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As U.S. 'superstar' cities thrive, weaker ones get left behind

Business News July 19, 2019 / 6:16 AM Howard Schneider 8 Min Read

Quote:

WHERE THE GROWTH IS ... AND ISN’T

The U.S. economy entered a second decade of growth this month, marking the longest expansion on record.

In many ways the country has seemingly recovered from a 2007-2009 recession that was the worst downturn since the 1930s. Unemployment is near a 50-year low, household income has been rising, and the country is at a point in the business cycle when workers typically see their most robust gains.

But a Reuters analysis of federal data shows just how unevenly the spoils of growth have been divided.

In a ranking of 378 metropolitan areas by how their share of national employment changed from 2010 to 2017, 40% of the new jobs generated during that time went to the top 20 places, along with a similar share of the additional wages.

Those cities represent only about a quarter of the country’s population and are concentrated in the fast-growing southern and coastal states. None were in the northeast, and only two were in the “rust belt” interior - Grand Rapids, Michigan, and a rebounding Detroit.

Nashville ranked 11th on the list, keeping company with other southern towns like Charlotte and Atlanta, and the usual fast-growth suspects like Seattle and San Francisco.

The drop from there is steep. The next set of 20 cities captured about 10% of the jobs created from 2010 through 2017, close to their roughly 7.5% share of the population.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-u...-idUSKCN1UE13B

https://graphics.reuters.com/USA-ECO.../NASHVILLE.jpg

The article is long so I quoted what I thought was the biggest take away. There's some interesting stuff about Nashville and Houston so feel free to bring up what you think is important. Kinda surprised nobody else posted this here yet.

I wish I was cool and lived in a superstar city :(

It's official, New York is dead :(

Bow down to our 2% superiority.

Only people from 2%+ cities can post here now.

Not to be a "LA jerk"again, but LA and SF are doing better than both. :cheers:

Quote:

Originally Posted by the urban politician (Post 8658443)

I wish I was cool and lived in a superstar city :(

The 2010-2017 one is mostly just a measure of which cities crashed the most during the recession and had the longest to go to recover.

Maybe I'm on to something about investing in Detroit?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Obadno (Post 8658553)

Bow down to our 2% superiority.

Only people from 2%+ cities can post here now.

Los Angeles and Dallas laugh at those 2%ers. :P

Quote:

Originally Posted by the urban politician (Post 8658443)

I wish I was cool and lived in a superstar city :(

Dont worry, I'm sure Libertyville will get there one day.

Quote:

Originally Posted by dave8721 (Post 8658562)

The 2010-2017 one is mostly just a measure of which cities crashed the most during the recession and had the longest to go to recover.

That theory really only applies to Detroit. And if that is it, why didn't other Rust Belt cities, such as Cleveland, similarly rebound? OTOH, San Francisco, Seattle, Portland, are probably the three cities that weathered the 2008 crash the best.

Quote:

Originally Posted by the urban politician (Post 8658443)

I wish I was cool and lived in a superstar city :(

Alabamans can brag that they're touching a high-growth (2%+!) metro.

I'm always surprised at how ridiculously enormous U.S. metropolitan areas are. (Well, I'm aware of it by now, but still, always amazes me.)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sun Belt (Post 8658795)

Maybe I'm on to something about investing in Detroit?

Actually if you're going to let this article decide for you, forget Detroit and instead choose L.A.-Long Beach-Anaheim which is at the top. More convenient for you as well... no need to move.

Quote:

Originally Posted by lio45 (Post 8658984)

It's not like Canadian ones are much different.

What is that Elkhart Indiana making an appearance in the next 20 metros? Guess they were hit pretty hard in the recession.

Quote:

Originally Posted by iheartthed (Post 8658945)

Austin hardly even had a recession at all.

Quote:

Originally Posted by lio45 (Post 8658984)

Its because they use counties to determine Metro and CSA borders (which is stupid in my opinion)

It works in older states with small counties but western states with massive counties look absurd like LA and Phoenix the cities themselves take up a small fraction of the "metro" borders most of that yellow space is open wilderness or farms.

That's very true. I'm always amazed when some people say LA stretches to Arizona or Nevada, as if there are subdivisons and stripmalls to the border. It's a bunch of nothing for 90% of it.

Unemployment for selected midwestern metros from recession to summer 2019:

Detroit:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=oDgx
Jun 2019: 4.5% unemployment

Chicago:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=oDgK
Jun 2019: 4.0% unemployment

St. Louis:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=oDgD
Jun 2019: 3.4% unemployment

Kansas City:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=oDgN
Jun 2019: 3.3% unemployment

Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve