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The speculation is that an endorsement may help Rahm in those outskirt areas of the city |
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http://www.chicagobusiness.com/artic...-election-poll |
well, on top of working his way up the political ladder to the cook county board, it looks like Chuy Garcia was also able to raise a fine young man of a son.
and by "fine young man", i mean "piece-of-shit gangbanger". Quote:
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Frankly this whole "Rahm is as anti-machine as you can get" is frankly just pro-Rahm propaganda. Rahm is shades of grey, you can argue it either way and in some ways that is part of his genius, he can get some machine votes in addition to many people with a more reform sensibility. Also on the other side you have progressives who always say "Rahm is so machine because he worked for Daley, blah blah blah". There is no "one all powerful machine that controls everything" anymore, there are mini-machines and machines within machines and odd coalitions of reformers and progressives, some who support Rahm and some who don't because again people can see him either way and do. Chuy Garcia and Bob Fioretti, love them, hate them or indifferent to them are clearly non-machine (unless you count Chuy's Latino grassroots organizations going back to the Harold Washington days as a "machine", still there is a HUGE irony in anyone thinking a guy who got his start in the Washington days could possibly be machine or "old Chicago", credit to Rahm's spin doctors if they actually convince people of that). I mean dear lord I think I actually read someone argue on here that Karen Lewis is machine! I say this as someone who has both machine and reform sensibilities myself, I understand the history of Chicago politics but to claim that it is as simple black and white as "Rahm is the most reform politician ever" is simply ludicrous and it undercuts any argument one can make about the good reforms Rahm has made. Quote:
Two surveys came out today. In the first, Emanuel had 41.2 percent, a smidge below last week's 41.7 percent. There were 20.9 percent undecided. But in the second, "undecided" was not an option. In that one, Emanuel hit 51.3 percent—enough, if accurate, to avoid an April runoff but within the survey's error margin of 3.71 percent. I'd caution that the poll didn't push undecided voters to make up their minds. Rather, voters just didn't have the option of "undecided." First poll, there were 969 respondents. Second poll, 727. Most other surveys I'm familiar with find Emanuel at around 40 percent or slightly above, with a huge undecided figure. If those folks break heavily against him and actually vote, he's headed for a runoff. But if they stay home—as some undecided voters are wont to do—or if he captures at least a third of them, it's time for him to write his inaugural speech. Solid analysis there, it is within the margin of error and it all depends on what the undecideds do, if they even end up voting. So this result is not surprising to me, my prediction was that it will be very close, maybe even recount to see whether or not there is a run-off. It also helps that both polls, one with undecided as an option and the other not an option, are done by the same pollster. As far as what you said about the odds of Rahm surviving a runoff thanks for clarifying that you are of the camp his odds would be better than 50%. I have gotten into vehement disagreements with people who say that Rahm's chances of winning a runoff are less than 50% (albeit usually anti-Rahm people) so it is interesting to hear the other side of the argument. So I say 50/50 given arguments about his funding but also taking into account the large anti-Rahm sentiment out there. |
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Rahm is not so secretly anti union (just look at his buddy Rauner's actions today below), he only won the AA vote in the last election because of Obama, not the machine, he doesn't have any of the organization infrastructure that defines the machine (precinct captains, union alliances, borderline patronage at all turns, etc). If he doesn't have the machine style organizational structure, then he's not machine. |
And Team Rahm unleashes the first wave of carpet bombing:
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Also even looking at who his PAC is attacking and supporting it is not as simple as "reform-non-machine" vs. "machine-old Chicago". If so I guess that means Waguespack and Arena are "machine" and Deb Mell (daughter of long time Alderman Dick Mell and sister of Patti Blagojevich) is "reform/non-machine. Granted I support some of the candidates his PAC is supporting such as my own Alderman Mike Zalewski (23rd, who BTW is machine). Also you made no response to what I said about Alderman Quinn (13th) supporting Rahm, that guy rose up in the ranks of Mike Madigan's machine, yes Madigan machine forces are behind Rahm this time, as old school machine as you can get putting up Rahm yard signs with machine infrastructure and tactics. Not to mention the fact that Richard M. Daley himself just pretty much endorsed Rahm. In 2011 BOTH Rahm Emanuel and Gery Chico were machine candidates who got different factions of the machine and some non-machine voters. Rahm Emanuel got machine support from parts of the north side in 2011 in addition to some north lakefront progressive, transplants and African Americans. Gery Chico got the Southwest side machine, some far northwest and southeast side machine support and a majority of the Hispanic vote. Also Daley behind closed doors pretty much endorsed Rahm in 2011. There is stuff I know that I can't document (maybe you can google it and find something) but as someone who was active in the 2011 campaign and lives and is active in southwest side politics I knew what was going on in the final weeks of that campaign. In Bridgeport the Daley forces endorsed Rahm at a meeting and there was almost open revolt among the 11th ward Democratic precinct captains and regulars between the Rahm and Chico forces. So as much as some people want to believe this revisionist history fairy tale that 2011 was about "reform" Rahm and machine Chico and everyone else I know that the truth is in reality 2011 was really about machine infighting over who gets to control post Richard M Daley Chicago. In fact if you combine Rahm Emanuel's and Gery Chico's vote count than 80% of the vote went for machine candidates in 2011. |
I guess my last point is that I really don't care if someone loves Rahm and thinks he is a wonderful mayor and hates Chuy and thinks he would be terrible but don't go around saying stuff like Rahm is reform and Chuy is machine, that is just laughable to anyone who has studied Chicago political history.
Anyone who thinks so needs to open up a book and read about Harold Washington and the council wars of the 1980's. Chuy was elected alderman as a Harold Washington ally in 1986 to counteract a pact of 29 machine Alderman. Harold Washington is still to this day considered the epitome of reform politics in Chicago and Chuy got his start in that era. While it is unfair to try and equate Rahm with the politics of the 1980's it is clear that he is more aligned with the remaining political descendants of the 29 machine anti-Washington Aldermen than any reformers from that era. In fact I can connect the dots for you, Rahm's PAC is supporting Deb Mell who who is the daughter of former Alderman Dick Mell who was a member of that 29 bloc of Alderman who for lack of a better word filibustered anything Washington did, in fact there is famous picture of Dick Mell standing on top of a desk and yelling during a city council meeting trying to appoint Harold Washington's successor after he died. What is Rahm going to say next? Harold Washington was machine, Rahm invented the very notion of reform as an idea in politics for the human race that has been 100% dominated by machine forces since the dawn of mankind?! |
No, Rahm is using national level tactics on a local level. He is basically running a presidential campaign against these fishbait challengers. That is why he is not going to see a runoff. As far as knocking out alderman being a machine like tactic, it's not. That's just how the government of Chicago works. The Mayor has no real power by himself, maybe slightly more than any individual alderman, but he has the power to pit aldermen against each other and uses that power to build a coalition and control city council. That part of Chicago's government works very well.
Machine like tactics are street organizing entire neighborhoods to the point of intimidation and then handing out patronage to your best ward or precinct captains. That applies as well to organizing labor and then using it to force entire workforces to vote one way or another... |
Ok enough kidding around kids
Rham has got this line BHO had slick HRC's Balls in a swing The BHO visit will siphon - 20 % of the hood that all rham needed anyway to not go to a run off If rham did need a runoff 99% He would win and if any punk did not think so ill k Take your silly crap money as easily as stealing from a dead person That said I want money from those that think rham has a 50/50 I will bet 2 k if it goes to it if you only pay $ 200 That's 10 to one odds against me I will take all serious offers Anyone that does not pay up in 90 days should be banned Nothing Other to say |
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On the other hand, she's also Patti Blagojevich's sister, so maybe not. |
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Who and What are Machine these days vs Who/What are not??
Interesting discussion above on who/what is and isn't machine these days.
It can always devolve into mere definitions and semantics, however I have to same I'm much more with Chicago103. I still have trouble thinking anyone is arguing in good faith if they are presenting Rahm as any sort of outsider, reformer, or not fully part of the true inner spirit of good 'ole fashioned Chicagaww machine style politics. It just isn't so - at his core, that is not at all what he is about. If you actually believe that, it means he's likely pulled one over on you. Think about it: If he's brought the machine into his fold, ie 90% or whatever of old fashioned machine politicians support him and work for him, etc - he hasn't changed the machine, and brought it over to his side - rather, he now is the machine (actually though, he never 'left' it) Pinstripe patronage is still patronage. In an age where many are deluded into thinking corporations and hedge funds are people, and money is speech, those strategies - advancing policies and/or awarding contracts that your benefactors explicitly or implicitly want/expect in exchange for their campaign contributions - is in fact fully "machine". It's not at all about labor causes = machine, corporatism policies = not machine. That's not only a crude analysis, but a wrong one. Rahm is definitely a full-fledged member of the machine. Just because one may like some pro-business policies that he may (or actually may not) have, and one dislikes traditoinal, corrupt Chicagaww machine politics, does not in fact make Rahm not machine. Also, to try to make a case that Karen Lewis is more machine than Rahm is borders on laughable. She is definitely more of a legitimate 'outsider'....... |
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:micdropandout: If you don't agree than try to :takemymoney: |
I don't think Rahm's behavior indicates he is a machine politician so much as just a politician in general. Rahm has embraced or at least co-opted many reformers like Forrest Claypool, while picking away at traditional Machine patronage sucks like Streets and San, CPS, and City Colleges. His tactics are those of a shrewd politician but not particularly old-school Chicago.
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You can't because it doesn't exist. If he is winning a race by dumping 1%er money on his enemies that's literally the opposite of the bottom up approach the machine took. Rahm is going top down, he has the support of the elite and they are funding his propaganda campaign. That's how Federal races are won. The classic Chicago machine tactic was to win a campaign by getting mass support from huge sections of the population through a system of patronage, pay to play, and intimidation. It was, as I say above, a block by block, house by house, method. Please let me know when someone you know from your block comes to your door and tells you (they don't ask, they tell) to vote for Rahm. Please let me know when your union boss tells you that you won't get out of the union hall for any jobs if you don't vote for Rahm. Rahm doesn't use those old school methods because he doesn't have to. When you really look at it, machine style politics are simply outdated in today's world. Rahm is running a campaign based on data and analytic. He has some very very smart people running his campaign who know how to take his pile of cash and use it in the right places at the right time to get the numbers he needs to win. He's going to avoid a runoff by maybe 5%. Why? Because he doesn't need any more than that. He could probably run up the tally into the 60's if he really wanted, but why do that? It would be a waste of money. If you don't think he doesn't know exactly where the numbers are right now you are crazy. The goal is to spend the minimum amount needed to win and then use the rest to consolidate power. The only way you can call him machine is if you completely change the definition of the term. This is a 21st century campaign and it is being run by the same group of people who got Obama into office. This is an entirely new way of doing things. I know a lot of these people, it's all science at this point. |
Can I give the cutest candidate award to Alyx Pattison, 2nd Ward hopeful? I believe she is in a close race, so if elected she would certainly be the best-looking in Council.
Hard to see where she stands on development, the proof is usually in the pudding. On the other hand, she hasn't taken a crazy anti-developer stance at this point, which is good. I think I like her opponent Brian Hopkins a little more as a candidate - dude worked with VOA to create his own plan for the upcoming Lake Shore Drive re-do, he's an avid cyclist, and I believe he has been involved with Gail Spreen and SOAR, possibly the most level-headed, pro-development neighborhood group in the city. I think we can all agree that either candidate would be an upgrade over Fioretti. http://alyxpattison.org/wp-content/t...a-uri/alyx.png |
Might Rahm avoid a runoff? Sure, of course, but I think some of you are a bit overconfident about it.
http://www.ogdenfry.com/polls/2015Mayoral1.pdf Poll without an undecided option February 14, 2015: Rahm Emanuel 49.2% Chuy Garcia 23.0% Willie Wilson 14.4% Bob Fioretti 8.6% William Walls 4.9% |
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