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-   -   Other Manitoba and Saskatchewan Developments (https://skyscraperpage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=150057)

Stormer Dec 15, 2014 4:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SaskCarpenter (Post 6843224)
Does anyone have any new information on the BHP Jansen project? Or any of the new mine sites in this area?


This is probably the most recent update. The Uralkali mine in Russia is almost certainly lost. I have heard the Canadian producers have sent "spies" over there to get the real story.

http://www.mining.com/flooded-mine-b...oomberg-63949/

bomberjet Dec 15, 2014 6:16 PM

Jansen still going ahead on the design/concept/site construction side. Will they actually mine stuff, I don't know. Work is still going ahead though.

Riverman Dec 29, 2014 6:09 PM

A good article on why Manitoba's "positive economic outlook" exists.

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/opi...ce=d-more-news

Stormer Dec 29, 2014 6:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Riverman (Post 6858528)
A good article on why Manitoba's "positive economic outlook" exists.

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/opi...ce=d-more-news

Wow that is really too bad. Such growth is totally unsustainable, for obvious reasons.

Arts Dec 29, 2014 9:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stormer (Post 6858571)
Wow that is really too bad. Such growth is totally unsustainable, for obvious reasons.

Please elaborate on the obvious... just because a larger segment of the provincial service economy is provided by publicly managed agencies doesn't mean that productivity is harmed. Why is the hiring of more healthcare workers and teachers a problem?

Simplicity Dec 29, 2014 10:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Arts (Post 6858686)
Please elaborate on the obvious... just because a larger segment of the provincial service economy is provided by publicly managed agencies doesn't mean that productivity is harmed. Why is the hiring of more healthcare workers and teachers a problem?

First of all, what does productivity have to do with anything? Manitoba is a very productive province as a percentage of GDP, but we're still 9th of 13 provinces/territories in terms of per capita GDP. Productivity is an irrelevant statistic.

Secondly, are you seriously asking what the problem might be with a shrinking private sector and growing public one? For starters, healthcare workers and teachers don't 'produce' anything; they're paid out of taxation receipts. When those receipts decrease and that pay doesn't, you end up with a deficit or a tax increase, both of which are harmful to the private sector - the engine that fuels government.

More insidious yet, given that a large proportion of our provincial budget is subsidized through equalization as generated by the wealthier resource-driven provinces, as the price of oil decreases and those economies feel the ancillary effects (lower housing prices, higher unemployment, etc...), there's less coming into the provincial budget given the wealthier provinces are producing less. And both healthcare and teachers are provincially administered and funded, but are largely topped up by federal health and social transfers, again, funded by things like resource royalties.

So yeah, it matters.

Stormer Dec 29, 2014 10:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Arts (Post 6858686)
Please elaborate on the obvious... just because a larger segment of the provincial service economy is provided by publicly managed agencies doesn't mean that productivity is harmed. Why is the hiring of more healthcare workers and teachers a problem?

I would say :iagree: to what Simplicity says but to further simplify his comments, the Manitoba model is not sustainable. Growth must also come from the non-government dependent sector and that growth must be at least as strong as the government sector's over the long term.

Bdog Dec 30, 2014 5:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Riverman (Post 6858528)
A good article on why Manitoba's "positive economic outlook" exists.

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/opi...ce=d-more-news

Good article - one which can hopefully spur some meaningful discussion about this issue over the next year (as we gear up for an election in 16 months or so).

As a side note, it would be interesting to see the numbers (% public sector) for all of the provinces.

rrskylar Dec 30, 2014 5:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Arts (Post 6858686)
Please elaborate on the obvious... just because a larger segment of the provincial service economy is provided by publicly managed agencies doesn't mean that productivity is harmed. Why is the hiring of more healthcare workers and teachers a problem?

Are you frickin serious?:koko: And precisely why most whom I know are planning to leave the province after retirement including myself. How in the hell do you sustain having 26.3 per cent of the workforce in the public sector, before some of you answer with ''well Cuba does it"......f me!

1ajs Dec 30, 2014 6:18 AM

does this include healthcare?
mlcc?
mpi
hydro?

rrskylar Dec 30, 2014 6:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1ajs (Post 6859088)
does this include healthcare?
mlcc?
mpi
hydro?

Yes it does.

1ajs Dec 30, 2014 6:45 AM

mpi mlcc should not count nore should hydro

Riverman Dec 30, 2014 2:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1ajs (Post 6859107)
mpi mlcc should not count nore should hydro

Sure, great idea. Don't be concerned with the problem, just change the way you count. That should fix everything.

Arts Dec 30, 2014 3:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rrskylar (Post 6859062)
Are you frickin serious?:koko: And precisely why most whom I know are planning to leave the province after retirement including myself. How in the hell do you sustain having 26.3 per cent of the workforce in the public sector, before some of you answer with ''well Cuba does it"......f me!

You don't have to do anything to sustain it (that is the whole definition of sustainable: it either continues to function as is or it doesn't). It doesn't matter what percentage of the workforce is public/private, as long as like I said before, productivity isn't an issue (and absolutely healthcare workers and teachers contribute to economic production). Now if it were all administrative/bureaucratic and middle management positions that were the bulk of the public sector growth there would be problems. But from what the statistics show its that its front line workers that comprise the bulk of public sector employees.

I think what is crucial is not trying to determine what portion of provincial GDP comes from the public sector, rather deciding what functions the tax base decides it wants government to have, and then simply audit if it is doing the function effectively/efficiently. Obviously we expect our taxes to go to healthcare, education and infrastructure, and these are things that require a public sector. A large public sector can be an indication that it does indeed perform its function more efficiently than the private sector can.

If the concern is about sustainability of the overall provincial economy, as an entrepreneur, don't lament the public sector, focus on ways to generate new business. And also, don't flee the province to go spend your savings and retirement income elsewhere.

Riverman Dec 30, 2014 3:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Arts (Post 6859269)
I think what is crucial is not trying to determine what portion of provincial GDP comes from the public sector, rather deciding what functions the tax base decides it wants government to have, and then simply audit if it is doing the function effectively/efficiently. Obviously we expect our taxes to go to healthcare, education and infrastructure, and these are things that require a public sector. A large public sector can be an indication that it does indeed perform its function more efficiently than the private sector can.

If the concern is about sustainability of the overall provincial economy, as an entrepreneur, don't lament the public sector, focus on ways to generate new business. And also, don't flee the province to go spend your savings and retirement income elsewhere.

Here, very close to 0% of health care and education is provided by the public sector.

People leave on retirement for many reasons, mostly climate, but also because Manitoba taxes low income earners more than any other province.

Stormer Dec 30, 2014 3:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Arts (Post 6859269)
You don't have to do anything to sustain it (that is the whole definition of sustainable: it either continues to function as is or it doesn't). It doesn't matter what percentage of the workforce is public/private, as long as like I said before, productivity isn't an issue (and absolutely healthcare workers and teachers contribute to economic production). Now if it were all administrative/bureaucratic and middle management positions that were the bulk of the public sector growth there would be problems. But from what the statistics show its that its front line workers that comprise the bulk of public sector employees.

I think what is crucial is not trying to determine what portion of provincial GDP comes from the public sector, rather deciding what functions the tax base decides it wants government to have, and then simply audit if it is doing the function effectively/efficiently. Obviously we expect our taxes to go to healthcare, education and infrastructure, and these are things that require a public sector. A large public sector can be an indication that it does indeed perform its function more efficiently than the private sector can.

If the concern is about sustainability of the overall provincial economy, as an entrepreneur, don't lament the public sector, focus on ways to generate new business. And also, don't flee the province to go spend your savings and retirement income elsewhere.

My sustainability comment was about growth of the public sector being greater than the private sector. There are economies that work that have a large proportion of GDP in the public sector, but it cannot work in the long term with out non-government growth to pay for it.

I think you will find that Saskatchewan also has a large % of GDP and employment in the public sector, but that growth in the private sector has been faster for at least 10 years.

Stormer Dec 30, 2014 4:07 PM

This company's potash project near Craik has a chance of proceeding as it requires much less capital and has significant Chinese backing including a presumably bankable off-take agreement.

Typical potash mines now cost a minimum of $4.5 billion, so if one can find a way to reduce the amount of capital at risk, it could be feasible. The problem with smaller scale of course is that your cost per tonne is usually higher.

It is interesting that it is a Saskatoon story, but Craik is actually closer to Regina.

http://globalnews.ca/news/1747434/sa...e-to-province/

Arts Dec 30, 2014 4:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stormer (Post 6859316)
My sustainability comment was about growth of the public sector being greater than the private sector. There are economies that work that have a large proportion of GDP in the public sector, but it cannot work in the long term with out non-government growth to pay for it.

I think you will find that Saskatchewan also has a large % of GDP and employment in the public sector, but that growth in the private sector has been faster for at least 10 years.

Fair enough... my main concern is that there is not much value in comparing provincial public sector sizes without also comparing the scope of services provided and other circumstantial factors.

In SK, if the private sector grew faster than the public sector, then the overall GDP likely went up thus the %GDP of public sector should actually go down unless it kept pace, or outpaces overall growth.

If there are concerns about the scope of the public sector, then privatize (which I think is an awful idea for things government should have a natural monopoly on) or if the concern is about efficiency of government providing these services then show the audits (comparing to national average is meaningless in this regard).

But all that matters in terms of sustainable economies, is the total GDP (is it growing? Shrinking? unchanged?) I personally don't think that the size of public sector can pose any harm to economic growth, unless it were a problem with lack of productivity, such as too much administration - however it is not accurate to call public sector workers "bureaucrats" like so many pro-business people tend to do.

Simplicity Dec 30, 2014 5:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Arts (Post 6859330)
Fair enough... my main concern is that there is not much value in comparing provincial public sector sizes without also comparing the scope of services provided and other circumstantial factors.

In SK, if the private sector grew faster than the public sector, then the overall GDP likely went up thus the %GDP of public sector should actually go down unless it kept pace, or outpaces overall growth.

If there are concerns about the scope of the public sector, then privatize (which I think is an awful idea for things government should have a natural monopoly on) or if the concern is about efficiency of government providing these services then show the audits (comparing to national average is meaningless in this regard).

But all that matters in terms of sustainable economies, is the total GDP (is it growing? Shrinking? unchanged?) I personally don't think that the size of public sector can pose any harm to economic growth, unless it were a problem with lack of productivity, such as too much administration - however it is not accurate to call public sector workers "bureaucrats" like so many pro-business people tend to do.

This whole comment is dumb, I'm sorry.

Firstly, to correct your assertion that healthcare workers and teachers contribute to economic production, you're really out on a limb here. They are simply utilizing taxation already awash in the economy. If your argument was that they're contributing to the economic productive capacity of a future generation or that their service allows people to be back at work, then you might have a point. But you weren't making that point. You were implying that money that we can redistribute in an economy is as valuable as somebody who can create value from outside by creating increased aggregate demand and that's simply not true. We have no idea what the value of a teacher is. There's plenty to suggest that might be 'not much' outside of a glorified baby-sitting service given that a teacher is a fixed cost regardless of how far back Manitoba students fall relative to the rest of the country - and they're falling - but they get raises and large pensions at early ages, regardless.

I can fairly clearly see your politics and they're clouding your judgment. You need to quickly disabuse yourself of the notion that money in anybody's hands is money in good hands; that isn't how economies work. Bureaucrats - which I will happily call them, thank you - don't 'reinvest'. They might save (bad), they might retire earlier (bad), they may take an extra vacation (bad), but they definitely aren't building anything. They are 'risk-averse' by the very nature that makes them good government employees. That resources are being diverted into these hands and out of the private, productive economy is bad. The simple transaction here is that money is taken from a small/medium sized business and put in the hands of a government employee who will get a raise because - well, because. And that might be fine if government had a history of being more productive than the private sector, except we know very well that the opposite is true. The bureaucracy keeps growing, creating needless regulation to justify its size, and then continually giving itself raises to ensure it's always more comfortable than the private sector. And this isn't a political statement. That the NDP is currently in power is irrelevant to me. But there are no such thing as natural government monopolies outside of what some professor might tell you. Rigid, unionized bureaucracies are by their very nature too unaccountable and completely at the mercy of an engrained lack of innovation and flexibility otherwise required of large enterprises in order to succeed. That comes along with guaranteeing the middling and unambitious employment for life. I would love to hear the rationale for a natural monopoly on liquor sales.

I always love coming across comments from people who have obviously never spent a day working in the private sector. It's always so obvious because this idea that resources are infinite and that you're entitled to them is always so pervasive. And the contempt is never far behind. It's not unlike the rich-kid who hates his parents for their bourgeois taste but would never consider working a part-time job because that's below them. Your little comment about 'pro-business' couldn't be anymore tone-deaf. We all have to be 'pro-business'. Without business, there's no government (or did you forget how an economy works?). Even in your socialist utopia there's business. This idea that a lazy bureaucrat completely divorced from the consequences of their productivity or total lack thereof is somehow just as value to our economy as a private sector entrepreneur is something only somebody who thinks like you could leave as a comment and not feel embarrassed about.

Authentic_City Dec 30, 2014 5:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bdog (Post 6859059)
As a side note, it would be interesting to see the numbers (% public sector) for all of the provinces.

You have to calculate the percentages yourself, but here is the link to the relevant Stats Canada tables:

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tabl...abr66h-eng.htm

Here is my quick arithmetic:

Percentage of Total Employment by Public Sector
(% change Nov 2013-Nov 14)

BC 17.5% (+0.9)
AB 16.4% (+1.8)
SK 24.1% (+0.6)
MB 26.3% (+6.2)
ON 19.2% (+0.9)
QC 22.3% (+1.2)

I stopped at QC, but you get the idea. MB and SK have by far the largest public sector workforces in this part of the country. Growth in public sector employment MB over the past year is high to be sure.


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