acquainted with the rehab designer. The latest listing there shows a 1bd/1ba for about $450k. HOA fees come in at just over $500/mo. It’s a lovely building in a lovely neighborhood.

Anyone who can afford it can live there. Those who can’t find another place: usually cheaper. Some may have to choose that wretched complex you show in your top photo. And when they can afford to leave, they probably will. People making their own choices trying to get the most value for their money based on their own individual wants and needs. And that’s how “market demand” works. Now you know!:cheers:

Your friend,

P.A.

Edit - Spoonman, why did you remove the photo of 3200 6th Ave?

spoonman Feb 26, 2013 4:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by travis bickle (Post 6029242)
Some may have to choose that wretched complex you show in your top photo. And when they can afford to leave, they probably will.

Why would anyone leave that place? As you keep saying, people prefer those dwellings.

Dickle - Maybe you should think next time before jumping down everyone's throats. I was attempting to start a dialogue about why we build the way we do before you began working yourself into a lather about things people MIGHT have or have not inferred. :tup:

aerogt3 Feb 26, 2013 8:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by spoonman (Post 6029075)
@Travis

So you think people would rather have this
http://t3.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:A...sLGPV0XQyuJ6IA

As opposed to this...
http://images3.flipkey.com/img/photo...1355470386.jpg

BS. That is a combination of builders doing the minimum, and NIMBY zoning. Not the "market demand" that apparently only you understand.

If they are paying for the home themselves, they are overwhelmingly going to choose the first image. Have a look at median household income for SD city and then you will see why most do not want to pay $800/sqft.

spoonman Feb 26, 2013 3:09 PM

^ OK. So the bottom building is priced higher. Should it be? Sure, it is much higher quality, but has many more units on much less land. One might argue that if these projects weren't as scarce, they might be of comparable cost to the building on top. I may have used an example that is of too high of quality for the high rise, but I believe that if this type of construction was more abundant outside of downtown, there would be more buyers, and lower price points. Problem is it is not offered as an alternative.

travis bickle Feb 26, 2013 7:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by spoonman (Post 6029608)
^ OK. So the bottom building is priced higher. Should it be? Sure, it is much higher quality, but has many more units on much less land. One might argue that if these projects weren't as scarce, they might be of comparable cost to the building on top. I may have used an example that is of too high of quality for the high rise, but I believe that if this type of construction was more abundant outside of downtown, there would be more buyers, and lower price points. Problem is it is not offered as an alternative.

Spoonman - What you "believe" means nothing. If the higher quality building has no buyers, the price will come down until people are willing to buy/rent. If the price drops to much, the developer loses his shirt.

Residential high rises (and even mid-rises of 6 stories+) work best if there is a surrounding neighborhood of services, preferably within walking distance. Without that kind of neighborhood support structure, it doesn't matter how an area is zoned. No one will risk their money building a highrise where it can't be economically feasible. Zoning is a factor, but it is negligible. The market is the overwhelmingly decisive factor.

Right now, your zoning argument works best in Hillcrest, where the newly approved 65' height limit is probably artificially low, and along the coast, where the 30' height limit is undeniably low. But both of those are high-value locations where anything built would be out of most people's price range anyway. Those are distinct exceptions.

Development, like politics, is the art of the possible. You keep whining about something that for the foreseeable future, is simply impossible.

You must just want to stir the pot here. No one is this stupid...

spoonman Feb 26, 2013 10:41 PM

My contention has never been that there would be high rises everywhere if zoning wasn't a restriction. Nor am I suggesting that buildings should be built which do not pencil out. I'm raising the question of whether buildings could build up versus out (for the comparable price), as this may potentially be a more attractive alternative from a resident and city standpoint.

If you think that high rise construction on smaller lots is more expensive that 3 story construction on X times more land, then you just offered your opinion to the question I posed. It's very possible current land prices are likely not high enough to tip the scales in most locations. All that said, it would be nice to see many home builders try a different approach, where feasible. Maybe they have, I wouldn't know. From an outsiders perspective, it looks like they are building the same stuff they have for decades because they can get away with it due to the perpetual lack of inventory.

SDfan Feb 26, 2013 11:23 PM

I really like this discussion between travis and spoonman, but travis you really don't know how to tone down the jack ass-ery, do you?

While we aren't always so polite, I would appreciate it if you would make your points (good points, I might add) without putting others down without warrant.

aerogt3 Feb 27, 2013 12:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by spoonman (Post 6029608)
but I believe that if this type of construction was more abundant outside of downtown, there would be more buyers, and lower price points. Problem is it is not offered as an alternative.

This makes no sense at all. You are saying that an undesirable product which is out of peoples' price range will become more desirable if more of them are built? This completely flies in the face of pretty much all economic principles.

That's like telling GM: even though the Pontiac Aztec had zero public interest, horrible sales figures, and was wildly unpopular, the solution is to just build more of them. Because eventually, once there are enough Aztecs out there, people will buy them. The reality is that no one would buy them and would instead go buy Fords or Toyotas. Which is exactly what happened.

YOU want dense construction in that area. The people who actually live there don't, and as a result, no one can make money building the type of buildings that you want. You can "believe" what you want, but everyone with the data, information, and money believes something completely different. If a developer built the type of building you're advocating, they would have no demand, and would have to drop the price to the point that they went out of business.

You can zone all of SD in it's entirety for towers of unlimited height, and you will still see them being build in the same places they are now.

SDfan Feb 27, 2013 1:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by aerogt3 (Post 6031072)
This makes no sense at all. You are saying that an undesirable product which is out of peoples' price range will become more desirable if more of them are built? This completely flies in the face of pretty much all economic principles.

That's like telling GM: even though the Pontiac Aztec had zero public interest, horrible sales figures, and was wildly unpopular, the solution is to just build more of them. Because eventually, once there are enough Aztecs out there, people will buy them. The reality is that no one would buy them and would instead go buy Fords or Toyotas. Which is exactly what happened.

YOU want dense construction in that area. The people who actually live there don't, and as a result, no one can make money building the type of buildings that you want. You can "believe" what you want, but everyone with the data, information, and money believes something completely different. If a developer built the type of building you're advocating, they would have no demand, and would have to drop the price to the point that they went out of business.

You can zone all of SD in it's entirety for towers of unlimited height, and you will still see them being build in the same places they are now.

I don't agree with this completely.

I don't think urban living is undesirable, if you look at many of the projects built over the last few years both downtown and in other areas - dense, smart growth projects have become more desirable.

Unfortunately for you aero, San Diego is going to have to somehow fit in another million people within the next 40 years, and in case you haven't noticed, we have no where to grow outwards. Tract home development is basically done in SD county.

So, for those people who live in neighborhoods who are against dense development, all I have to say is, what then? Do we stop building homes so that you can maintain your "quality of life" while our children, businesses, and growth are forced out of the region? I always think its a fanciful and selfish idea for a California craftsman home owner in Hillcrest or Bankers Hill or South Park to think that their communities should remain stagnant when what we need is smart infill development in places where they could be most successful.

It is not just spoonman who wants density increased. Its our future residents, our economic security, and our regions affordability that demands it.

Saying otherwise is simply putting ones head in the sand.

I don't think San Diego will see the day where 10-20 story towers will dot the urban landscape. San Diego is slow to change - I think travis' ideas are more likely to come to fruition. But I do know that the NIMBY's in the urban rings are going to have to compromise more when it comes to urban infill, otherwise we're going to end up with an even less affordable, less sustainable, and less economically attractive community in the decades to come.

spoonman Feb 27, 2013 3:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by aerogt3 (Post 6031072)
This makes no sense at all. You are saying that an undesirable product which is out of peoples' price range will become more desirable if more of them are built? This completely flies in the face of pretty much all economic principles.

That's like telling GM: even though the Pontiac Aztec had zero public interest, horrible sales figures, and was wildly unpopular, the solution is to just build more of them. Because eventually, once there are enough Aztecs out there, people will buy them. The reality is that no one would buy them and would instead go buy Fords or Toyotas. Which is exactly what happened.

YOU want dense construction in that area. The people who actually live there don't, and as a result, no one can make money building the type of buildings that you want. You can "believe" what you want, but everyone with the data, information, and money believes something completely different. If a developer built the type of building you're advocating, they would have no demand, and would have to drop the price to the point that they went out of business.

You can zone all of SD in it's entirety for towers of unlimited height, and you will still see them being build in the same places they are now.

I never claimed we'd have towers everywhere if only XYZ. Get a grip. I'm saying hey guys, why do you think we build the way we do? As there MAY (this is the fucking hypothesis) be other ways to build economically viable buildings without repeating the past again and again. And again, if you think all people want to live in are stucco boxes, then great, you just lent your opinion. And I'm not saying you're necessarily wrong. And yes, it's not about what 1 or 2 people want, but what is "popular"

PS: High-rise living has become very popular...look how many have been built and sold downtown in the last 10 years. Mid-rise buildings MIGHT be even more popular in UTC, Kearny Mesa, etc, (with people that want to live in them, not with the NIMBY's) as it MIGHT be a less radical move for people used to single family homes in the burbs than moving downtown with the homeless and other things they may not be used to. They would enjoy better views, shorter commutes, better amenities, etc. But we don't know because nobody has tried building one. Have they researched it? Don't know. Seemed to work along the beach before the Coastal Commission was formed, but to their credit, those locations had awesome views and beach access.

I'm about done with this discussion, because it has been anything but. I consider most of the regulars on here as friends, and bashing each other isn't why I'm here. This is not an professional industry forum, this is a hobby for most here, and it is the appropriate place to raise questions, and not get angry and jump to conclusions. Again, I posed the question of why we build what we build in this city, and offered my opinion that the form factor of these buildings could be different to improve the experience for the occupants, and city alike, and at a similar price point, and that nobody has tried to do this outside downtown. My opinion is that developers have been happy woth the status quo because it pencils out. No need to get angry. That is my opinion.

SDfan Feb 27, 2013 7:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by spoonman (Post 6031211)

I'm about done with this discussion, because it has been anything but. I consider most of the regulars on here as friends, and bashing each other isn't why I'm here. This is not an professional industry forum, this is a hobby for most here, and it is the appropriate place to raise questions, and not get angry and jump to conclusions.

Agreed. :order:

Chapelo Feb 27, 2013 8:14 PM

They've fenced off the site for the new Irvine Company tower in UTC, across the street from La Jolla Commons (at Executive and Judicial). Brush clearing is underway, looks like we could see construction real soon.

spoonman Feb 28, 2013 3:16 AM

Blue Sky is moving forward. The East tower will be complete in 2015, followed by the West tower in 2017.

http://www.utsandiego.com/news/2013/...wn-apartments/

http://media.utsandiego.com/img/phot...9efbd88a38372c

http://media.utsandiego.com/img/phot...9efbd88a38372c

http://media.utsandiego.com/img/phot...9efbd88a38372c

spoonman Feb 28, 2013 7:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chapelo (Post 6031589)
They've fenced off the site for the new Irvine Company tower in UTC, across the street from La Jolla Commons (at Executive and Judicial). Brush clearing is underway, looks like we could see construction real soon.

You can follow the progress here
http://www.earthcam.com/client/hines/

spoonman Mar 1, 2013 2:58 AM

9th and Broadway has broken ground...it will be 17 floors

http://bridgehousing.com/news-media/...groundbreaking

http://www.bridgehousing.com/sites/d...h-broadway.jpg

aerogt3 Mar 1, 2013 12:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SDfan (Post 6031105)
I don't agree with this completely.

I don't think urban living is undesirable, if you look at many of the projects built over the last few years both downtown and in other areas - dense, smart growth projects have become more desirable.

Urban living is highly desirable to me. But it's not highly desirable to Americans or San Diegans. You can point to projects that have been built, but as a percentage of the population it's very small.

Quote:

Unfortunately for you aero......
It's not unfortunate for me. You are preaching to the choir on this one. It's unfortunate for the people who like the cheap, stucco clad tuscan ranch crap that gets built inside the city center. They are the majority. Americans, particularly those with families, like single family homes and dislike dense urban living. THAT is the reason this stuff is built, not because developers have some kind of bias towards it.

My point is not anti-urbanization, I'm simply pointing out to spoonman that this stuff is built because it's what people want, not because developers have some kind of agenda.

aerogt3 Mar 1, 2013 12:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by spoonman (Post 6031211)
PS: High-rise living has become very popular...look how many have been built and sold downtown in the last 10 years.

A lot of downtown condos are second homes, etc. That said, the percentage of San Diegans living in dense high rises is..... extremely small. They are hardly "popular." They are very popular with downtown residents, and very popular to me, and very popular on this forum. But they are not popular with San Diegans in general.

Quote:

Mid-rise buildings MIGHT be even more popular in UTC, Kearny Mesa, etc, (with people that want to live in them, not with the NIMBY's) as it MIGHT be a less radical move for people used to single family homes in the burbs than moving downtown with the homeless and other things they may not be used to. They would enjoy better views, shorter commutes, better amenities, etc. But we don't know because nobody has tried building one. Have they researched it? Don't know.
This is where you go wrong. Developers drop hundreds of millions of dollars into housing projects. They have boards, investors, and lenders to convince. They do not blindly go "let's churn out some highrises/midrises/single family homes and see how it goes." Developers cater to demand and they know what buyers and build what buyers want. Lack of DEMAND is responsible for not having midrises in UTC, not developers.


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