Provincial Election

[Cre47]

Wanted to start this thread about the upcoming Ontario election coming this fall but probably many know that our good old buddy Randell Danley is running for the PC against Bob Chiarelli.



Citizen columnist ‘gets involved’; Randall Denley to run for Tories in provincial election


By TOM SPEARS and Lee Greenberg May 17, 2011 3:01 PM Comments (10)



Randall Denley joins Tim Hudak to announce Denley’s candidacy for the Ontario Conservative Party in the riding of Ottawa West-Nepean.
Photograph by: Chris Mikula, The Ottawa Citizen

Citizen columnist Randall Denley confirmed Tuesday that he’ll seek a Conservative nomination in next fall’s provincial election, saying he’s following his advice to others — to get involved.

“As a newspaper columnist you can say: ‘Other people should do this, other people should do that.’ You can’t really do anything yourself,” he told reporters.

“If you’re going to make a difference, you have to get involved in the process.”

It was a hard decision, he said: “I think the election in Ottawa West-Nepean is going to be a lot more fun to write about than to participate in.”

He called incumbent Liberal Bob Chiarelli “a tough opponent,” but wouldn’t comment on him otherwise.

Denley said Ontario faces rising energy costs and the expenses of the HST. These are job killers for young people and they erode the savings of older people, he said, and these are the issues that drew him to the campaign.

“People who have followed my writing over the last 19 years know that I fight for taxpayers. Now I want to take that fight to a new arena at Queen’s Park,” he said.

A date for the nomination meeting has not yet been set.

Party leader Tim Hudak called Denley “a star candidate,” and said the party leaders have discussed their support of Denley with others who might have entered the nomination race.

“It certainly was conveyed to (other) candidates that there was a star candidate in the race. It was very well received,” he said.

Hudak said the other potential candidates are supporting Denley. The provincial Liberals put out a statement saying Hudak forced them to step aside.

Denley is taking a leave until the election, and would quit the paper if he wins. He has been on staff since 1983.

Running for office “is something that people have often suggested to me, but it’s something I never really pursued,” he said. “I think this is a unique opportunity. I think we have a strong party, I think we do need to make change in Ontario, and I want to be part of that change.”

Asked about local issues in the riding, he said they tend to be the same as the provincial ones — taxes and energy costs.

Chiarelli, who serves as infrastructure minister in Dalton McGuinty’s cabinet, said Denley would make an “interesting” candidate.

“I welcome Randall to the race and look forward to the opportunity to engage in a very interesting debate,” he said late Monday night.

Chiarelli added he will look to Denley to clarify Hudak’s ambiguous policy stances on issues like full-day kindergarten and the unpopular harmonized sales tax. Tories have opposed both measures but are unclear on whether they would scrap them, said Chiarelli. Denley has written in his column that the HST is good for businesses.

“I’m hoping the candidate will be willing to answer those questions that Tim Hudak refuses to answer,” Chiarelli said.

The provincial Liberals, meanwhile, are pointing to what they say is a contradiction in Tory policy. In appointing Denley, Hudak overrode an open nomination process in Ottawa West-Nepean, effectively shelving the candidacies of three lesser-known figures. Hudak refused to do the same in Carleton-Mississippi Mills, where, earlier this year, libertarian upstart Jack MacLaren challenged — and eventually triumphed over — veteran MPP Norm Sterling to win the nomination.

Premier Dalton McGuinty was asked about Denley’s entry into the race Tuesday morning.

“I welcome anyone from any background who chooses to enter into the race as a candidate,” he told reporters. “You know, there is so much cynicism felt for politics and political institutions. And, as I say, I welcome anybody who chooses to get involved … And I know that Mr. Chiarelli, in particular, welcomes the competition.”

Hudak called Denley “one of Ontario’s finest journalists.”
© Copyright (c) The Ottawa Citizen

[eternallyme]

An interesting point about Norm Sterling, but really, he is a poor fit for the riding. The rural parts of Carleton-Mississippi Mills are Tea Party-dominated, and Kanata is not exactly a liberal enclave either. The big problem might be after the next redistribution since Hillier and MacLaren may fight over nominations if Lanark County is reunited (presumably with more of rural Ottawa, but not Kanata).

[Proof Sheet]

An interesting point about Norm Sterling, but really, he is a poor fit for the riding. The rural parts of Carleton-Mississippi Mills are Tea Party-dominated, and Kanata is not exactly a liberal enclave either. The big problem might be after the next redistribution since Hillier and MacLaren may fight over nominations if Lanark County is reunited (presumably with more of rural Ottawa, but not Kanata).

The sell by date for Norm Sterling has long expired. Anybody I know who has tried to get hold of him to try and assist them with an issue has had frustrations with him...he tends to disappear. His sense of entitlement and indignation that his nomination for the riding would be challenged could have been his undoing. However, the one issue of Jack Maclaren will be a scary proposition if he gets in.

All I can think of when I imagine the Carleton Lands Group is Farmer Palmer from the Viz comics

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Farmer_Palmer

Get off my land.:banana:

[Dado]

An interesting point about Norm Sterling, but really, he is a poor fit for the riding. The rural parts of Carleton-Mississippi Mills are Tea Party-dominated, and Kanata is not exactly a liberal enclave either. The big problem might be after the next redistribution since Hillier and MacLaren may fight over nominations if Lanark County is reunited (presumably with more of rural Ottawa, but not Kanata).

The funny part is that the current riding, Lanark-Frontenac-Lennox and Addington, is one of the biggest-by-population ridings around - about 120,000 - so assuming that a "Lanark-Carleton" riding is reformed from the Lanark parts of L-F-LA and Carleton-Mississippi Mills and the "Carleton" parts of C-MM, then the Frontenac-Lennox and Addington parts of L-F-LA would remain as an open rural riding. One of them might want to move...

[ThePlanner]

Randall Denley has single-handedly ruined this city for decades. Now he wants to spread his path of destruction all the way to Queen's Park. Ugh. No thanks.

[reidjr]

Randall Denley has single-handedly ruined this city for decades. Now he wants to spread his path of destruction all the way to Queen's Park. Ugh. No thanks.

While i am not a supporter of danley i don't see how any any way he has ruined the city.

[Dado]

Denley's only been at the Citizen for 23 years, and 18 as a columnist. I'm afraid that Ottawa had been ruined long before Denley showed up in either capacity.

Had the City paid attention to his critiques of the N-S LRT in the years leading up to it, we might well have been better off. I can't see how he'd make any worse a representative than Bob Chiarelli.

http://www.ottawacitizen.com/columnists/Randall_Denley.html

Randall Denley has been examining local and provincial issues for the Citizen for 23 years, first as city editor, and for the last 18 years as city columnist. His focus is on how government spends your money.

... just in case the Citizen deletes his bio...

[lrt's friend]

I am sorry but Randall Denley is one of the key people who banged the drum loudly that has created the current LRT mess. He is strongly in favour of the mega-dig, which may prove unaffordable and send us back to the drawing board yet again and this is the reason why we have only built more busways in the last 5 years.

[Ottawan]

Denley's only been at the Citizen for 23 years, and 18 as a columnist. I'm afraid that Ottawa had been ruined long before Denley showed up in either capacity.

Such a sunny, optimistic perspective.

[RTWAP]

I am sorry but Randall Denley is one of the key people who banged the drum loudly that has created the current LRT mess. He is strongly in favour of the mega-dig, which may prove unaffordable and send us back to the drawing board yet again and this is the reason why we have only built more busways in the last 5 years.

All true, but I still agree with him. I want a very good system, not an mediocre one. If we aim for mediocre then we'll probably end up with craptastic.

[lrt's friend]

I really question Tim Hudak's plan of tax cuts and elimination of the deficit. He has submitted a plan to cut the budget by 2% per year over the 4 year term. This sounds pretty doable doesn't it? Then you consider that health care and education spending will not be affected. This represents 75% of the provincial spending. Now lets consider inflation at 2% per year, which I believe is a reasonable assumption. That means that real government services will have to be cut by 4% per year to achieve a 2% dollar saving. Over a 4 year period, this works out about a 17% cut when considering compounding of interest. But Tim Hudak has committed that this cut will not apply to health care and education. So to achieve a 17% saving on the total budget but applying it to only items in 25% of the budget means that most or all government services beyond health care and education will have to be gutted. A 17% saving on the total budget applied to items representing only 25% of the budget means a cut of over 50% on those items. This will apply to provincial highways, provincial parks, provincial funding of transit projects, provincial jails and whatever is not covered by education and health care. What appears pretty easy to achieve on the surface is actually scary when you look at it in these terms.

I do hope some of my assumptions are incorrect but when you consider that Mike Harris filled in an under construction Eglinton subway tunnel, could that not also happen to Ottawa's tunnel plan given the degree of spending cuts that might be needed to achieve Tim Hudak's spending plan? It is time to pin Tim Hudak and Randall Denley and other Conservative candidates down and get them to commit that they will not renege on the $600 million funding of Ottawa's LRT project over the next 4 years.

[adam-machiavelli]

It's time to not elect a corporate-Conservative provincial government.

[eternallyme]

It's time to not elect a corporate-Conservative provincial government.

What party do you support? The Liberal and NDP platforms aren't exactly very left-wing (i.e. to union levels) either...

[eternallyme]

I really question Tim Hudak's plan of tax cuts and elimination of the deficit. He has submitted a plan to cut the budget by 2% per year over the 4 year term. This sounds pretty doable doesn't it? Then you consider that health care and education spending will not be affected. This represents 75% of the provincial spending. Now lets consider inflation at 2% per year, which I believe is a reasonable assumption. That means that real government services will have to be cut by 4% per year to achieve a 2% dollar saving. Over a 4 year period, this works out about a 17% cut when considering compounding of interest. But Tim Hudak has committed that this cut will not apply to health care and education. So to achieve a 17% saving on the total budget but applying it to only items in 25% of the budget means that most or all government services beyond health care and education will have to be gutted. A 17% saving on the total budget applied to items representing only 25% of the budget means a cut of over 50% on those items. This will apply to provincial highways, provincial parks, provincial funding of transit projects, provincial jails and whatever is not covered by education and health care. What appears pretty easy to achieve on the surface is actually scary when you look at it in these terms.

I do hope some of my assumptions are incorrect but when you consider that Mike Harris filled in an under construction Eglinton subway tunnel, could that not also happen to Ottawa's tunnel plan given the degree of spending cuts that might be needed to achieve Tim Hudak's spending plan? It is time to pin Tim Hudak and Randall Denley and other Conservative candidates down and get them to commit that they will not renege on the $600 million funding of Ottawa's LRT project over the next 4 years.

Education is filled with waste and mismanagement, and enrolment is declining. I'd rather see education privatized partially or fully than most of those other programs cut.

[phil235]

Education is filled with waste and mismanagement, and enrolment is declining. I'd rather see education privatized partially or fully than most of those other programs cut.

How so? It's quite easy to make these broad claims, but less easy to identify specific cuts to be made.

Since the vast majority of the education budget goes to teachers, materials and facilities, how do you propose to make significant cuts without increasing class sizes or forcing students to pay for more of their own materials or reducing the quality of facilities available to students? None of those sound very appealing to me. If anything, we should be increasing our spending on education, and in particular our universities. The nations we will need to compete with certainly are doing that, and shortsighted cuts to education budgets will have a long term impact on our competitiveness as a country.

Fortunately,privatizing a public good like education will never fly, because a) very few people want their kids to be treated as profit centres, b) it is really unlikely that there are any significant savings to be realized by streamlining administration, and c) people are generally quite satisfied with our current education system (as they should be), whereas systems with more privatization (i.e. the US) show demonstrably poorer results on balance.

The one area where I do see waste is in the amount of busing that goes on. We are supposed to be encouraging our kids to be active, and then we bus them 600 m to school. Of course that is the one significant part of the system that is already privatized.

[waterloowarrior]

Combining Catholic and (edit) public boards could produce savings...It's unfair to fund one religion and not others, and based on John Tory's experience (and Ernie Eves before him..) there doesn't seem to be an appetite to fund private religious education.

[reidjr]

Combining Catholic and private boards could produce savings...It's unfair to fund one religion and not others, and based on John Tory's experience (and Ernie Eves before him..) there doesn't seem to be an appetite to fund private religious education.

My concern with that is it would open the flood gates for religion at schools.

[Proof Sheet]

Combining Catholic and (edit) public boards could produce savings...It's unfair to fund one religion and not others, and based on John Tory's experience (and Ernie Eves before him..) there doesn't seem to be an appetite to fund private religious education.

I would agree with you in combining the school boards...it seems silly in many neighbourhoods to have 4 sets of school buses zooming around 1/2 empty, 4 sets of admin staff, 4 HQ's, 4 separate groups fighting for Development Charge fees and to be brutally honest I've met many parents and students in the non-public school board that don't appear to be the most devout people in the world.

When I've described the system that we have here to people from other areas they can't believe that the public funds get split so many ways.

I would wholeheartedly seriously consider a political party that would have the guts to propose a fusion of the school boards. I feel that many people privately are willing to look at it but politically it is a hot potato.

[eternallyme]

My concern with that is it would open the flood gates for religion at schools.

How so if the Catholic school system is eliminated? I do agree that 4 school boards are too many, it should be 1 (the French boards should be eliminated as well and merged into one system).

I am definitely in favour of a voucher system where the parents have the full decisions though. All public schools would be under one board.

[Northern Light]

Both Newfoundland and Quebec have managed to wipe out their religious (public) boards.

Ontario can do the same.

Though in fairness, Ontario's Catholic Boards are very large in some communities.

I think I might be inclined to try to merge French-Catholic and French Public first, as these would produce some fairly large incremental savings (being smaller boards with 2 HQs etc.) while effecting a relatively small number of voters.

It would also have the effect of dramatically improving access to French language education if you kept most (not all) of the schools open

[eternallyme]

Both Newfoundland and Quebec have managed to wipe out their religious (public) boards.

Ontario can do the same.

Though in fairness, Ontario's Catholic Boards are very large in some communities.

I think I might be inclined to try to merge French-Catholic and French Public first, as these would produce some fairly large incremental savings (being smaller boards with 2 HQs etc.) while effecting a relatively small number of voters.

It would also have the effect of dramatically improving access to French language education if you kept most (not all) of the schools open

French schools, interestingly, have not had as significant of enrolment changes - and might even be increasing in enrolment, while English public and Catholic schools have seen their enrolments collapse in the last 10 years or so.

[reidjr]

How so if the Catholic school system is eliminated? I do agree that 4 school boards are too many, it should be 1 (the French boards should be eliminated as well and merged into one system).

I am definitely in favour of a voucher system where the parents have the full decisions though. All public schools would be under one board.

If you take away private school boards your going to see people puch more and more to allow religion in public schools.

[lrt's friend]

I strongly oppose an American style voucher system. This encourages different qualities of education depending on what you can afford, a degradation of the public system because of the lack of political clout of the poorer people left in the system and encourages the formation of schools based on religion and ethnic origin. One of the reasons that Canada has been so successful in having such a wide variety of ethnic groups live in relative harmony is because the vast majority attend the same public schools. This arrangement teaches different ethnic groups to work together and play together. Furthermore, education standards will become much harder to maintain with such a variety of private schools to be kept track of.

[reidjr]

I strongly oppose an American style voucher system. This encourages different qualities of education depending on what you can afford, a degradation of the public system because of the lack of political clout of the poorer people left in the system and encourages the formation of schools based on religion and ethnic origin. One of the reasons that Canada has been so successful in having such a wide variety of ethnic groups live in relative harmony is because the vast majority attend the same public schools. This arrangement teaches different ethnic groups to work together and play together. Furthermore, education standards will become much harder to maintain with such a variety of private schools to be kept track of.

My concern is if you have a public school made up of 60-80% ethnic origin are they acting more like a private school board meaning getting away from some canadian tradiitions etc and replacing it with other traditions etc thats what i think could happen.

[adam-machiavelli]

And what do you think happens when a school is 60-80% anglo and Protestant? The same thing obviously. I don't mind if a school incorporates multiple cultural practices and points of view. It reminds people that there is not just one "true" way of understanding ideas. I agree that when a school's student body is overwhelmingly made up of one ethno-cultural group, it can have an isolating effect that makes people too comfortable with their own beliefs. It is the responsibility of teachers, administrators, staff, parents, students, and school visitors to expose each other to multiple points of view.

[reidjr]

And what do you think happens when a school is 60-80% anglo and Protestant? The same thing obviously. I don't mind if a school incorporates multiple cultural practices and points of view. It reminds people that there is not just one "true" way of understanding ideas.

So if a school had culture practices that go aginst canadian culture and laws you would be fine with that?

[adam-machiavelli]

So if a school had culture practices that go aginst canadian culture and laws you would be fine with that?

You have just made the unfortunate mistake of taking an argument to its logical -as opposed to its pragmatic, conclusion. I refuse to rebut your statement.

[toaster]

French schools, interestingly, have not had as significant of enrolment changes - and might even be increasing in enrolment, while English public and Catholic schools have seen their enrolments collapse in the last 10 years or so.

Do you have a quote or numbers for that? I'm just curious, as I've heard the opposite argument made too, but nobody's ever justified their claims.

[acottawa]

Anyone seen any local polling?

[kwoldtimer]

Anyone seen any local polling?

The Liberal incumbent is rumoured to be leading in Ottawa Vanier .... :haha:

[Capital Shaun]

The Liberal incumbent is rumoured to be leading in Ottawa Vanier .... :haha:

:haha:

[1overcosc]

Anyone seen any local polling?

A lot of recent polls seem to show that the Liberals are doing a lot better in Eastern Ontario than they are elsewhere in the province; Monday's Ipsos poll actually had the Liberals in first in the 613 by a sizeable margin despite being third in the whole province. Others have a similar pattern although not as dramatic.

CBC's poll aggregator and seat projector - https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/onvotes/poll-tracker/ - for the Eastern Ontario region currently predicts the PCs will win 12 seats, the Liberals 4 and the NDP 2. Those 2 NDP seats are likely Ottawa Centre and Kingston & the Islands; so this would mean the Liberals would lose only 1 seat in Eastern Ontario to the PCs (likely Glengarry-Prescott-Russell or Orleans). For the province as a whole, it projects a large PC majority and the Liberals in 3rd place with a mere 10 seats.. so Ottawa would still be mostly Liberal even as the Liberals are just barely above the threshold of official party status, and Ottawa MPPs would make up half the Liberal caucus!

[acottawa]

A lot of recent polls seem to show that the Liberals are doing a lot better in Eastern Ontario than they are elsewhere in the province; Monday's Ipsos poll actually had the Liberals in first in the 613 by a sizeable margin despite being third in the whole province. Others have a similar pattern although not as dramatic.

CBC's poll aggregator and seat projector - https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/onvotes/poll-tracker/ - for the Eastern Ontario region currently predicts the PCs will win 12 seats, the Liberals 4 and the NDP 2. Those 2 NDP seats are likely Ottawa Centre and Kingston & the Islands; so this would mean the Liberals would lose only 1 seat in Eastern Ontario to the PCs (likely Glengarry-Prescott-Russell or Orleans). For the province as a whole, it projects a large PC majority and the Liberals in 3rd place with a mere 10 seats.. so Ottawa would still be mostly Liberal even as the Liberals are just barely above the threshold of official party status, and Ottawa MPPs would make up half the Liberal caucus!

It would be interesting if the Liberals can hold ridings that the Tories won in the 2011 federal election (with results in Ontario similar to current polling). I tend to think they will hold Orleans, but GPR and OWN could be tough.

[rocketphish]

It's probably safe to say that this guy won't get a lot of votes


Hate crime charge hangs over Ottawa Centre candidate

Blair Crawford, Ottawa Citizen
Published on: May 10, 2018 | Last Updated: May 10, 2018 6:27 PM EDT

Twenty-five names and you’re in. Oh, and you can’t work for the government.

Aside from that, there’s not much stopping anyone from running for a seat of Queen’s Park, even if you were once stripped of your medical licence and have an upcoming trial for hate crimes.

All those apply to James Sears, candidate in Ottawa Centre who bills himself as “Canada’s biggest troll.”

Sears, 54, is editor of the Toronto newsletter Your Ward News a quarterly publication that has been described as “racist” and a “hate rag” by its critics. Sears chose the riding as a way to confront Yasir Naqvi, who was attorney general in November when Sears and Your Ward News publisher, Leroy St. Germaine, 76, were charged with wilfully promoting hatred against women and Jews.

Sears said Thursday that he chose to run in Ottawa Centre, specifically to confront Naqvi and work against his re-election.

Sears is one of six candidates running in Ottawa Centre and running for the CCP — Canadians’ Choice Party — which has two candidates in the election. In all, 15 parties are fielding candidates in the election while 15 more people are running as independents.

There are a few rules for candidates: They must be 18 or older on election day, a Canadian citizen and have lived in Ontario for six months. They must not be disqualified under the Legislative Assembly Act, for which the major hurdle is to not be an MP, Senator or government employee.

To be nominated they need valid signatures from 25 residents of the riding in which they intend to run. There is no registration fee. The deadline to register is May 17.

Sears has run in past federal and municipal elections and says he intends to run for mayor of Toronto in October’s municipal election. In a rambling “letter to constituents” on his website, Sears describes himself as “an aggressive advocate for the Christian patriarchy, promoting male masculinity by educating the public on the New World Order’s agenda of chemically and psychologically castrating Western men, turning many into treasonous Soviet lackeys.”

In addition to the hate crime charge, Sears also faces a charge of uttering threats because of an article he published in Your Ward News about Lisa and Warren Kinsella, who have called the publication a “neo-Nazi rag” and led a campaign to stop it from being delivered by Canada Post.

http://ottawacitizen.com/news/local-news/hate-crime-charge-hangs-over-ottawa-centre-candidate

[acottawa]

25 signatures seems like too low of a bar.

Also, when did they get rid of the registration fee?

[roger1818]

Personally I think the Carleton District should be interesting (even ignoring the fact that I live in it). It is a new riding created from parts of Nepean—Carleton, Carleton—Mississippi Mills, and Ottawa South, most of which were PC strongholds.

However, the Liberal candidate is Theresa Qadri (Councillor Shad Qadri's wife) so has a well known name.

The PC candidate (Goldie Ghamari) is largely unknown, but she has been pushing hard to get her name out there.

Grab the popcorn. Should be quite the show. :)

https://stittsvillecentral.ca/wp-content/uploads/017CarletonAtlasMap-1-980x800.png

[1overcosc]

In a more typical election, I'd say Qadri would have a strong chance despite the area's history.

[Uhuniau]

Starting to get spidey-tingles about an NDP surge...

[Paul29]

Starting to get spidey-tingles about an NDP surge...

Because they're going to outspend the liberals?

[kwoldtimer]

Because they're going to outspend the liberals?

Have the media done any detailed costings of the NDP platform (or the Liberal's for that matter)? The only element of their platform that alarms me is the 1.5% corporate tax increase. No biggie in isolation, but, depending on the outcomes of the NAFTA renegotiation, I can't think of a worse time for it. In a bad/worst case scenario, both the federal and provincial government may need to be taking radical measures to keep corporations in Ontario.

[acottawa]

Have the media done any detailed costings of the NDP platform (or the Liberal's for that matter)? The only element of their platform that alarms me is the 1.5% corporate tax increase. No biggie in isolation, but, depending on the outcomes of the NAFTA renegotiation, I can't think of a worse time for it. In a bad/worst case scenario, both the federal and provincial government may need to be taking radical measures to keep corporations in Ontario.

Sort of

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/ford-pc-not-release-costed-platform-1.4656985

All three platforms are pretty dodgy from a fiscal perspective.

[JHikka]

I've no real doubt that Naqvi will hold onto his Ottawa Centre seat. It's mostly going to be about how much support his Liberal brand bleeds. Will be interesting to see what parts of the riding gain PC/NDP/Green supporters and what affect some of the new condo/apartment buildings have.

[Jamaican-Phoenix]

Have the media done any detailed costings of the NDP platform (or the Liberal's for that matter)? The only element of their platform that alarms me is the 1.5% corporate tax increase. No biggie in isolation, but, depending on the outcomes of the NAFTA renegotiation, I can't think of a worse time for it. In a bad/worst case scenario, both the federal and provincial government may need to be taking radical measures to keep corporations in Ontario.

The NDP proposals have been costed and signed off on by a former auditor-general.

Source: https://globalnews.ca/news/4196777/tom-parkin-andrea-horwath/

[ainvan]

Wrong thread, sorry :D

[acottawa]

The NDP proposals have been costed and signed off on by a former auditor-general.

Source: https://globalnews.ca/news/4196777/tom-parkin-andrea-horwath/

That is an opinion piece written by someone from the party.

[OCCheetos]

That is an opinion piece written by someone from the party.

Being signed off by a former auditor-general isn't an opinion. (Unless you count the former auditor-general's opinion, but that opinion is relevant here.)

[acottawa]

Being signed off by a former auditor-general isn't an opinion. (Unless you count the former auditor-general's opinion, but that opinion is relevant here.)

But the person didn't link to the sign off by a former auditor general. As far as I can tell it was signed off by Kevin Page, who was never an auditor general, and he never looked at items that cost less than a billion, which isn't a thorough way of auditing.

[OCCheetos]

But the person didn't link to the sign off by a former auditor general. As far as I can tell it was signed off by Kevin Page, who was never an auditor general, and he never looked at items that cost less than a billion, which isn't a thorough way of auditing.

Well that's much more informative than "That is an opinion piece written by someone from the party.".

Hopefully we'll be able to find the signing-off that was mentioned in the piece.

[acottawa]

Well that's much more informative than "That is an opinion piece written by someone from the party.".

Hopefully we'll be able to find the signing-off that was mentioned in the piece.

That information was all contained in the CBC article I linked to earlier.

But in general opinion pieces written by people affiliated with a particular party are not good sources of information during an election campaign.

[passwordisnt123]

That information was all contained in the CBC article I linked to earlier.

But in general opinion pieces written by people affiliated with a particular party are not good sources of information during an election campaign.

Here's an alternate link in that case:

http://toronto.citynews.ca/2018/04/16/ontario-ndp-child-care/

That article wasn't written by anybody affiliated with the NDP and City News isn't an NDP-friendly outlet.

The NDP platform was analysed by former federal parliamentary budget officer Kevin Page who says its costing of individual measures is “reasonable.”

[acottawa]

Here's an alternate link in that case:

http://toronto.citynews.ca/2018/04/16/ontario-ndp-child-care/

That article wasn't written by anybody affiliated with the NDP and City News isn't an NDP-friendly outlet.

Yes, and the article successfully identifies Mr. Page as a former Parliamentary Budget Officer, rather than a former auditor general, as the more partisan piece suggested.

[Arcologist]

The provincial elections are a joke! You've got a choice between terrible, even more terrible, and beyond terrible. And they all end up in piles more debt!

[1overcosc]

Just like last time. Pick your poison.

[acottawa]

Just like last time. Pick your poison.

I think it is worse than last time. The Liberals and NDP were running fairly moderate, centrist platforms last time (and in my view a lot of the Liberals problems stem from the fact they put the platform that won the election into the wood-chipper). Now centrist voters have a choice between the Liberals and NDP fighting over the far-left or the far-right.

[Arcologist]

Kathleen Wynne has gone completely rogue into far-left territory. She's promising billions for absolutely everyone and everything -- I'm surprised she hasn't offered to pay our salaries outright!?!

I'm not sure what to think of Horwath, and Doug Ford is... well, Doug Ford.

No matter who wins, one thing is certain: Ontario is doomed.

:titanic:

[1overcosc]

I think it is worse than last time. The Liberals and NDP were running fairly moderate, centrist platforms last time (and in my view a lot of the Liberals problems stem from the fact they put the platform that won the election into the wood-chipper). Now centrist voters have a choice between the Liberals and NDP fighting over the far-left or the far-right.

It's not so much that the Liberals put their 2014 platform in the wood-chipper (they pretty much did everything they said they would do) it's more that they added a whole bunch of extra stuff they didn't campaign on. Almost all of the signature initiatives they're now bragging about weren't mentioned in 2014 at all (free tuition for low income families, extensive minimum wage hike & labour law reform, OHIP+, etc.).

Ironically, I think if the NDP were running their 2014 platform this time, they'd be a shoe in for victory.

[acottawa]

It's not so much that the Liberals put their 2014 platform in the wood-chipper (they pretty much did everything they said they would do) it's more that they added a whole bunch of extra stuff they didn't campaign on. Almost all of the signature initiatives they're now bragging about weren't mentioned in 2014 at all (free tuition for low income families, extensive minimum wage hike & labour law reform, OHIP+, etc.).

Ironically, I think if the NDP were running their 2014 platform this time, they'd be a shoe in for victory.

I agree with you that they added a whole lot of new promises late in their mandate (which rubs a lot of voters the wrong way). But they also backtracked or fudged a lot of promises.


They promised to increase minimum wage to $11 and then link to inflation, instead they increased it to $14.
They promised to balance the budget by 17-18, and then went right off the deep end.
They didn't mention anything about hydro privatization.
They promised to freeze salaries of MPPs, senior managers, etc. and didn't.
They promised to reduce the number of government agencies by 30 percent (I can't figure out if they kept that one or not, but I kind of doubt it).
They promised to lower auto insurance by 15% and didn't.
They promised a whole bunch of infrastructure that didn't happen.


Nobody expects any party of keep all of their promises, but they expect they to follow a general theme. They ran as centrists in 2014 and tried to re-brand on the far left mid-mandate. Politically it makes not sense. Logically it makes no sense. They only thing I can think is that they were unable to make hard political decisions to bring the budget under control so responded by totally shifting gear, which I don't think will go down in history as a good strategy.

[acottawa]

My list didn't work very well.

[roger1818]

My list didn't work very well.

You need to prefix each line with " "

Edit the post, remove the list start and stop codes, select what you want listed, and click the list button. It will then do it for you.

[acottawa]

You need to prefix each line with " "

Edit the post, remove the list start and stop codes, select what you want listed, and click the list button. It will then do it for you.

Thanks

[acottawa]

CBC poll tracker was updated yesterday. Not looking good for the Liberals.

https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/onvotes/poll-tracker/

[1overcosc]

2 seats, 1 in East (almost certainly Ottawa-Vanier) and 1 in Toronto (St. Paul's?).

Also, wow.. NDP up to 37 with error range up to 48. Interesting that even at the top of their confidence interval which places them at 48 seats they still have just 2 in Eastern Ontario, likely Ottawa Centre and Kingston. What would their 2nd Ottawa seat be if their surge continues? OWN?

[acottawa]

2 seats, 1 in East (almost certainly Ottawa-Vanier) and 1 in Toronto (St. Paul's?).

Also, wow.. NDP up to 37 with error range up to 48. Interesting that even at the top of their confidence interval which places them at 48 seats they still have just 2 in Eastern Ontario, likely Ottawa Centre and Kingston. What would their 2nd Ottawa seat be if their surge continues? OWN?

I don't see a second seat for the NDP in the Ottawa area. Even in 1990, when they won a majority, they still only won one seat in the Ottawa area.

[YOWetal]

2 seats, 1 in East (almost certainly Ottawa-Vanier) and 1 in Toronto (St. Paul's?).

Also, wow.. NDP up to 37 with error range up to 48. Interesting that even at the top of their confidence interval which places them at 48 seats they still have just 2 in Eastern Ontario, likely Ottawa Centre and Kingston. What would their 2nd Ottawa seat be if their surge continues? OWN?

The model might say those two but it would likely be harder to predict. In 2011 federal election they got 25% in Ontario which translated into 11 seats. Some of which were won by well known candidates in less liberal friendly ridings. I don't know who provincially could punch above their weight. Probably Kathleen Wynn herself? Maybe some former mayors.

I can't see the NDP actually going much higher. As soon as their poll results threaten to form a government the right flank of the Liberals might peel off to the PCs. This is one factor in 2011 results. Granted Ford is a different beast but like educated suburban Trump voters they might expect the PC party to keep him in check.

[Truenorth00]

The PCs look set for an outsized victory thanks to vote splitting on the left.

[acottawa]

The model might say those two but it would likely be harder to predict. In 2011 federal election they got 25% in Ontario which translated into 11 seats. Some of which were won by well known candidates in less liberal friendly ridings. I don't know who provincially could punch above their weight. Probably Kathleen Wynn herself? Maybe some former mayors.



I'm not sure we're in 2011 territory anymore. In that election the NDP and Liberals basically tied at 25% (but the NDP got more seats). Current polling has the NDP in the 30 range and the liberals in the low 20s. If that is correct (and we all know polling isn't as accurate as it used to be) then the Liberals would have a hard time keeping the 416 ridings and small cities like Kingston and Guelph they held in 2011.

I think you're right that a prominent local politician can buck an overall collapse (as Elsie Wayne and Jean Charest did in the Tory collapse of 1993), but Team Wynne is lacking in star candidates.

[1overcosc]

I can't see the NDP actually going much higher. As soon as their poll results threaten to form a government the right flank of the Liberals might peel off to the PCs. This is one factor in 2011 results. Granted Ford is a different beast but like educated suburban Trump voters they might expect the PC party to keep him in check.

That part of the Liberal voter base has already left. I don't think the PCs can take much more from the Liberals. Whether or not the NDP or PCs win the election largely depends on how much more the NDP can take from the Liberals, IMO. Is the Liberal "floor" at 20%, or 10%? If it's the former, we'll end up with a PC majority with a strong NDP opposition, if it's the latter, we'll have Premier Horwath.

The math and the conventional wisdom say the Liberal floor is very low due to how bit-shit scared progressives are of Ford, but I have a hard time seeing the OLP drop into the teens.

[1overcosc]

Some amazing soul did the number crunching and redistributed the 2014 provincial elections onto the 2018 riding borders; the numbers for reach riding are posted on the http://www.electionprediction.org/2018_on/index.php site.

One thing that stands out. In Ottawa's western suburban seats, the federal Liberals did WAY better in 2015 than their provincial cousins did in 2014, by nearly 20 points:

Nepean: 36% for Wynne Liberals in 2014; 52% for Trudeau Liberals in 2015
Carleton: 28% for Wynne Liberals in 2014; 44% for Trudeau Liberals in 2015
Kanata-Carleton: 33% for Wynne Liberals in 2014; 51% for Trudeau Liberals in 2015

Even with redistribution, MacLaren won by 12 points in 2014; just 16 months later, the federal Conservative lost the same riding by 12 points.

In the rest of Ottawa, the 2014 Wynne Liberal and 2015 Trudeau Liberal numbers are fairly similar.

[acottawa]

Latest Ipsos poll shows the NDP with a slight lead.

https://globalnews.ca/news/4222975/ontario-election-pcs-ndp-tied-ipsos-poll/

I tend to think this still points to a Tory majority. With Ford leading in the 416 (something that never happens for the Tories) and the NDP starting from so far back in Eastern and Central Ontario it will be very difficult for them to pick up enough seats. And with the Liberals running last in every region, the chances of a minority government (of any type) are pretty low.

[lrt's friend]

What is driving the public's dislike for Kathleen Wynne? I have not figured this out.

[acottawa]

What is driving the public's dislike for Kathleen Wynne? I have not figured this out.

This is just my opinion, but I think it is the huge shifts on policy. There is more of an ideological difference between the different iterations of Kathleen Wynne than there is between the three parties. If someone is a centrist then they feel betrayed that Wynne won the 2014 election on a centrist platform and then veered sharply to the left. If someone is a leftist they are suspicious of her deathbed conversion. Politicians sometimes get away with a major shift like (Jean Chrétien comes to mind) but such a successful shift is usually accompanied by some sort of narrative (such as concern about the deficit during the Chrétien era) but with Wynne there has been no explanation.

[SkeggsEggs]

My guess, most people don't follow or care about provincial politics. They just go by what they see in the news or read in the paper. Most of that has been overwhelmingly negative since the second she was elected.

Aside from issues with Hydro, Ontario seems to be in a very good position.

[acottawa]

Aside from issues with Hydro, Ontario seems to be in a very good position.

Hydro is a pretty big one. Out of all the things to screw up, they picked something voters are reminded about on a monthly basis.

The province's fiscal situation is a pretty obvious failure as well.

[HighwayStar]

What is driving the public's dislike for Kathleen Wynne? I have not figured this out.

Just my opinion, but she appears to be the textbook definition of what is wrong with democracy.
- Beholdin' to financial benefactors (Teachers, PS Unions in general, Global Breweries, etc) with minimal apparent concern for anyone else.
- Surrounded herself with advisers (i.e. Butts) whose SOLE purpose is to win the next election, with little regard to "doing the right thing" and showing leadership on difficult files.
- continual deficit spending and misrepresentation of annual budget(s)
- willingness to stick our kids/grandkids with the Hydro bill for her own short term political gain.
- Only negative attack ads

That said... I'm sure many other politicians would do the same thing (incl Ford and Horwath)... however the problem with KW is it's just simply a performance record that one cannot brag about. As I mention in the first sentence, this is more of a failure in the way democracy works, rather than anything special about her.

Canada seems to loath almost all former politicians... this is just another example of someone who is well past her prime.

:runaway:

[lrt's friend]

Hydro is a pretty big one. Out of all the things to screw up, they picked something voters are reminded about on a monthly basis.

The province's fiscal situation is a pretty obvious failure as well.

How is Hydro a major screw up? It seems to me that what happened as far as pricing was inevitable if we wanted a greener and more reliable hydro system. Remember the massive 2003 black out. The other parties do not really offer anything better on this front. The sell off of Hydro is helping fund infrastructure improvements.

The Ontario economy is also doing extremely well.

The problem with the deficit is because of heavy investment in infrastructure. How do the other parties provide a better option? How do tax cuts allow us to invest in infrastructure? This all seems to go back to the days of Mike Harris who cut taxes massively and shrank the tax base. He certainly did not invest much in infrastructure.

[1overcosc]

What is driving the public's dislike for Kathleen Wynne? I have not figured this out.

I've been a little confused by that too so I ask that question a lot. And generally I find everyone gives different answers.

I think this is part of the difficulty in uniting opposition to her government in one camp; there isn't a single narrative or driving force behind her unpopularity. Rather a bunch of things with every type of Ontarian having their own list.

This is just my opinion, but I think it is the huge shifts on policy. There is more of an ideological difference between the different iterations of Kathleen Wynne than there is between the three parties. If someone is a centrist then they feel betrayed that Wynne won the 2014 election on a centrist platform and then veered sharply to the left. If someone is a leftist they are suspicious of her deathbed conversion. Politicians sometimes get away with a major shift like (Jean Chrétien comes to mind) but such a successful shift is usually accompanied by some sort of narrative (such as concern about the deficit during the Chrétien era) but with Wynne there has been no explanation.

This is the best one-paragraph explanation one can give, I think. Every part of the spectrum has felt betrayed by her in some way shape or form, and for different reasons.

As for hydro, every government since the 1970s has mismanaged the file, IMO, and Wynne has mostly just inherited the storm that all of her predecessors have spent the past 40 years brewing up: the overeliance on expensive-to-maintain nuclear (Davis mostly), the use of deferred capital spending to balance the budget (everyone), the inefficient restructuring of the hydro system into a bunch of different chunks (under Harris), and overspending on green energy (McGuinty). All these mistakes coalesced into a disastrous system by Wynne's time.

Wynne hasn't managed the storm well either; the deferred capital spending scheme while reducing costs now will ultimately cost more in the end. But the storm isn't really her making.

[acottawa]

How is Hydro a major screw up? It seems to me that what happened as far as pricing was inevitable if we wanted a greener and more reliable hydro system. Remember the massive 2003 black out. The other parties do not really offer anything better on this front. The sell off of Hydro is helping fund infrastructure improvements.



I agree that some of the costs went to improving the hydro system, but beyond that:

There was a policy decision to dump a lot of non-hydro costs (industrial subsidies, general infrastructure) onto hydro ratepayers. This is not a general best practice in managing public utilities. These costs should have gone directly onto the provincial balance sheet.

There is a massive glut of power in the province. There is an installed capacity of 36,945 MW. The highest power consumption ever on Ontario (and that was in 2006) was 27,005 MW. Producing a surplus of electricity might make sense if it could be sold to other jurisdictions at a profit, but most of the surplus power is being sold far below cost.

And of course, the badly bungled gas plant cancellation.



The Ontario economy is also doing extremely well.



So is the American economy. Should we give Trump credit for this?



The problem with the deficit is because of heavy investment in infrastructure. How do the other parties provide a better option? How do tax cuts allow us to invest in infrastructure? This all seems to go back to the days of Mike Harris who cut taxes massively and shrank the tax base. He certainly did not invest much in infrastructure.

Infrastructure is less than 10% of the province's budget. About the same as the interest costs.

[1overcosc]

Latest Ipsos poll shows the NDP with a slight lead.

https://globalnews.ca/news/4222975/ontario-election-pcs-ndp-tied-ipsos-poll/

I tend to think this still points to a Tory majority. With Ford leading in the 416 (something that never happens for the Tories) and the NDP starting from so far back in Eastern and Central Ontario it will be very difficult for them to pick up enough seats. And with the Liberals running last in every region, the chances of a minority government (of any type) are pretty low.

We're in completely unknown territory. Swing models break down entirely once third parties shift to front runner status, because when this happens it means a third party has acquired new chunks of support it's never had before, whereas swing models only calculate changes in already existing support bases. It's almost impossible to predict how the seats will line up. I do tend to think that the PCs are going to have more efficient distribution regardless so the NDP need at least 2-3 points of a lead to actually win though.

What I find interesting is how firm the Liberal floor is. It's been clear for weeks now that the Liberals are in third and that anyone who wants to stop Ford should vote NDP. Yet strategic voting hasn't really manifested that much, the Liberals are still firmly holding onto that 22%-23% or so of the vote in every poll. The NDP have continued to gain since the Liberals have dropped to the low 20s, but those gains have actually come at the expense of the PCs.

[YOWetal]

We're in completely unknown territory. Swing models break down entirely once third parties shift to front runner status, because when this happens it means a third party has acquired new chunks of support it's never had before, whereas swing models only calculate changes in already existing support bases. It's almost impossible to predict how the seats will line up. I do tend to think that the PCs are going to have more efficient distribution regardless so the NDP need at least 2-3 points of a lead to actually win though.

What I find interesting is how firm the Liberal floor is. It's been clear for weeks now that the Liberals are in third and that anyone who wants to stop Ford should vote NDP. Yet strategic voting hasn't really manifested that much, the Liberals are still firmly holding onto that 22%-23% or so of the vote in every poll. The NDP have continued to gain since the Liberals have dropped to the low 20s, but those gains have actually come at the expense of the PCs.

Some of this is party loyalty but there are also committed centrists. Who do they vote for this cycle? Many are low information voters and voting for Ford already. Some know the extreme positions of both NDP and PC in this election so will stick with Liberals even though they may know this is a wasted vote.

[acottawa]

We're in completely unknown territory. Swing models break down entirely once third parties shift to front runner status, because when this happens it means a third party has acquired new chunks of support it's never had before, whereas swing models only calculate changes in already existing support bases. It's almost impossible to predict how the seats will line up. I do tend to think that the PCs are going to have more efficient distribution regardless so the NDP need at least 2-3 points of a lead to actually win though.



That's a good point. I just have a hard time seeing an NDP path to victory. Based on current polling I would expect them to run the table north of the French River, in urban SW Ontario and Hamilton/Niagara. After that the list gets pretty short: York/East York, some of the larger centres in Eastern Ontario (Kingston and Peterborough) maybe Scarborough (although Ford is strong there), maybe Ottawa Centre, maybe Brampton. That isn't enough to win an election. Unless the Liberal vote completely collapses (and as you said, the Liberals seem to have found their floor) then further gains in Ottawa or Old Toronto are unlikely. Otherwise they have to start taking rural and suburban ridings from the Tories. Hard to see that happening without a major drop in Tory support.

The last (well, only) time the NDP won, the distribution of ridings was a lot different. NDP strongholds like Hamilton/Niagara, SW Ontario, Northern Ontario had a lot more seats, while the 905 had fewer.

[1overcosc]

Further NDP gains in Ottawa beyond Ottawa Centre would require a situation where the Liberal vote drops considerably in favour of the NDP vote and PC vote remains steady or barely increases; this would turn Ottawa West-Nepean and Ottawa South into 3 way races.

[1overcosc]

CBC polltracker has been updated. NDP have moved up to 44 seats, with their confidence range going from 30 to 59.

In Eastern Ontario, they're now projected at 3. Aside from Ottawa Centre and Kingston, the 3rd is likely Peterborough (Peterborough is counted as Eastern by CBC), but at the top of the confidence interval (the scenario where the NDP get 59 seats provincewide), they're at 6 in Eastern Ontario. Not sure where those extra 3 are, but some would have to be in Ottawa. So at least the swing models are putting the possibility of more Ottawa seats being in play for Horwath.

[ssiguy]

The NDP gains were originally tied to Liberal loses with little effect on Tory support but this is starting to change. Many people who wouldn`t have thought twice about voting Tory under Brown or Elliot are very leery of Ford both personally and policy wise.

He is also hurting himself by not coming out with a solid policy platform or how be is going to balance the books with his huge tax cuts but still promising no cuts to service, the civil service, and continuing with the large Liberal infrastructure programs. Now those crucial non-decided voters are doing what everyone thought they would........lining up with the party that has the best chance of beating Ford. They were waiting to see if that would be the Liberals or NDP but now that question has been answered. It is far better that it is the NDP as Horvath is far more liked than Wynne and the NDP offers a change from the tired and corrupt Liberals. This means that those undecided voters are more likely to vote as opposed to if the Liberals were leading as many couldn`t stomach the idea of voting for either Wynne or Ford and so may have simply stayed home.

[YOWetal]

That's a good point. I just have a hard time seeing an NDP path to victory. Based on current polling I would expect them to run the table north of the French River, in urban SW Ontario and Hamilton/Niagara. After that the list gets pretty short: York/East York, some of the larger centres in Eastern Ontario (Kingston and Peterborough) maybe Scarborough (although Ford is strong there), maybe Ottawa Centre, maybe Brampton. That isn't enough to win an election. Unless the Liberal vote completely collapses (and as you said, the Liberals seem to have found their floor) then further gains in Ottawa or Old Toronto are unlikely. Otherwise they have to start taking rural and suburban ridings from the Tories. Hard to see that happening without a major drop in Tory support.

The last (well, only) time the NDP won, the distribution of ridings was a lot different. NDP strongholds like Hamilton/Niagara, SW Ontario, Northern Ontario had a lot more seats, while the 905 had fewer.

I would think they need to sweep 905 to form a majority government. That ipsos poll shows them leading in 905 by a few points so it's not impossible especially with a further Liberal drop. Still it must be 10-1 that the PCs form a majority.

[acottawa]

I would think they need to sweep 905 to form a majority government. That ipsos poll shows them leading in 905 by a few points so it's not impossible especially with a further Liberal drop. Still it must be 10-1 that the PCs form a majority.

I agree they would need to sweep the 905, but I suspect a lot of that 905 support is in areas where the NDP already holds seats (Hamilton, Niagara Region, Oshawa and Brampton).

The obvious place for the NDP to make inroads would be the 416, but with Ford leading there there will be few opportunities outside of the downtown core (and maybe Scarborough).

[1overcosc]

If the NDP top 40% in the 905s they're in, I think. That's thr point at which their support will have to be diffused and they'll start racking up gains all over

[1overcosc]

Another poll came out today, this time by Pollara. NDP 38%, PC 37%, Liberal 18%. That's three different polls by three different companies since the long weekend that have come out and put the NDP and PCs tied for 1st. So the NDP surge is definitely real at this point and not a fluke.

This poll subdivided the GTA regions and put the NDP in 1st place in Peel-Halton region. That definitely means the NDP are likely going to sweep Brampton and win a few seats in Mississauga.

[acottawa]

CBC updated their poll tracker. Liberals are down to two seats, both in Eastern Ontario (I assume Ottawa Vanier and Ottawa South).

Tories still have a majority, but the NDP would have a pretty large caucus, but still only 3 seats in Eastern Ontario.

[kwoldtimer]

CBC updated their poll tracker. Liberals are down to two seats, both in Eastern Ontario (I assume Ottawa Vanier and Ottawa South).

Tories still have a majority, but the NDP would have a pretty large caucus, but still only 3 seats in Eastern Ontario.

It will be interesting in coming days to see how/if today's allegation against DoFo affect the momentum of the polls.

[1overcosc]

It seems nothing can break the NDP momentum.

The PC campaign is completely rudderless as they have no idea how to fight the NDP. Everything about their campaign was designed to fight the Liberals and all the stuff they prepared doesn't work on the NDP.

Criticisms about controversial candidates, the fiscal mistake in the platform, and overall policy objectives are all falling flat, I think because the other parties are both so shitty that nobody can take their criticisms seriously. (ie. nobody can take Wynne seriously when she criticizes the NDP about fiscal responsibility, nobody can take Ford seriously when he criticizes the NDP about controversial candidates, etc.).

[acottawa]

The PC campaign is completely rudderless as they have no idea how to fight the NDP. Everything about their campaign was designed to fight the Liberals and all the stuff they prepared doesn't work on the NDP.



They don't particularly need to fight the NDP. Any successful attacks would be more likely to push support back to the liberals which could hurt their strongholds. They have a lead in the 416, they have a lead in the 905 and they have a huge lead in Eastern Ontario. They can still lose SW and Northern Ontario and win a majority.

[lrt's friend]

I don't understand Doug Ford's appeal. The PCs still have not released their full platform. I guess they expect to just fall into office and that appears to be a real possibility. If the electorate is satisfied to vote for a party that does not have a coherent platform, they deserve what they will get, which is, who knows what. I am prepared to vote PC if I really understood what I was voting for.

A plan that cuts income taxes, business taxes, carbon taxes, reduces expenses without cutting staff and spends more on a wide range of items does not add up. I guess I am just plain stupid for not understanding how this makes any sense.

[1overcosc]

I don't understand Doug Ford's appeal. The PCs still have not released their full platform. I guess they expect to just fall into office and that appears to be a real possibility. If the electorate is satisfied to vote for a party that does not have a coherent platform, they deserve what they will get, which is, who knows what. I am prepared to vote PC if I really understood what I was voting for.

A plan that cuts income taxes, business taxes, carbon taxes, reduces expenses without cutting staff and spends more on a wide range of items does not add up. I guess I am just plain stupid for not understanding how this makes any sense.

That's why the NDP is surging, it's because Ford has little appeal.

[acottawa]

I don't understand Doug Ford's appeal. The PCs still have not released their full platform. I guess they expect to just fall into office and that appears to be a real possibility. If the electorate is satisfied to vote for a party that does not have a coherent platform, they deserve what they will get, which is, who knows what. I am prepared to vote PC if I really understood what I was voting for.

A plan that cuts income taxes, business taxes, carbon taxes, reduces expenses without cutting staff and spends more on a wide range of items does not add up. I guess I am just plain stupid for not understanding how this makes any sense.

I don't think he is popular outside of Toronto.

In Toronto, he is a retail politician (not unlike Jim Watson) with a strong base of support.

The irony is that base of support in Toronto is pretty much blocking an NDP path to victory. A more popular leader (say Christine Elliott) would have higher poll numbers but less chance of winning.

[HighwayStar]

I don't understand Doug Ford's appeal. The PCs still have not released their full platform. I guess they expect to just fall into office and that appears to be a real possibility. If the electorate is satisfied to vote for a party that does not have a coherent platform, they deserve what they will get, which is, who knows what. I am prepared to vote PC if I really understood what I was voting for.

A plan that cuts income taxes, business taxes, carbon taxes, reduces expenses without cutting staff and spends more on a wide range of items does not add up. I guess I am just plain stupid for not understanding how this makes any sense.

The Liberals have clearly demonstrated they are financial train wrecks.

The NDP's platform is a financial train wreck.. and their support of CUPE over students shows their true ideology (i.e. PS unions uber alles).

At least with Ford, we can *hope*... and believe me it's nothing more than hope... he'll try and turn around the above financial train wrecks by doing things he hasn't stated out loud.

My disillusionment with all politicians ... and democracy in general (i.e. short term thinking only) is at an all time high.

Disruption is the best option I can think of at this time... and for the record I have no clue who I will vote for on election day.

[1overcosc]

Ford has said he will release a costed platform. So far his proposed tax cuts and spending increases far outweigh the $6B in efficiencies/cuts he's proposed so unless there's something new he hasn't said yet, his platform would put us on track towards a huge deficit, ironically probably bigger than the one the NDP proposed. We're in a very weird place...

[Kitchissippi]

Conservatives tend to amputate before thinking, and before you know it they’ll be telling you, “Oh, that was your leg? Meh, you didn’t need it anyway.“ Then the Liberals or NDP get voted in after to buy you crutches.

[1overcosc]

Early leak of tomorrow morning's EKOS poll:

https://www.thepostmillennial.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/Untitled-design-9.jpg

EDIT: EKOS president has confirmed that picture is real. Twitter is abuzz that Forum is reportedly also about to release polls putting the NDP solidly in 1st.

[YOWetal]

The Liberals have clearly demonstrated they are financial train wrecks.

The NDP's platform is a financial train wreck.. and their support of CUPE over students shows their true ideology (i.e. PS unions uber alles).

At least with Ford, we can *hope*... and believe me it's nothing more than hope... he'll try and turn around the above financial train wrecks by doing things he hasn't stated out loud.

My disillusionment with all politicians ... and democracy in general (i.e. short term thinking only) is at an all time high.

Disruption is the best option I can think of at this time... and for the record I have no clue who I will vote for on election day.

I am not sure if this was analysis or personal opinion but I think it is spot on. I haven't talked to too many people about the election, Ottawa has a weird blind spot for Provincial politics, so I don't know if others have the same thinking as I do. Personally I consider myself generally a left leaning Liberal but am considering voting PC this time. I think the party will constrain him wheras the NDP will be a repeat of 1990 with an inexperienced cabinet flailing from crisis to crisis and an exploding deficit. It also probably helps that I will benefit more from the goodies Ford is handing out than the NDP goodies.

[Paul29]

Personally I consider myself generally a left leaning Liberal but am considering voting PC this time.

I would consider if for anyone other that Ford. We just moved here from the GTA and saw Ford Nation first hand. This guy is a train wreck.



It also probably helps that I will benefit more from the goodies Ford is handing out than the NDP goodies.
So will I but I still can't vote for DoFo. Horwath's plan is to tax the highest tax bracket to pay for her incredibly expensive wish list. History has shown that doesn't work. They also blindly support (read, propped up by) unions, so I won't vote for her.

I cringe at the thought of voting Wynne. Greens are irrelevant. WTF to do....