France & Germany fertility rates compared
Behind new construction projects, there's the growth of cities, and behind the growth of cities, there's the general growth of a country's population.
On Wikipedia I found a fascinating map of the German fertility rates in 2003 per Kreis (local districts). So I made a map of French fertility rates per département for the same year to compare with the German map. The contrast between the two most populated countries of the European Union is quite sharp. Fertility rates 2003 Color codes: - red: total fertility rate (TFR) under 1.3 - pink: TFR between 1.31 and 1.40 - orange: TFR between 1.41 and 1.50 - yellow: TFR between 1.51 and 1.70 - light green: TFR between 1.71 and 1.90 - dark green: TFR between 1.91 and 2.10 - very dark green: TFR above 2.10. REPLACEMENT OF GENERATIONS ASSURED. http://img46.imageshack.us/img46/440...all2003uz8.png Fertility rates 2004 Here is the French map for 2004, showing an increase of fertility nationwide. I don't have a map for Germany in 2004 unfortunately. In 2005 and 2006 the French fertility rate has increased even more, now reaching an average of 1.98 nationwide (in 2006), but I don't have data per département, so 2004 is the last year I can draw a map. http://img227.imageshack.us/img227/7...fce2004pr8.png |
France is gonna be a bigger nation than Germany if that doesn't change fast.
I have more hope for development in France. |
The german goverment has this year approved some laws to icrease fertility rates and now there´s general conscious in Germany about this issue but even if successful, germany will have to wait several years for these measures to take real effect. Anyway, total fertility rates don´t take into account migratory movements which could compensate in germany for the lower fertility. I can hardly imagine france to have more population than germany in the long furuture
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I have added the Netherlands and Luxembourg to the map. It's impossible to find the fertility rates of Belgium unfortunately, but from what I understand they are in between the high fertility rates of France and the low fertility rates of Germany.
Fertility rates 2003 http://img231.imageshack.us/img231/7...eth2003ep5.png |
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This is a table comparing the net migration to France and Germany in recent years (figures come from the French and German statistical offices). Net migration is the difference between people moving into the country and people moving out of the country. Note that net migration to France is generaly considered low (compared to Spain or the UK), so that says something about the very low net migration of Germany. Code:
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In comparison, according to the French statistical office, in 2050 metropolitan France will have 69,961,000 inhabitants, assuming there's a net migration of +100,000 every year until 2050. Including the overseas departments and territories, then the population of the entire France in 2050 would be about 73.5 million. If the net migration is only +50,000 every year, then the population of metropolitan France in 2050 will be only 66,973,000 and the population of the entire France about 70.5 million. To sum up these (official) population projections: Code:
Population in 2050 Germany Metropolitan France Entire France |
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I don't think that the reason for a low fertility rate is the bad economic situation. There are much deeper reasons for the low fertility of Germany. This low fertility rate has existed for a long time already. Back in the 1970s and 1980s when West Germany was booming, the fertility rate of Germany was already pretty low. Even during the baby boom in the 1960s the fertility rate of Germany was of course higher than now, but still lower than France's or the UK's fertility rate. It's like something has been broken in the German psyche since the Third Reich and the Nazi pro-natalist policies, I don't know. Here is the German and French fertility rates since 1960 for comparisons. http://img408.imageshack.us/img408/2...rtiliteip5.png Quote:
That's possible, but then it's surprising that in 2006, which was the best economic year for Germany since the reunification, net migration was at its lowest with only +25,000. In any case Germany would need to have a crazily high net migration rate just to keep its population at the current level. Like I said, with a net migration of +100,000 per year, Germany will have 68,743,000 inhabitants in 2050. With a net migration of +200,000 per year (which is more than the UK and surpassed only by Spain), Germany would have 73,958,000 inhabitants in 2050 according to the German statistical office. With a net migration of +300,000 per year (which is almost as high as the record net migration to Spain in recent years), Germany would have 78,724,000 inhabitants in 2050. In other words, in order just to keep its current level of population, Germany would need to have a net migration of almost +400,000 every year until 2050. I don't think German people are ready for that. Immigration at that level for more than 40 years would greatly change the composition of Germany's population. It's doubtful German citizens are ready for the millions of immigrants that this scenario would mean, supposing it's feasible to attract so many immigrants in the first place. |
What's it with the stupid obsession about fertility rates. The earth is overpopulated anyway. If we are able to reduce the human population a bit in the future, everyone will benefit.
The problem is not the population loss, but our outdated social and pension systems where the current working population pays for the current retirees. If we would switch the systems to one where everyone is forced to save up a considerable amount of money for their own pension, the problem would be solved. It's also no big surprise that France's population will be larger than Germany's in the future, considering it is almost twice the size in land area than Germany. |
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(dense Flemish countryside) http://farm1.static.flickr.com/39/77...f8c807e7_b.jpg ...and there are other areas of the Earth which can still accomodate a lot of people. (empty central France) http://farm2.static.flickr.com/1318/...88201368_b.jpg |
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The earth being overpopulated?
I believe less than one percent of the entire above-water surface of the world is inhabited by humans. The other 99% is the uninhabited vastness of planet earth. Furthermore, if our food production methods were not as wasteful as they are we could feed our entire population with the current production and have significant reserves for significantly more people. But alas wealthy countries discard about as much as they consume and food production policies in ravaged countries do little to promote mass and affordable food production. |
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The problem of starvation isn't due to overpopulation, it's due to a failing food distribution system. That doesn't mean that capitalism is necessarily the cause of the evil, actually communism has proven itself to suck even more when it goes about food distribution. But anyway, what should be also understood is that most countries in the world faces a slowing down of their population growth. The world as a whole is already getting in the final stage of the demographic transition. The population should stabilize around 9 billion people in 2050. |
I'm happy about this. Germany's way too crowded anyway. A nation of our size (geographically) should only be home to about 50 million people. The less, the merrier.
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Gaah, I hate that kind of population forecasts ("the population of x in 2050...."). Useless.
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Like you say, it's all relative, e.g. the official Stockholm metro is less dense than the Netherlands as a whole. Also, population forcasts 40 years into the future is way too much guesswork to be credible. Useing these kind of projections into the future to point out a a current sitation has it's uses but nobody actually thinks this is how things will turn out... |
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Now this being said, it's true that there's something very real today, and it is that there are more French new-born babies than German new-born babies. In 2006, about 820,000 French babies are born and about 675,000 German babies are born. As a result, the trend leads currently to a reducing gap of population between both countries. Now we don't know if that trends will continue, we don't know how immigration will go on. Well, many things can change from now to 2057. |
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