Haliguy
May 27, 2010, 11:40 AM
N.S. to lead provinces in exports
Economist: 12% growth this year, 17% in 2011
By CHRIS LAMBIE Business Editor
Thu. May 27 - 4:53 AM
Peter Hall, chief economist for Export Development Canada (CHRISTIAN LaFORCE / Staff)
NOVA SCOTIA’S international exports are forecast to outpace all other provinces next year.
This province should see 12 per cent growth in exports this year and 17 per cent growth in 2011, according to Export Development Canada.
"What do we see inside of the crystal ball for the province here? We see good things. Nova Scotia is actually going to perform better than the national average for two years running," Peter Hall, chief economist for the federal government agency, told a crowd of several hundred people at Pier 21 in Halifax on Wednesday.
"Energy is a big part of this picture. A revival of energy prices, even though we are not optimistic about their future — as optimistic as some others — is a key part of the overall story this year. And then Deep Panuke coming into production is a big part of the story for next year, and a huge part of the reason that we see double digit growth next year."
His agency expects the province’s energy sector will grow by 21 per cent this year and 57 per cent in 2011. Hall anticipates a partial recovery in natural gas prices will be more than enough to offset the decline in production volumes from the Sable project this year. And, according to Hall, plans to start extracting coking coal from Donkin mine in 2012 will ensure continued growth for Nova Scotia’s energy exports.
A rebound in natural gas prices is not the only reason for the positive prognostication, Hall told the crowd at a lunch organized by the Greater Halifax Partnership.
"Remember that we’ve got a world economy that is coming back. That will inject new life into . . . this province’s pulp and paper industry," he said.
"And we’re seeing proof that it is coming back on stream as a result of even the state of demand that we have now. That’s only going to build into next year. The momentum is already there to realize that forecast."
The province’s wood products industry will get a boost from "what we feel is going to be a dramatic revival of U.S. housing."
Prices and volumes in the agri-food sector — which account for nearly a quarter of Nova Scotia’s exports — are expected to rise in 2011, "but it will take the regular recovery, particularly among U.S. consumers and consumers in the rest of the Western world, to actually lift that growth number up," said Hall, who is predicting it will grow by two per cent this year and eight per cent next year.
He isn’t forecasting a dramatic rebound in prices for lobster or crab, but Hall indicated Nova Scotia’s fish exports should see a modest recovery through 2011.
Hall is predicting an increase of motor vehicle sales in the U.S. will drive 13 per cent growth for Nova Scotia-made tires this year and seven per cent next year. That means Michelin should operate at full capacity starting this year, he said.
Exports from Nova Scotia plummeted by 26 per cent in 2009.
Hall painted a picture of the recession as a rickety bridge still being traversed.
"We are coming back from a very deep contraction and as long as we can get across this bridge the prospects for next year are very, very sound and among the best in the country for Nova Scotia."
( clambie@herald.ca)
‘Nova Scotia is actually going to perform better than the national average for two years running.’
Economist
PETER HALL
Economist: 12% growth this year, 17% in 2011
By CHRIS LAMBIE Business Editor
Thu. May 27 - 4:53 AM
Peter Hall, chief economist for Export Development Canada (CHRISTIAN LaFORCE / Staff)
NOVA SCOTIA’S international exports are forecast to outpace all other provinces next year.
This province should see 12 per cent growth in exports this year and 17 per cent growth in 2011, according to Export Development Canada.
"What do we see inside of the crystal ball for the province here? We see good things. Nova Scotia is actually going to perform better than the national average for two years running," Peter Hall, chief economist for the federal government agency, told a crowd of several hundred people at Pier 21 in Halifax on Wednesday.
"Energy is a big part of this picture. A revival of energy prices, even though we are not optimistic about their future — as optimistic as some others — is a key part of the overall story this year. And then Deep Panuke coming into production is a big part of the story for next year, and a huge part of the reason that we see double digit growth next year."
His agency expects the province’s energy sector will grow by 21 per cent this year and 57 per cent in 2011. Hall anticipates a partial recovery in natural gas prices will be more than enough to offset the decline in production volumes from the Sable project this year. And, according to Hall, plans to start extracting coking coal from Donkin mine in 2012 will ensure continued growth for Nova Scotia’s energy exports.
A rebound in natural gas prices is not the only reason for the positive prognostication, Hall told the crowd at a lunch organized by the Greater Halifax Partnership.
"Remember that we’ve got a world economy that is coming back. That will inject new life into . . . this province’s pulp and paper industry," he said.
"And we’re seeing proof that it is coming back on stream as a result of even the state of demand that we have now. That’s only going to build into next year. The momentum is already there to realize that forecast."
The province’s wood products industry will get a boost from "what we feel is going to be a dramatic revival of U.S. housing."
Prices and volumes in the agri-food sector — which account for nearly a quarter of Nova Scotia’s exports — are expected to rise in 2011, "but it will take the regular recovery, particularly among U.S. consumers and consumers in the rest of the Western world, to actually lift that growth number up," said Hall, who is predicting it will grow by two per cent this year and eight per cent next year.
He isn’t forecasting a dramatic rebound in prices for lobster or crab, but Hall indicated Nova Scotia’s fish exports should see a modest recovery through 2011.
Hall is predicting an increase of motor vehicle sales in the U.S. will drive 13 per cent growth for Nova Scotia-made tires this year and seven per cent next year. That means Michelin should operate at full capacity starting this year, he said.
Exports from Nova Scotia plummeted by 26 per cent in 2009.
Hall painted a picture of the recession as a rickety bridge still being traversed.
"We are coming back from a very deep contraction and as long as we can get across this bridge the prospects for next year are very, very sound and among the best in the country for Nova Scotia."
( clambie@herald.ca)
‘Nova Scotia is actually going to perform better than the national average for two years running.’
Economist
PETER HALL