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-   -   What if Fresh Water was the new Oil? (http://forum.skyscraperpage.com/showthread.php?t=224105)

Jets4Life Jul 26, 2016 10:07 AM

What if Fresh Water was the new Oil?
 
If fresh water became as rich a commodity as Oil, how long would it take for Winnipeg to surpass Calgary and Edmonton in population? How long would it take for Brandon to surpass 100,000 people. How long would a Northern Manitoba city become the boom town that Fort McMurray was for the past 20 years?

Dalreg Jul 26, 2016 11:54 AM

Um, never. Water runs downhill. It comes from Alberta. Winnipeg/Manitoba would have nothing unique to offer.....

Riverman Jul 26, 2016 1:18 PM

The majority of Lake Winnipeg water comes from the east through the Winnipeg River system.

Stormer Jul 26, 2016 3:02 PM

Huh? Alberta still wins. Almost all the water comes from there and they don't have to pump it uphill to get it anywhere.

Stormer Jul 26, 2016 3:34 PM

Riverman is sort of right. I just looked it up and the Winnipeg River is the biggest contributor to the inflow at 33% to Lake Winnipeg and it does come from the SE. Still most of Manitoba's water comes from SK, ON and ND including from the Saskatchewan, Churchill, Assiniboine, Qu'Appelle, Souris, Red and Winnipeg Rivers.
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...-Ma-rivers.png

Cyro Jul 26, 2016 6:43 PM

I'm glad we've established, that one way or another, West, South and East water flow from multiple areas of the country and the United States all eventually ends up in Manitoba...Who knew..

Can't go wrong with investing in fresh water supplies, wherever they originate, it's like cemeteries, It will always be in demand.

Riverman Jul 26, 2016 9:24 PM

Winnipeg River inflow is 49%, Sask River 25%. Bloodvein is a fairly large river too, so the majority of inflows come from the east.


http://www.gov.mb.ca/waterstewardshi...resolution.pdf

Stormer Jul 26, 2016 9:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Riverman (Post 7513488)
Winnipeg River inflow is 49%, Sask River 25%. Bloodvein is a fairly large river too, so the majority of inflows come from the east.


www.gov.mb.ca/waterstewardship/water_quality/state_lk_winnipeg_report/pdf/state_of_lake_winnipeg_rpt_technical_low_resolution.pdf

Although that was a snapshot form the early 2000's. It appears that it is more like 33% historically.

lilwayne Jul 27, 2016 12:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dalreg (Post 7512947)
Um, never. Water runs downhill. It comes from Alberta. Winnipeg/Manitoba would have nothing unique to offer.....

Dumbest shit I read

roccerfeller Jul 27, 2016 1:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jets4Life (Post 7512941)
If fresh water became as rich a commodity as Oil, how long would it take for Winnipeg to surpass Calgary and Edmonton in population? How long would it take for Brandon to surpass 100,000 people. How long would a Northern Manitoba city become the boom town that Fort McMurray was for the past 20 years?

Interesting to postulate for sure. A few thoughts:

First off, *if* it happens: there would need to be a worldwide change in terms of what fresh water will do for say the energy industry vs what oil currently does, and also one must presume nothing else takes over (no other alternative energy form takes over) or that the major energy corporations headquartered in AB/SK don't purchase all the small guys in MB and still essentially run the energy sector from Calgary/Edmonton....plus oil is used in so many major supply chain processes in the world beyond use for commercial cars, planes, boats etc... and again water would need to somehow replace it on that global level...it will still be in enough demand that the energy corporations in AB & SK should be comfortable for decades to come, even in times of economic downturn

If anything is going to happen on that scale, it won't be for a very long time (unlikely in our life times, but I suppose one should never say never)



Second, why does it matter to see Winnipeg surpass Edmonton and Calgary in population?

I don't think Winnipeg will ever surpass Calgary or Edmonton in population in any of our lifetimes...It is in some ways close; they are all mid sized Canadian cities, but in other ways it is far behind (for example the recent CMA estimates for Calgary put it at closer to 2x the size of Winnipeg, than it is to the current size of Winnipeg) and if anything the gulf will keep growing larger, not smaller.

Further, look at current or recent trends - According to statsCAN, a relatively stable and growing Winnipeg CMA is losing people at a rate of -0.7% to interprovincial migration whereas Calgary and Edmonton are gaining CMA at +0.7% and +0.9% respectively despite their current historic troubled economies. Now, Calgary has been hit even harder since that study was done, but I don't see that changing on a larger scale for a prolonged period of time.

Winnipeg will continue to grow at a stable, healthy pace thanks to a diversified economy, and if anything is going to really give it some sort of "boom"like economy, I think it will be CentrePort....but even that will takes decades itself to become fully realized, and even then it won't be on oil-boom scale.

But lets say Calgary & Edmonton suddenly stop growing...CMA population estimates from 2015 were:
1,439,800 for Calgary
1,363,300 for Edmonton
793,400 for Winnipeg

I think Winnipeg is over 800k by now, for sure. Lets go with 800k for Winnipeg, 1.3 mil for Edmonton and 1.4 mil for Calgary. The city of Winnipeg shows about a 10k per year growth, give or take, for the Winnipeg CMA and pegs the population to be ~845k by 2020 (only a few years away). If we keep going with that rate, it means in 10 years, Winnipeg CMA would grow by 100k. So in 20 years, 200k. 30 years, 300k. Lets pretend Edmonton and Calgary stay completely stagnant at 1.3 and 1.4, it would take Winnipeg 40 years to hit 1.2 million CMA, 50 years to hit 1.3 million and 60 years to hit 1.4 million. Now this is under the assumption that Edmonton and Calgary don't grow & don't lose people under a hypothetical "water is the new oil" scenario, and that Winnipeg's growth is consistent at 10k per year and doesn't increase (who knows it could, and it will if growth rate stays consistent with population growth)

So given all of that, I don't think its gonna happen - at least not in our lifetimes. I will never say never because 100 years ago, people probably thought and said the same for Edmonton & Calgary which were tiny towns at the time Winnipeg was a booming city, and the third largest in Canada.

But what does it matter? Its cool to think about, but Winnipeg is a great size, it is already plenty big (though it would be nice if the airport was a bit bigger with more overseas connections) and it has an excellent arts scene...it shouldn't matter that its "smaller"...its already got the best NHL team there after all ;)

Dalreg Jul 27, 2016 5:01 AM

Anyway you slice it, Winnipeg will never boom from water. Water runs downhill, anyone uphill can pollute all they want.

Cyro Jul 27, 2016 3:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dalreg (Post 7513896)
anyone uphill can pollute all they want.

Sad but true isn't it?

Sask. oil spill unlikely to make it to Manitoba
http://storage.winnipegsun.com/v1/dy...y=80&size=420x

Quote:

An oil spill on the North Saskatchewan River is unlikely to make its way to Manitoba waterways.

A pipeline breakdown is believed to have released roughly 200,000 litres of oil into the river near Maidstone, Sask. since Wednesday...

An incident report says Husky Energy knew something was wrong 14 hours before it was reported to the Saskatchewan government.
http://www.winnipegsun.com/2016/07/2...it-to-manitoba

Stormer Jul 27, 2016 4:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dalreg (Post 7513896)
Anyway you slice it, Winnipeg will never boom from water. Water runs downhill, anyone uphill can pollute all they want.

Regina is just bringing on line a very expensive, state of the art sewage treatment plant. My flushes go into the Wascana-Qu'Appelle-Assiniboine-Red and then Lake Winnipeg. The water we send you should start to get a lot better. This new plant removes the phosphorus which is the main nutrient for algae.

...you're welcome

Riverman Jul 27, 2016 4:39 PM

If water was the new oil then the praires would not benefit much. One only has to fly over Lake Superior to understand why.

Cyro Jul 27, 2016 4:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stormer (Post 7514235)
Regina is just bringing on line a very expensive, state of the art sewage treatment plant. My flushes go into the Wascana-Qu'Appelle-Assiniboine-Red and then Lake Winnipeg. The water we send you should start to get a lot better. This new plant removes the phosphorus which is the main nutrient for algae.

...you're welcome

Greatly appreciated, every bit of the polluted water sent our way helps.

mattpa Jul 27, 2016 5:03 PM

if water becomes the next oil we will need a military to defend our nation

Cyro Jul 27, 2016 5:09 PM

^ Let's hope it doesn't then, but no worries, we have our big brother to the south to take care of us..

Stormer Jul 27, 2016 5:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cyro (Post 7514272)
^ Let's hope it doesn't then, but no worries, we have our big brother to the south to take care of us..

Trump says he won't do that anymore unless we pay.

Treesplease Jul 27, 2016 9:57 PM

What if oil was the new oil and people realized how important and inextricably linked with everyday life, products, and services it is and appreciated it for the increase it brings to the quality of our lives?

Riverman Jul 28, 2016 1:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Treesplease (Post 7514609)
What if oil was the new oil and people realized how important and inextricably linked with everyday life, products, and services it is and appreciated it for the increase it brings to the quality of our lives?

This should be taught in primary school. With all this anti-pipeline posturing it seems that people don't seem to know what oil does for society.


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