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Instead, I think we'll continue to be a city for people who have made money elsewhere. Pity. Quote:
Anyway, this is not the politics subforums, so I will stop here. |
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The thing about BC is, it is a lot more than just Vancouver.
Even if LNG adds only 500 to 1000 office jobs in Vancouver through 4 or 5 projects directly (which is still nothing to sneeze at) it will also add many spin off jobs in the metro-area. The real winning locations will be the communities that the LNG facilities themselves will be located in, supplying many full time permanent good salary positions. And again, such industrial complexes will also add spin off jobs as well (blue and white collar). It is annoying how people always only think about Vancouver. And there are plenty of risky unstable industries that Vancouver has vested its future into, welcome to the real world. Vancouver just has the benefit (thanks to its size) of having a more diversified economy, but a crash in real-estate prices could devastate the city, much more than other locations in the province ;) |
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You don't notice it unless you leave the Lower Mainland, but a lot of people in BC are frustrated with how dominant Vancouver is in the province. I don't blame them. If you think about it, BC is one of the most unipolar provinces, and easily the most unipolar of the most populated provinces. The top 6 largest cities in BC are all in the Lower Mainland. Kelowna and Victoria don't even come close. Even in Ontario, where Toronto is "the centre of the known universe" :roll eyes: there is at least Ottawa to balance it out. In a nutshell, who cares if it creates jobs in Vancouver... There are plenty of jobs being created there. What matters more is that jobs will be created in some of the smaller struggling communities. |
First shoe has dropped
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http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repor...ticle21923667/ |
I bet the projects have missed the window. Even before the drop in prices (LNG has traditionally been priced by energy value equivalent to oil) it was iffy BC could make the window. If I remember correctly the market should tighten up in the middle of the next decade again.
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Well, firstly the current short-term oil price blip (6 months - 2 years) really does not have much to do with same. Petronas proposed LNG facility would not come on stream until 2019 in any event. That is another 4+ years.
Secondly, most LNG contracts linked to the JCC are oil-indexed yet they are typically S-Curve contracts. IOW, the price of oil has a basement of roughly $45 per barrel and a ceiling of $85 per barrel in these LNG contracts in order to protect and hedge both the seller and buyer. And these are long-term 30+ year facilities. Not dependent upon todays short-term oil price flux. Most LNG facilities are also contracted out for 80% - 90% of their capacity. Leaves another 10% - 20% available for spot sales based upon the then prevailing market. In any event, none of the foregoing matters much to the proposed Petronas LNG facility as both Petronas and its partners are all end-users to boot. Unlike Shell or Chevron which are not-end users. Petronas also intends to pool some of the production for its other existing contractual obligations. I always assumed that a firm FID was not in the cards this December. Yet I certainly suspected that they would go for a soft FID. BTW, December, 2014 has always been the timeline date for their FID since the get go a few years back. The reason? Petronas still requires its federal CEAA environment certificate. The 365 day clock stopped back in May (day 167) and only recently restarted. Means that the CEAA certificate will not be issued until sometime in April, 2015. Cannot proceed with hard FID until that has been received. Albeit, it has been reported that they are quite confident that they will receive same based upon media reports. And since then they have satisfied the outstanding juvenile salmon issue with respect to Flora Bank (utilizing a 1.6 km suspension bridge instead of trestle requiring no dredging that would disturb the sensitive eelgrass beds on Flora Bank). Petronas is also now apparently completely satisfied with the BC government with regards to all aspects under their control. Even the BC preem and LNG industry minister Coleman were mentioned in their press release today confirming same. Another major current obstacle appears that Petronas wants the bidding contractors to sharpen their pencils after relatively recently receiving their bids. Quote:
But this tidbit certainly stands out: Quote:
Right now, I would wager that Petronas will make their FID sometime in mid-April, 2015. After they have received their CEAA certificate and finalized the financial terms with their contractors. PS. When the head of Petronas late last week was quoted as saying that 75% of the checklist had been completed toward their FID, the other 25% obviously still remained outstanding. |
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Canada is a high cost environment (energy) for construction of energy infrastructure and it may take delayed projects and layoffs to bring down the rates. China is expected to significantly ramp up LNG imports over the next ten years and surpass Japan as the world's largest importer, I have read that they have started construction on another 4-5 new LNG import terminals this year... somebody knows something... we'll see. and on the heels of that....looks like oil will go down further. Canada may need the LNG terminals and the associated construction jobs more than ever.... Saudis escalate oil price war, sending crude slumping again Dec 4, 2014 - Globe and Mail Quote:
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The biggest impact will be the plant themselves, which will create thousands of ongoing production jobs in the northeast (export terminals) and northwest (NG supply) parts of the province. |
I was so happy when I saw gas at 116.9 this morning, which I haven't seen since before the Arab Spring. Then I opened today's paper...
I wonder how much this will impact carbon tax revenues. Will Christy's dream of replacing the Patullo, or Dianne Watts' dream of LRT, be delayed also? |
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I'm sure this office will expand even more in the years to come :) This office is just gravy (10 jobs to start heh) and about time they finally figured it out... :)
National Energy Board to open office in Lower Mainland for community outreach and pipeline inspections Vancouver Sun - Dec 4, 2014 http://www.vancouversun.com/news/Nat...394/story.html |
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And, like mentioned, more foreign work: Petronas wants engineering work for B.C. LNG venture to be shifted offshore VANCOUVER — The Globe and Mail - Dec. 04 201 Quote:
Also, looks like they will squeeze the Alberta gas well drillers and pipe layers to lower their prices. |
A lot of things are changing in the Asian gas market that are pressuring the economics of BC LNG. On the plus side maybe the oil pipeline jobs will start looking better to Crusty as her LNG dreams go poof.
http://www.321energy.com/editorials/...sey120614.html The huge gas export deals that Russia struck with China in May and October—with an agreed-upon price ranging from $8-10 per million British thermal units (mmBtu)—has likely capped investors’ expectations of Chinese natural gas prices at around $10-11 per mmBtu, a level which would make shipping natural gas from Canada to Asia uneconomic. At these prices, not even British Columbia’s new Liquefied Natural Gas Income Tax Act—which has halved the post-payout tax rate to 3.5% and proposes reducing corporate income tax to 8% from 11%—can make Canadian natural gas globally competitive. These tax credits are too little, too late, because Canada is years behind Australia, Russia, and Qatar’s gas projects. This means there’s just too much uncertainty about future profit margins to commit the vast amount of capital that will be needed to make Canadian LNG a reality. |
Negative comments from Alberta. We must be getting close. ;)
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I wouldn't say it is that. It is the BC attitude that this would be easy. In Alberta we have lived this for a long time, and know even vast resources are hard to develop. Outside of the business press the attitude in BC seems to have been 'we're in the money!'.
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Guess AB also has its fair share of enviro nutbars as well. Embarrassing for AB quite frankly. To wit, the previous AB poster linked to an article that is wholly outta the mainstream and factually incorrect. I could respond to same but why bother. Hundreds of other global LNG articles out there, every day, that are also factually incorrect. For example, Bill Gwozd of Ziff Energy Services of Calgary is renowned as a reputable NA natural gas specialist as well as an Asian LNG specialist who has prepared detailed reports on behalf of LNG proponents at the NEB. Very analytical stuff. Some of the best info out there. Not some poorly researched newspaper article. Yet we get AB interlopers posting in this thread who deliberately attempt to both derail and mislead for some obvious nefarious purpose. And, frankly, their ignorance and stupidity is bliss. Am not a type to ad hominem. But sometimes I have just gotta call em out. Perhaps they are hard-core AB enviros? Perhaps they have some sort of strange grudge against BC for their perceived impressions against pipelines from AB to the coast? Well they better think again. Just last week Insights West released an opinion poll of BCers and their attitudes of the Northern Gateway pipeline as well as KMs proposed twinning of the Trans Mountain pipeline. Guess what? The majority of BCers do not oppose same. In fact, only 21% state that KMs TMP efinitely should not proceed. In that same vein, only 28% of BCers state that the NGP definitely should not proceed. Again, some of the Albertans posting in this thread are either completely ignorant of LNG per se or have some other grudge against BC. Pity them and embarrassing for AB. |
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