EVERYBODY CALM THE FREAK DOWN.
I swear there is like a one week lull and everyone puts thier panties on their heads and runs outside in the snow screaming. |
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No doubt, it they had a construction loan, they'd announce that. Also, all indications are that they thought they'd have the loan by now. But for all we know, he may have a commitment already and may just be negotiating to increase it. On a couple of the other points -- I agree that a smaller building doesn't work. It decreases the potential income and decreases the attractiveness of it as a property. On the notion of "enough multimillionaires in Chicago" I would mention that the smaller units don't require a million in assets -- just a healthy income & good credit. Possible there might be more than a few of those. In fact, they might increase the number of cheaper units in order to boost sales. On the Olympic note -- I couldn't agree more. If this project is not going vertical by the time that announcement is made next year (and presuming we're not in a new real estate boom then) -- it's dead. |
Dalton and others continue to post completely stupid and uneducated comments on this thread. It is flat out a lie to say that the site is "inactive". Again, LOOK AT THE FREAKING PICTURES!!! THERE ARE TWO HUGE HOLES WHERE THE CASSIONS ARE, THERE ARE CAP WALLS BEING BUILT ON THE SECANT WALLS, THERE IS A NEW PILE OF SHEET PILES, HOW IS THAT INACTIVE?
Also, anyone who thinks that the 30% sales figure is weak or disappointing to Kellher clearly has NO knowlege of real estate or you would realize how stunning that figure is. Also, READ VICTORS POST, he has learned that sales are now "well north of 30%"... In other the words, THE UNITS ARE SELLING and continuing to sell. When you say "the units aren't selling" it is no longer speculation, but just flat out deception and lying. I am astounded that this stupidity continues despite the fact that EVERY SINGLE SOLID FACT we have suggests the exact opposite of what is being said... Seriously people, this conversation is getting just ludicrous with the straight bull shit being slung around... |
^ I agree. There is no concrete evidence of a real slowdown - we have no idea what is going on or about to happen. Obviously some people have never worked on a construction site if they expect everything to move along like clockwork at all times.
The idea that there isn't enough money here to support the building is BS too. I have a very good feeling Mr. Kelleher did a bit more research than that. Someone feel like pulling the studies of millionaires in Cook County? Anyone who has studied the demographics of the Chicago area at length will know the scope and depth of the economy here and the very positive levels of wealth in the area. I highly doubt the Olympics will have much to do with this tower. Local real estate trends, international perception, exchange rates, growth of the local economy have a much better meaning. Who the hell invests in residential real estate because of a sporting event that lasts a few weeks? See any 2000' luxury towers in Atlanta? I love the Spire, but I don't think it's so good that it will sell just because someone does the long jump with it rising in the background. It's rather absurd to correlate the two. |
Does anyone know how old that 30% figure is, or can anyone verify that it is still up-to-date?
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As Kelleher's video documenting Chicago aptly portrays, new visitors are frequently "surprised" at the city's beauty and sophistication. Anyone ever "surprised" at how beautiful Paris is? Or "surprised" at how sophisticated London or New York are? The Olympics is just one more feather in Chicago's cap that would give it the reputation as a city of the future. Kelleher is clearly banking on the weak dollar to sell the Spire internationally, so it's vitally important that the city is in the news in a positive way and perceived as on the rise. |
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I'm not even suggesting there is a slowdown or anything is off schedule. Units are selling and that is excellent, but this tower will need an enormous financing deal, that I just dont see available right now. It will take some time. |
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Chicago has received tons of foreign investment on its commercial & residential real estate for many, many years--I know that by simply reading the local news every day. Over 120 highrises (and growing) have been built in Chicago in the past 8 years, representing billions & billions of dollars of real estate, albeit during a national real estate boom. We're talking about a city that has tons of infrastructure and well over a thousand huge, expensive highrises that have been built in 120 years. Developers have built luxury residential towers in Chicago successfully for decades, through some of the worst economic recessions & through the era of white flight which plundered other American cities. It is clearly evident by this that Chicago is a city, more than nearly any other in this country (besides NY, LA, perhaps SF) that does not need to hitch its wagon to the star of a major 2-week event to justify such an investment. Generations of investment and the grandness of the city around you alone proves otherwise. |
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In other words, as Kelleher's research no doubt revealed, the elements are in place for a downtown Chicago trophy tower if the (world-wide) credit markets and (local) real-estate markets remain reasonably intact. Your comments mostly add to the discussion of whether those hopes are bankable, but a few of them are hyperbolic -- and, in this setting, incendiary. That said, I'm grateful for 70% of what you've said recently -- it keeps my exuberance in check. |
Dalton,
You seem to be acting on the basis that the Spire would be affected by local/national economic fluctuations (e.g. housing/credit). Unfortunately, it seems you have disregarded the ability for international money to flow in when the dollar is weak and when their currencies are worth more than the dollar. The Spire is a totally different level of project than almost every other building in Chicago. It's not immune to the housing/credit market in the country, but it won't be affected by it. You seem so sure of yourself regarding your speculation/conclusions. Do you have experience with a construction project of this magnitude? |
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aaron38 has already posted what's been at the tip of my tongue as I caught up on the last couple pages of this thread, especially when reading comments like:
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I'm not trying to rip anyone apart here. I'm just saying some key parts of that argument don't make a lot of sense right now. :shrug: |
^^ thanks, I do disagree with Dalton there. I think there is a market for these units, specifically for international buyers, given the value of the dollar.
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