The Manitoba Provincial Politics Discussion
 

In the spirit of keeping 'Winnipeg Construction' strictly about urban development. I thought the time was right to give provincial public policy issues their own space.



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mod edit: political parties websites added

ndp party of manitoba website
http://todaysndp.ca/

conservative party of manitoba website
http://www.pcmanitoba.com/

liberal party of manitoba website
http://mlp.manitobaliberals.ca/

Manitoba removes speedbumps to increase immigration
Province hopes to attract more skilled immigrants

By ROSS ROMANIUK, SUN MEDIA | Sept. 16, 2008

Manitoba can expect to pull in skilled immigrants at a faster pace because of speedbumps removed from a provincial government nominee program, Labour Minister Nancy Allan said today.

The nominee program has been streamlined through a removal of a licensing requirements list — a change aimed at allowing any skilled worker with Manitoba ties to apply to relocate to this province.

At the Philippine-Canadian Centre of Manitoba, Allan announced that the move means that every applicant to the Provincial Nominee Program is assessed purely on occupational merit and potential employability based mainly on training and experience.

Allan added that it’s hoped that the removal of the “barrier” will enable Manitoba to boost its immigration. Last year, the province saw nearly 11,000 new immigrants and their families. Also in 2007, the province’s population rose by more than 13,000 — its second-highest hike since the 1970s.

That's good news. In addition to the nominee program, which I think is fantastic, it is of my opinion that we should set up quotas for refugees. Beyond quotas for countries, x, y, z, we should look at the rest of applications like resumes. Select only the most adequate. I know, certainly federally, that everyone has to wait their turn. I don't understand that. We can't have immigration be an arm of global welfare. We can set aside a bit for that, but the rest needs to be done in the best interests of the economics of the province. I think if you can streamline a system using those 3 tools of immigration - the nominee program, pre-set quotas for those who are struggling abroad, and hand selection - makes for a very, very strong program that hels some in need, allows families to build themselves, and fills necessary economic voids with valuable individuals.

Beyond all this, it is absolutely PARAMOUNT that we add more social housing. That article in the Free Press a few weeks back regarding the Iraqi family who immigrated here, and is living in absolutely squalor because no reasonable places exist to them is terrible. IF we are going to be bringing refugee status individuals in (which I think to a certain number is a wonderful idea) that we need to have the proper infrastructure to set them forth in their new Manitoban life. Otherwise we're wasting the time of the refugees, and the tax payer dollars of Manitobans, and worst of all, creating a human violation.

said in the paper today that winnipeg's CMA population is expected to reach 3/4 of a million by 2012...will grow by 7000 this year.

:previous:
Sounds good. How long do you figure it will be before the city has a metro pop of 800,000?

This is very good news ...at least it seems like it. I'm not clear on what it is that they've removed though. Given that I'm all for increased immigration and think the PNP is the greatest thing for this province, I can't help but wonder if maybe there is a certain line we don't want to cross. These licensing requirements or whatever they are...well, why were they a requirement in the first place ?

Many of the immigrants that I've talked to have told me that part of their problem is that their skills aren't recognized in Canada. The reason for this makes good sense : not all training is equal. A doctor in India may well be a great doctor by Indian standards but upon arrival in Canada , the tools at their disposal and the methods used to deliver quality healthcare confound them. It's not that they can't adapt of course but it costs money and new arrivals seldom have much no matter what their status was back home.

So, with that said, what exactly is it that we've relaxed here as far as the rules go ? Are we making it easier for skilled workers to get up to speed in Canada by doing the paperwork later (not necessarily a good thing) or are we getting rid of a level of unnecessary bureaucracy ?

As I said, don't get me wrong, we need more people and I'm very glad to hear that we're finally getting them. I just want to know if we're going about it with the same level of responsibility as always.

MGEU wants province to pay better mileage

Updated: September 17 at 02:55 AM CDT | Winnipeg Free Press

RISING gas prices have provoked Manitoba's largest public sector union to call on the Doer government to better reimburse workers who use their own vehicles.

The Manitoba Government and General Employees' Union launched a campaign Tuesday to urge Finance Minister Greg Selinger to increase the mileage reimbursement rate the province uses to compensate workers who travel to do their jobs.

MGEU president Peter Olfert said the campaign will also demand the government adjust the rate regularly when the price of gas rises or falls.

He said those workers most impacted by high gas costs are rural home-care workers and social workers who have to travel long distances as part of their jobs.

Olfert said Manitoba has the lowest mileage reimbursement rate at 39.7 cents per kilometre. Other provinces are about 10 cents higher.

The union hopes to meet with the provincial government in the coming weeks to decide what reimbursement rate would be fair.

The MGEU commissioned a public poll on the issue and found that 75 per cent of Manitobans agreed with the union's position that requiring employees to cover more of the costs of gas than before was "unfair." The poll was considered accurate to within five percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Anyone want to make some predictions regarding Manitoba's 14 federal ridings?

Here are my "I'd bet on it" picks:

NDP
Elmwood-Transcona
Winnipeg North
Winnipeg Centre

Liberal
St. Boniface
Winnipeg South Centre

Conservatives
Brandon - Souris
Charleswood - St.James - Assiniboia
Dauphin - Swan River
Kildonan - St. Paul
Portage - Lisgar
Provencher
Selkirk - Interlake


Too close (for me) to call:

Churchill: I think it'll be close between Keeper and Nikki Ashton. That said, Bev Desjardins is not running this time to split the NDP vote, so this could very well give Ashton a huge advantage. Question is, will Keeper being an incumbent make-up the difference?

Winnipeg South: John Loewen may appeal to the old PC Party type of voter. However, Fletcher cleaned his clock in the last election, in Charleswood. As for Bruinooge, I can't stand that guy and I would like nothing more than seeing him experience electoral defeat. I believe he beat out Alcock by about 100 votes in the last election. The timing of this election may give the Libs the edge. It's not winter, so many university students who also live in the riding may vote, who wouldn't otherwise on a cold January day (and that usually won't be a Conservative vote, unless things have changed drastically from my UofM days).


Ridings that people may claim could be close, but I don't:

St. Boniface: People constantly underestimate Simard. I'm also thinking that the old unwritten rule that you need a French surname to win federally is still in effect for this riding. It's only the people who take CJOB seriously that will buy into the Shelley Glover "tough on crime" single issue mentality.

Winnipeg South Centre: no way the densely populated area of Osbourne Village votes for anything that looks or smells Conservative. Also, people underestimate the strength of the organization and network of the Neville campaign. Kennerd is a former Bomber kicker... not sure what his other qualifications may be, or if kicking a football is a qualification for anything other than... kicking a football. He's working hard at retail politics in the area, but I think it's an area where people are more concerned regarding national issues of social importance (and I'm not referring to social importance as being "wholesome family values" - quite the opposite actually).


And, a note about Provencher (Vic Toews):

It'll be interesting to see if this Mennonite-dominated area is willing to turn a blind eye, and become total hypocrites in voting for Vic Toews.

Toews has fathered a child out of wedlock with a much younger woman (apparently in her early '20s). As such, he's now undergoing a very messy divorce.
Source: Click Here (page two of the article)

Vic's a man who so obviously defied one of the most basic of the 'core family values.' He's a man who in elections past portrayed himself as an old-fashioned moralist. Are they willing to turn a blind eye and stick-it to God/Jesus/the Church/the Ten Commandments? We'll see. You can be sure that in another Toews landslide, most of those votes would've been from someone of a Mennonite or otherwise religious fundamental background. They're doing their best in Steinbach to have this issue go away.

Remember last election, when a sign went up in Winker (another heavily Mennonite area), indicating that "A vote for the Liberals is a vote for the Devil" (in reference to same-sex marriage). I'd like to go down to Steinbach this weekend with my own sign: "A vote for Toews is a vote for adultery." Though, I'll try to think up something a bit wittier...

Don't get me wrong... I'm not religious myself. But I do so enjoy watching (and pointing out) the hypocrisy and contradictions of religious groups.



On another note... Ritz the Ag Minister... joking around about listeriosis. Stupid bastard! I do, however, enjoy watching the Cons shoot themselves in the foot... no wonder Harper keeps a tight leash on those guys.

http://canadianpress.google.com/arti...noo3vZcsj8FWAQ

:previous:

I dunno, I get a funny feeling that Thomas Steen is going to pull an upset.

Yes, i'm aware that Transcona-Elmwood is probably the safest NDP seat in the country, but Jim Maloway has absolutely no profile.

Here's a guy who has made a life long career out of being just another warm body filling a seat at the Leg.

That guy has probably been running Elmwood-Transcona for as long as i've been alive, and I still have no idea of what he looks like or what he stands for.

As one of the electrical engineers at my work likes to say, "when you don't ever do anything, its hard to hold anything against you."

The rest of your picks seem pretty solid.

Kildonan - St.Paul is always a tight race, but this election the Liberals are nowhere to be seen. I don't even know who the Liberal is for the riding.

I don't think it's Terry Duguid.

Now, tell us how you really feel about Vic. Don't hold anything back now! :notacrook:

War of words, but no debate, in Elmwood-Transcona

Last Updated: Wednesday, September 17, 2008 | 8:56 AM CT - CBC Manitoba

Federal election candidates in Elmwood-Transcona agree that repairs slated for the Disraeli Freeway are a major issue for voters in the Winnipeg riding — but the campaign manager for one candidate says an election is no time for a public debate.

The City of Winnipeg plans to close the 40-year-old, four-lane bridge while it completes more than $125 million in upgrades to the structure, which crosses the Red River.

But several politicians in the area have called for the bridge to be twinned to allow traffic to move on one side while the other is under construction, and to provide extra capacity for future traffic.

The NDP's Jim Maloway and Conservative candidate Thomas Steen both say they have been hearing about the issue as they knock on doors in the riding.

Maloway, who supports the twinning option, wants a debate about the matter, but says his efforts have been met with silence.

"We know he lives in Tuxedo somewhere, but we can't find him to invite him to the debate," he said.

Debate not necessary: Steen campaign
Steen says he has never heard the invitation, and is still learning about local issues

But the Tory candidate's campaign manager, Jeff Browaty, told CBC News a debate is not worth the trouble.

"It's sort of been my experience in the past [that] people who go to those debates already have their minds made up, you know, they're from the various campaigns," he said.

"Any member of the public that has any questions can certainly ask Thomas and get the question to Thomas," he added. "We have a barbecue this weekend — I mean, he's certainly available to any member of the public to answer any questions."

Ironically, Browaty, the Winnipeg city councillor for North Kildonan, spearheaded the debate about twinning the Disraeli bridge at Winnipeg City Hall.

'Signs' of trouble
Candidates' issues with election signs are also raising eyebrows in the riding.

A close look at NDP candidate Jim Maloway's signs reveals duct tape covering the "re" in "re-elect."

Maloway, who stepped down as MLA for Elmwood to run federally, doesn't deny he's recycling them from the last provincial campaign; he says Elections Canada allows it.

Meanwhile, the Tories say their candidate's signs have been disappearing. Steen — a former star player on the now-defunct Winnipeg Jets NHL team — has been signing them, and fans may be stealing them.

CBC's calls to Wes Penner, the Liberal candidate in the riding, were not returned.

churchill could be interestingly close one...

Umm that's one sick activity you do for fun, you seriously go around telling religious groups and people what they are doing wrong, for the sole purpose of making yourself feel better about your own believes or lack there of. What about teachings of forgiveness, who's to say that if these people vote for Vic its not because they believe that we are all human and can make mistakes and that perhaps this man has made some mistakes in his life, and that at the same time he is still capable of representing their best interests for the community. I don't see why you should be going and telling these people how to vote based off of your sick pleasures of pointing out hypocrisy.

While I don't support Vic nor do I denounce him, I can still respect the man for accomplishments he's made and the effort he has put in to serve his country and constituents. Just like I can respect other MPs for their good works even though they may not follow all of the same believes as I do.

Just a thought but maybe you should put your efforts into something more productive and beneficial.

Conservatives
Brandon - Souris
Charleswood - St.James - Assiniboia
Dauphin - Swan River
Kildonan - St. Paul
Portage - Lisgar
Provencher
Selkirk - Interlake
Winnipeg South
Winnipeg South Centre

NDP
Elmwood-Transcona
Winnipeg North
Winnipeg Centre

Liberal
St. Boniface
Churchill

I'm wishin' and a hopin' that St. Boniface falls to Shelly Glover, and I do think she has a shot, but in the end of the day, I think Simard will be headed back to Ottawa.
I think Tina Keeper hauls in Churchill for the Liberals, although, aside from last election's split vote, this is perhaps the only riding I know near nothing about.
I think Anita Neville's days are done in Winnipeg South Centre. It will likely be very tight, but I do think there are a few more Conservatives in Osborne Village than some give credit too. Not tonnes, but enough to get Kennerd into the House.
Rod Bruinooge is in my opinion a very safe Conservative seat. A lot of attention is being given to Loewen, but I can honestly say, I have yet to see a John Loewen yard sign. This is my riding and I have spent some time going up and down streets in Riel, River Park South and it is nothing but Tory Blue. I could be surprised, and although I don't think it will be a blow out, I think it's a comfortable Tory win.
Elmwood-Transcona, I'm sorry OtL, but I can't see Maloway losing. I couldn't see Curious George losing in that riding. As long as you have a pulse and you sport an orange banner, you're in. But I do agree, Maloway is a hack.

The Capital Region outside the CMA is about 50 - 60,000 people.

When the CMA reaches 750K.. the Capital Region will pass 800K

what is the latest pop stats anyways?

How much longer until The Annexation? :(

How is this not exactly what Christian groups do? Please... I'd be interested for you to point out how my highlighting what they are "doing wrong" to make me "feel better" is any different than the tactics utilized and what they foist from the pulpit. (hey, I just got to point out another hypocrisy, thanks!).

Secondly, of course I'm not really going down to Steinbach with a sign! I never said I was going to, just that I would "like to." Much like how I'd like to get a BJ from Scarlett Johansson.... I've said it many times, yet it still hasn't transpired.

Please note, if I'm going to do something, I will clearly indicate it. "Like to" is a dream, not a declaration of pending action.

Did Vic ask for forgiveness? Or, is everyone in Steinbach and the Mennonite churches turning a blind eye? Trust me, no asking for the forgiveness of the Provencher electorate has been made. In '06, Vic ran as an old-fashioned moralist, showcasing his family and playing up social values. Liar!

I refer you to my earlier response re: "telling people what they are doing wrong." Again, religious groups seem to be allowed to do it, why can't I?

If anything, you've helped to highlight a common Christian notion that majority opinion is allowed many enhanced freedoms of speech as opposed to a minority view such as mine. Besides, I'm an obscure internet poster here on SSP. I ask... which is less problematic... me here on an internet forum, or the Winkler sign? What do you find more outrageous?

While I don't vote for the Cons, and I am not a fan of Vic, I do understand your argument as there have been certain MPs or MLAs from parties that I oppose, which I have personally respected the work they have done and their dedication to our country, province, blah blah blah.

If everyone here put their efforts into something productive and beneficial, we wouldn't be posting to internet forums now would we? ;)


Anyway, will the hard-core Mennonites vote strategically, or will they decide based on their beliefs and vote for the Christian Heritage Party? Guess we'll see!

Question... do you know if there is a defined capital region? Is Selkirk in the capital region?

Well first of all it has to do with intentions, most of the religion groups I know, if they do tell you that you are doing something wrong its not because they want to make themselves feel better its because they want you to understand so that you no longer commit those same "sins" and so that you can be "saved", be able to go to heaven etc. etc. depending on the religion.

They tell you what you are doing wrong for your benefit not for theirs, so this is how it differs from what you are doing; your self gratification is not the same as a religious group wanting to "save" your soul.

Also I mistook your "I would like to" for an "I am going to" my apologies.

As for Vic asking for forgiveness I never said that he did, nor did I say the people would turn a blind eye. You can forgive someone who has not asked for forgiveness, and at the same time you can be fully aware of what was done and not have to pretend it didn't happen.

At no point in time did I suggest your right to freedom of speech should be taken away, so don't start saying that I think religious people deserve more rights then you because that's not what I said. What I was implying is that through your own free will and good judgment I would hope that you would not go do such an act of protest such as march around Steinbach with a sign. By all means if you want to, you are allowed to; I just think that it's the right thing to do, in this situation.

Also I do not condone the sign put forward in that community, I think it was an over characterization of the liberal party, just because I don't approve of your "potential" actions does not bean by default that I approve of theirs.

Also I don't have unconditional support for anyone, everyone makes mistakes. So my support of the Conservatives goes only as far as how much I support each of their decision and actions. Depending on the idea or action, I can strongly support them or completely disagree with them, in the end more of their actions and decision at this point in time line up with what I believe in, so they get my vote this time around. However some of their actions and decisions I don't believe in, I don't think there are very many people that support 100% of what any party wants.

As for being productive I think posting comments on relevant topics that concern our city, province, country and the world we live in is productive. These actions helped to build understanding and knowledge that can be applied to other activities that will result in more noticeable outcomes.

It's just like studying; just because it doesn't give you anything at the moment you doing it doesn't mean it won't affect some outcome or activity latter on in your life.

I'll wait for your response, then I think we should PM this back and forth if you want to from here so that we don't plug up this forum with our philosophical debates

[QUOTE=DowntownWpg;3808582]Anyone want to make some predictions regarding Manitoba's 14 federal ridings?

Here are my "I'd bet on it" picks:

NDP
Elmwood-Transcona
Winnipeg North
Winnipeg Centre

Liberal
St. Boniface
Winnipeg South Centre

Conservatives
Brandon - Souris
Charleswood - St.James - Assiniboia
Dauphin - Swan River
Kildonan - St. Paul
Portage - Lisgar
Provencher
Selkirk - Interlake


Too close (for me) to call:

Churchill: I think it'll be close between Keeper and Nikki Ashton. That said, Bev Desjardins is not running this time to split the NDP vote, so this could very well give Ashton a huge advantage. Question is, will Keeper being an incumbent make-up the difference?

Winnipeg South: John Loewen may appeal to the old PC Party type of voter. However, Fletcher cleaned his clock in the last election, in Charleswood. As for Bruinooge, I can't stand that guy and I would like nothing more than seeing him experience electoral defeat. I believe he beat out Alcock by about 100 votes in the last election. The timing of this election may give the Libs the edge. It's not winter, so many university students who also live in the riding may vote, who wouldn't otherwise on a cold January day (and that usually won't be a Conservative vote, unless things have changed drastically from my UofM days).


Ridings that people may claim could be close, but I don't:

St. Boniface: People constantly underestimate Simard. I'm also thinking that the old unwritten rule that you need a French surname to win federally is still in effect for this riding. It's only the people who take CJOB seriously that will buy into the Shelley Glover "tough on crime" single issue mentality.

Winnipeg South Centre: no way the densely populated area of Osbourne Village votes for anything that looks or smells Conservative. Also, people underestimate the strength of the organization and network of the Neville campaign. Kennerd is a former Bomber kicker... not sure what his other qualifications may be, or if kicking a football is a qualification for anything other than... kicking a football. He's working hard at retail politics in the area, but I think it's an area where people are more concerned regarding national issues of social importance (and I'm not referring to social importance as being "wholesome family values" - quite the opposite actually).


And, a note about Provencher (Vic Toews):

It'll be interesting to see if this Mennonite-dominated area is willing to turn a blind eye, and become total hypocrites in voting for Vic Toews.

Toews has fathered a child out of wedlock with a much younger woman (apparently in her early '20s). As such, he's now undergoing a very messy divorce.
Source: Click Here (page two of the article)

Vic's a man who so obviously defied one of the most basic of the 'core family values.' He's a man who in elections past portrayed himself as an old-fashioned moralist. Are they willing to turn a blind eye and stick-it to God/Jesus/the Church/the Ten Commandments? We'll see. You can be sure that in another Toews landslide, most of those votes would've been from someone of a Mennonite or otherwise religious fundamental background. They're doing their best in Steinbach to have this issue go away.

Remember last election, when a sign went up in Winker (another heavily Mennonite area), indicating that "A vote for the Liberals is a vote for the Devil" (in reference to same-sex marriage). I'd like to go down to Steinbach this weekend with my own sign: "A vote for Toews is a vote for adultery." Though, I'll try to think up something a bit wittier...

Don't get me wrong... I'm not religious myself. But I do so enjoy watching (and pointing out) the hypocrisy and contradictions of religious groups.



On another note... Ritz the Ag Minister... joking around about listeriosis. Stupid bastard! I do, however, enjoy watching the Cons shoot themselves in the foot... no wonder Harper keeps a tight leash on those guys.

http://canadianpress.google.com/arti...noo3vZcsj8FWAQ[/QUO



Newbie to SSP
I live near Steinbach and this was the first I heard of this....
WOW ... I didn't know Vic had it in him :cheers:

Conservatives will win in Provencher not because of religous views (although they are the issues you hear the most of) but the economy. The economic engine that runs our area is small to medium size buisnesses. Any thing that puts a strain on that engine ie TAXES is not welcomed here.

Now it's my turn, my apologies for claiming that you give the Cons unquestioning support. I had actually thought about that just after making my replies, and went back and edited it out. But, I guess you were already working on your reply before I had edited it out. I don't know you personally so it was wrong for me to assume this of you. Again, my apologies!

I agree with this... I wrote "If everyone here put their efforts into something productive and beneficial, we wouldn't be posting to internet forums now would we? ;)" as a joke... hence my wink. Sarcasm is sure difficult to convey in the text format, at least, if you don't know the person and how they deliver jokes (in fact, my original Vic post may have had you chuckle a bit, if delivered in person).


While I believe that in this case, politics and philosophical/theological values are intertwined, I understand it's best we don't flood this thread with it. Have enjoyed this this discussion thus far, and will send you a PM later to discuss further. We're on opposite sides of the fence, I would imagine, but those are often the best conversations. Otherwise, we'd essentially be just patting each other on the back.

Cheers! :)

From one newbie to another, welcome!

Spread the word! Feel free to print-off my post regarding Vic and hand it out at the bar... oh wait... I meant the coffee shop. :D

The pharmaceutical industry has made billions by giving wealthy white men hard-ons.
(not an original joke of mine... forget where I had heard it)

Winnipeg still has a ways to grow before we swallow up Thunder Bay, but we're working on it! :D

Voters bring up Toews scandal
Rival candidates stick to policy questions

By: Bruce Owen

Updated: October 1 at 02:50 AM CDT | Winnipeg Free Press

IT'S an issue unique to this south-eastern Manitoba riding, but not one likely to be debated between the incumbent and the four challengers who want his job.

Earlier this year, Conservative MP Vic Toews found himself on the receiving end of some unflattering stories involving his personal life that wouldn't play well in the province's Bible Belt. In fact, the relationship the province's most powerful federal politician had with a Tory staffer who is now a young mother, apparently had him, at one point, considering stepping down from politics to be appointed a Court of Queen's Bench judge.

Toews, the former justice minister and current Treasury Board minister, declined to comment on the reports as he stressed that he intended to stay in politics. Meanwhile in court, divorce proceedings from his wife of 33 years continued.

The matter faded away after Toews wrote in the Steinbach Carillon, inviting constituents to contact him directly if they want to talk to him about private matters he refused to discuss with the media.

"Every day, every situation and every decision bring choices as to which path to take," Toews wrote. "Most times I believe that we choose the correct path; however, as human beings we will sometimes choose incorrectly. I am no exception and I take full responsibility for the decisions I make."

Now, almost four months later, talk of Toews' personal life is again an open topic as Liberal, NDP, and Christian Heritage Party candidates knock on doors in the Steinbach area.

"That comes up often, almost as often as health care," Liberal Shirley Hiebert said. "I tell them I don't want to go there, that I want to talk about the issues. Obviously, if they're talking about it, it's a concern."

NDP candidate Ross Martin and David Reimer of the Christian Heritage Party have heard the same thing at the door.

"Many people are bringing it to my attention," said Reimer, founding pastor of Shalom Family Worship Centre in Steinbach.

Martin, like Reimer, said when it comes up with voters, his reply is quick.

"We're dealing with policy," Martin said. "We won't delve into it. Policy is what counts."

The fifth candidate running in Provencher is the Green Party's Janine Gibson. The independent organic food inspector ran in the last federal election in 2006, getting 1,830 votes to Toews' 25,199.

Hiebert, who earned a PhD studying First Nations health care, said other issues in the riding are child care, the economy and the environment.

This is Toews' fourth federal election campaign since 2000, when he was first elected to represent Provencher, which has a long history of voting Conservative.

The riding includes Lac du Bonnet, Steinbach, Altona, Lorette and Pinawa, where candidates meet Oct. 9 for an all-party forum. The riding also includes several native reserves and Whiteshell Provincial Park. The agricultural sector employs most people, followed by manufacturing and the service industry.

bruce.owen@freepress.mb.ca

I think GLOVER (Cons) has a very good chance in St. B. she's been prepping for 2 yrs and although old st.b and norwood are hard core liberal, the riding also includes island lakes, southdale, royalwood which are all heavy conservative. she stresses she is METIS and has 5 KIDS, although she not french, she has a chance!

Also her role with the Winnipeg Police gives her name recognition. The best part however is that she is intelligent and down to earth, I was fortunate to have a conversation with her about a year ago and I was impressed.

She was walking the beat on my street this summer. Very friendly and didn't say anything about me standing on the sidewalk with a glass of wine. She would have my vote.

My hoping for Tervor Kennerd in South Centre seems to be a very fruitless prospect. I really was hoping that people in the riding would tire of Anita Neville. Perhaps that riding is much like Winnipeg South, where you vote more for the colour of the sign, and not so much the name on it.

^ what qualifications besides kicking footballs does Kennerd have though? If I lived in that riding, it would be my first question to the Conservatives.

It seems to me that the (at least in Winnipeg) the conservatives place more meaning on name recognition than they do actual political chops.

Thomas Steen, Trevor Kennerd, Shelly Glover... these are all names people are familiar with. Maybe they are nice people... but so what? There are lots of nice people out there.

I suppose, Tina Keeper isn't a household name. I don't think Shelly Glover can be aptly depicted as a prop-candidate. I'll grant you Kennerd and Steen. However, in Manitoba - more so vivid at the provincial level - we elect nobody. We just kick people out. I still contend that Doer has never been elected. We booted Filmon out, and Doer was left as the best flavour, with no replacement yet available, and thus on Broadway he will remain. Federally, people in Winnipeg South tired of Reg Alcock. You can argue that he spent time away - and that certainly hurt him - but Conservative MP's in Alberta spend much of the election a long way from their territory. Alcock was ousted because he was there a long time and because people in Winnipeg South tired of the Liberal brand. I don't think on any level people can contend that Rod Bruinooge is in ANY way a stronger candidate than Alcock. I actually like John Loewen, and detest to great lengths Bruinooge's concrete anti-abortionist stance. However, I'm a huge fan of Harper and will be voting for the brand. Thus, to come full circle, even though Trevor Kennerd doesn't offer too much political experience I was hoping the Winnipeg South Centre riding (of which a portion of it is very affluent) would tire of a perceptively weak Liberal leader and a party that in my opinion appears to ignore the interests of the West, and instead cast their ballot Tory Blue. In this equation, having a recognizeable name never hurt anyone. Alas, it is how Sam Katz got into City Hall.

People in South Winnipeg didn't tire of the Winnipeg brand, they got caught up in the whole Adscam fiasco that allowed the conservative candidate the opportunity to squeak out a victory in an otherwise safe Liberal seat.

Had Adscam not happened, Alcock would still be where he is, and further, Glen Murray would be the MP for Charleswood/Assiniboia.

The way that Alberta votes is a pretty isolated case I would think. I brought this up in the Canada votes thread, but in Alberta it seems that any Conservative Candidate could go door to door in their constituency and punch every eligable voter in the face, and still win with 75% of the vote.

Alberta would vote in 90 to 100% conservative MP's even if Stephen Harper ran a campaign to reinstate the NEP, and a full fledged Monarchy system with himself as King (well the King part isn't that far from the truth).

Persoanlly, I am an ABC in this election.

Traditionally I am a soft Liberal supporter. However where I live (Winnipeg Centre) there is little chance that Pat Martin will NOT win. Therefore I will vote NDP so that I don't in effect split the centre/left votes to somehow let the Conservative Candidate a chance to squeak in.

I hope this election ends the same as the previous with a Conservative minority. This will give the Liberals official reasons to dump Dion, and put somebody electable in his place. I really hope it's Kennedy.

Alcock had almost the same votes for him in the last election as he did in the previous one. The difference this last time around was voter turnout, with one of the highest voter turnouts in Western Canada. The majority of those "new voters" who showed up voted conservative. So I think what that says is that Rod campaigned well enough to convince people that they had to take action to defeat Reg. So this completely follows the we don't vote people in we vote people out mentality.

^ that's not entirely accurate.

Take a look at this wiki page regarding WInnipeg South:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winnipeg_South

Alcock's support went down 10% last election. Even with or without the "extra" votes, the loss in popular support is what cost him the election, not extra people in the voting booth.

Going back further in the election data on the page, it is obvious that Winnipeg South has a fairly close amount of support historically between the Liberals and Conservatives.

Check the results from 1953, 1962, and 1988. All within a couple hundred votes.

Glen Murray would have never have won Charleswood/Assiniboia. Why he chose that of all city ridings to run in, I'll never know.

what qualifications do you need to run for politics? people are dissing a patrol sargent, a former kicker, a former hockey player....who cares. would you rather have some book smart guy with a phd that has never really worked in real life or maybe a lifetime civil servant? give me a former entrepreneur that worked hard to get where he/she is any day over someone like that.

Again, I invite you to check the wiki page.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles...0%94Assiniboia

Murray lost by 734 votes. That seat was certainly considered "safe" by the Liberals, and I guarantee that he would have won had Adscam not happened.

In the previous elections when John Harvard held the seat for the Liberals, the PC/Alliance combined vote total always exceeded the Liberal total by a fair margin. The fact that Murray only lost by 734 means he stole away a lot of previous conservative votes, and again, would have won had the Liberal popular vote not fell.

Well the kicker, hockey player and police officer are certainly not "entrepreneurs".

Why shouldn't we expect that people running for political office shouldn't possess something other than a pretty face and charisma?

I am a huge lover of politics - BUT - if you are a talented individual who can succeed in the business world (a private world) then why in heavens name would you consider public life unless you were a glutton for punishment, or really truly believed that you and you alone could be a beacon of change?

Case in point:
If I'm a successful entrepreneur, then I'm likely making well in excess of 6 figures annually (or more) where my life - although fairly hectic (vis a vis business demands) - is still private, and unobstructed (more or less) by the general public. As soon as I opt for a public life, every step I take and if my rank is high enough, the steps of my wife is put under the microscopic. Above and beyond the interrogation by numbers, I would be taking a substantial financial hit. Thus, unless I have a legit chance at sitting in the PM's chair - or a portfolio of choice, like Defense, or Trade (and nobody starts at the top) - then what would be the allure?

As it stands today, our premier in Manitoba is paid somewhat like an average small business owner. Perhaps the taxpayer won't justify a significant salary hike, but there is no way you are going to draw top-tier talent for $120,000 or so annually.

Of course, this is just my opinion, but the people who possess the skills we need/desire can apply their abilities in a certain sector and earn at a substantially higher level.

Then again, I'm not trying to argue that a Mitt Romney-type is a hero. Just that skills tend to equal big dollars in the private sector.

my point is that leaders that i vote for don't need to have poli sci degrees.

^ great. It's that kind of "root for the ordinary guy" that has the US very close to electing Sarah Palin as the VP. Be careful what you wish for...

the Free Press INSIDERS (which I'm a part of) shows Glover in St. B taking a even furhter lead.

In the swing riding of St. Boniface, where Conservative challenger Shelly Glover has led consistently since the first Insiders poll in early September, incumbent Liberal Ray Simard has now dropped to 26 per cent of decided Insider voters, down 13 points from his 2006 election tally. Glover leads with 57 per cent.

Respectfully, I myself wouldn't put any stock into online polls, even ones where you sign up for membership. It's well known that parties will have their volunteers all sign up, the Cons are notorious for this (organized by "The Blogging Tories"), and one individual may have multiple accounts (going so far as to only log in to each account on separate computers or IP addresses).

Much the same way that whenever there is a CFL poll on cfl.ca or tsn.ca, the Rider's always win it.

I would also argue, to counter any possible point that one may reply with, that to gage the way a riding may swing based on the number of volunteers (or election signs for that matter) is an extremely flimsy gage of public opinion.

I think that the St. B riding will probably feature the narrowest plurality of the Manitoba riding in this election... which is a nice segway into my next post...

My updated Manitoba riding predictions...

All Winnipeg incumbents win (and every riding has an incumbent), so no change for the city.

As I just said, St.B will be extremely close, but I give it to Simard for the reason that the Lib's support is not as noticeable as that of the Cons. Also, don't underestimate how the slight downturn in the Con's polling numbers also exists in MB's swing ridings.

Further, the Harper/Con's attack on culture and the arts will be more relevant an issue in St.B than any other MB riding (Harper said something to the effect that artists are "like spoiled children" and also generalized them all as being into "expensive gala events"). Is this true? Yeah, in most cases... but you don't say it.

I shouldn't have to point out that one of the key strategies for maintaining Franco-Canadian culture is through the arts, music, etc.

Outside of Winnipeg, the only thing that may change is Churchill, but I'm beginning to think that Tina Keeper will hold on for a win.

To sum it all up, I wouldn't be at all surprised if Manitoba has no changes, whatsoever, int he MPs we send to Ottawa for the next Parliament.

we all have the right to an opinion and my opinion is that you are wrong about the St. B riding. The Franco-Canadians will conitnue to support Martin (oops I mean DION) and his liberals....HOWEVER look at the election boundries. They extend way out past Old St. B and into Southdale, Windsor Park, Island Lakes, Royalwood. These are not "real" french neighbourhoods. The Cons came close last election and they were running a "male ex-businessman". Now they are running a Female Cop, big diference and the audience in these neighbourhoods like it. This is my opinion and I'm not a paid Cons supporter.

You are still an election behind...

good lord I need to drink more coffee when my kids keep me up all night!

While I do understand what you are saying about the revised election boundaries, my feeling (particularly in these surburban areas) is that the Lib voter is not as 'in your face,' noticeable, or otherwise self identifying.

As such, I believe the same of the specific neighborhoods that you have mentioned (Southdale, Windsor Park, Island Lakes, Royalwood). We will probably see in these areas in terms of % of the vote that we do nationally.

While the Cons will finish ahead in those specific areas, the Libs will garner roughly 30% of the vote in these areas. The NDP, maybe around 20%.

However, the Lib voter turnout in the traditional St.B will be what will tip the scales. They will have roughly 50% in this zone, where most of the population in the riding is (IIRC). On the flip-side, the Cons only receive 40-46% in Southdale, Windsor Park, Island Lakes, Royalwood.

But, who knows? This is, as you pointed out, a newly redesigned riding, and neighborhoods change and can defy popular wisdom.

Either way, this will probably be the most interesting riding to watch on election night.

I don't believe those boundries have changed for a few elections. However Island Lakes, Royalwood have simply expanded.