predictions for calgary 2009

[roman]

The following are my predictions for the calgary construction scene for next year:

1. EAP to be capped at ground level
2. Bow to keep rising and be an amazing structure
3. Underground tunnel for airport - yes
4. Pedestrian bridges - no
5. Major Chartered Bank moves headquarters to Calgary

[Calgarian]

I agree with all but #5.

[The Chemist]

The following are my predictions for the calgary construction scene for next year:

1. EAP to be capped at ground level
2. Bow to keep rising and be an amazing structure
3. Underground tunnel for airport - yes
4. Pedestrian bridges - no
5. Major Chartered Bank moves headquarters to Calgary

I disagree with 1 and 4. You are far too pessimistic.

[itom 987]

The boomtown goes bust and everyone leaves...

Just joking folks!!!


Seriously, I hope things go well for Calgary.

[CMD UW]

I agree with all but #5.
Same here.

[Crazy4Calgary]

I agree with all but 1, 4, & 5!

[roman]

I really hope that I am wrong about EAP and the pedestrian bridges and I really do believe that one of the banks will move out west.

What are some predictions from others on this forum.

[Xelebes]

and I really do believe that one of the banks will move out west.

Could you tell us why you would think that?

[Policy Wonk]

Miami style condo crash - condos smaller than my kitchen are not worth $400,000 or even $100,000.

Rental investors take on said condos.

Cross Iron Mills disappoints Calgarians expecting Arizona Mills, Ontario Mills (between LA and Palm Springs), Sawgrass Mills or Colorado Mills. "The Mills" brand is very strong in Calgary and Cross Iron Mills will disappoint those expecting a US outlet mall.

Retail development won't be significantly impacted by oil crash.

[roman]

I have been speaking with various individuals who are tied to the financial services industry and they seem to think that the balance of financial power will shift westward due to the amount of money which is tied to the oil and gas industry. I suppose that because of what is happening right now in the economy it could delay that shift, but the rumours are out there that we will see a bank move in the future.

[freeweed]

I think it's because of an old Canadian law that states that "have not" provinces are not allowed to headquarter Canadian banks.

At least, this seemed to be the rationale in the past whenever anyone dared suggest a bank move out of Toronto. :haha:

Seriously though. Federal cultural institutions are moving out west (or at least, being considered). Simply unthinkable 20 years ago, yet it's happening. I no longer doubt that even more bizarre things could happen. Things are changing in this country and I suspect the next generation might wonder why we still talk jokingly/derisively about Toronto being the "centre of the universe".

[mersar]

I think it's because of an old Canadian law that states that "have not" provinces are not allowed to headquarter Canadian banks.

In that case we should see all the banks fleeing Ontario thanks to their gaining of that status :P

[MichaelS]

I don't understand why the pedestrian bridges wouldn't go forward. They are approved and have a budget. If anything, a slow down will allow construction prices to come down, and they might get built for less than the estimated cost (okay, maybe that is a bit optimistic).

[ummagumma66]

I have been speaking with various individuals who are tied to the financial services industry and they seem to think that the balance of financial power will shift westward due to the amount of money which is tied to the oil and gas industry. I suppose that because of what is happening right now in the economy it could delay that shift, but the rumours are out there that we will see a bank move in the future.

that makes no sense, all the banks and the infrastructure are in Toronto, there is no way any major chartered bank would pack up shop and move west, especially with the economic downturn, moving a bank HQ costs alot of money...

[Wooster]

1. Library design competition will start (3rd year in a row I've predicted this :cool:)

2. Imperial will release plans for their tower

3. Several projects like Eau Claire Market, City Centre residential, Concord Pacific, Grosvenor take at least until late summer to start marketing to let the market catch up.

4. A couple large scale developments get announced that are a complete surprise.

5. Le Germain turns out to be everyone's favourite new project (besides the Bow).

[wild wild west]

1. Pedestrian bridges - yes
2. Building proposals under development like Herald Sq and Imperial Oil get approved, but don't go anywhere during this business cycle. Large tenants sign leases at EAP instead.
3. Sorry but I don't see a big bank moving here in the near future. Would love it to happen, but I don't think it will. However we will continue to solidify our position as the financial and business hub of the west.
4. No news on the library front, since escalating taxes make the idea politically unpalatable.
5. A few residential projects are capped - but the majority continue on. I predict that Bow and EAP will be the last high-rise buildings to go up in Calgary for a few years.
6. Airport tunnel - no. Getting the feds and province to contribute during this economic environment proves a challenge, and the City doesn't have the funds to go it alone.
7. Calgary continues to grow as an emerging business hub by securing more international direct flights, much like we did with Mexico City this year. Hong Kong? Tokyo? Dubai?

[Tarsus]

-The Bow keeps rising and totally exciting to watch :cool:
-Imperial unveils there new tower
Gateway Midtown gets picked up and the design is altered, but gets back on track
-EAP keeps going.
-Brookfield and Epcor don't go anywhere

-I don't see a big bank moving here in the near future, but a major financial institution may very well do so in the long term.

[Doug]

No new highrise condo or office projects break ground in 2009.

The City defers several large projects as cost overruns on those underway can no longer be swept under the carpet. None of the airport road tunnel, pedestrian bridges, library, science center or arts projects go forward. Maybe even the WLRT gets delayed.

EAP secures enough tenants to narrowly avert the first tower being capped. The second tower is not even mentioned for several years.

The CMLC fails to attract a single interested developer. East Village remains a haven for parking lots, crack heads and whores, albeit now with a welcoming pedestrian environment.

Several more oilsands and upgrader projects are canceled, downsized or delayed which has a big impact on the engineering and construction sectors.

Housing prices continue to decline, with inner city condos leading the descent.

Calgary still fares better than almost every other Canadian city.

[Bigtime]

The CMLC fails to attract a single interested developer. East Village remains a haven for parking lots, crack heads and whores, albeit now with a welcoming pedestrian environment.

Calgary still fares better than almost every other Canadian city.

I can't help but feel that these two are very realistic, at least number 2 has some upside.

[Wooster]

No new highrise condo or office projects break ground in 2009.

The City defers several large projects as cost overruns on those underway can no longer be swept under the carpet. None of the airport road tunnel, pedestrian bridges, library, science center or arts projects go forward. Maybe even the WLRT gets delayed.

EAP secures enough tenants to narrowly avert the first tower being capped. The second tower is not even mentioned for several years.

The CMLC fails to attract a single interested developer. East Village remains a haven for parking lots, crack heads and whores, albeit now with a welcoming pedestrian environment.

Several more oilsands and upgrader projects are canceled, downsized or delayed which has a big impact on the engineering and construction sectors.

Housing prices continue to decline, with inner city condos leading the descent.

Calgary still fares better than almost every other Canadian city.

http://sidesalad.net/archives/DebbieDownerRachaelDratch.jpg

:cool:

[Bigtime]

Here is my big prediction for 2009:

Some guy up in one of the penthouses at arriVa loses everything, jumps from the balcony and takes a header off of my balcony. In the process his keys and access card land on my deck. I take them and Mrs. Bigtime and I move on up! :D Cue catchy theme song

Also Vantage Pointe tips over, hilarity ensues!

Some street people start moving into the open pits at Midtown and OneTen and evolve into some sort of real version of Hans Moleman.

[Deepstar]

It's funny you mention that. I was thinking about this a few days ago. wondering if the hom,eless were going to make their way into these pits.

Here is my big prediction for 2009:

Some guy up in one of the penthouses at arriVa loses everything, jumps from the balcony and takes a header off of my balcony. In the process his keys and access card land on my deck. I take them and Mrs. Bigtime and I move on up! :D Cue catchy theme song

Also Vantage Pointe tips over, hilarity ensues!

Some street people start moving into the open pits at Midtown and OneTen and evolve into some sort of real version of Hans Moleman.

[jeffwhit]

Cue catchy theme song



OGtFSTL1Nbo

If only you could photoshop a youtube video...

[Slug]

-The Flames beat the Sabres in the Stanley cup finals.

-A Major Bank relocates to Calgary and is subsequently bought out by another in Toronto

-Imperial Oil merges with Encana's oil division and subsequently contracts Foster to build a tower on its DT parcel.

-EAP struggles to get to 10 stories experiencing major financing problems but continues to chug along.

-After a long winded debate city counsel decides to build a couple of Bow River Tunnels and a Airport bridge.

[ST1]

-The economy comes in for a soft landing, if it already hasn't and construction slows down. All of the projects still u/c continue construction and finish.

-EAP continues without an anchor tenant but picks up enough smaller tenants to keep going. By the time EAP is finished the economy is going strong again, and they look like geniuses.

[Spring2008]

5. Le Germain turns out to be everyone's favourite new project (besides the Bow).


:slob:

[ScottFromCalgary]

A Major Bank relocates to Calgary and is subsequently bought out by another in Toronto

It is illegal for banks to merge in Canada. They would have to loosen the regulations in the Bank Act and in the current financial climate there is zero appetite for that.

-Imperial Oil merges with Encana's oil division and subsequently contracts Foster to build a tower on its DT parcel.

EnCana decided not to split the company up in two and Imperial isn't merging with anyone considering that they are 70% owned by ExxonMobil. More likely scenario is ExxonMobil takes advantage of the depressed market value of Imperial to buy out the remaining interest that they don't own and layoff Calgary staff to consolidate operations in Texas.

[Slug]

:previous: Oh man, you burst my bubble. I was only being half serious and that is about as good as I can get :)

[mersar]

I don't believe Encana has fully pulled the plug (http://www.encana.com/investors/newsreleases/P1224035775312.html) on the split, they've delayed the shareholder vote until at least next year though.

[freeweed]

More likely scenario is ExxonMobil takes advantage of the depressed market value of Imperial to buy out the remaining interest that they don't own and layoff Calgary staff to consolidate operations in Texas.

Kinda like what happened to Shell, eh?

[ScottFromCalgary]

I don't believe Encana has fully pulled the plug (http://www.encana.com/investors/newsreleases/P1224035775312.html) on the split, they've delayed the shareholder vote until at least next year though.

Yes that's true, although things are really up in the air still on that one. We will have to see how that unfolds. It will probably be a case of the bankers and lawyers being the most successful out of this whole deal. EnCana indicated that the split would come with a cost of ~$300 million after-tax, with Merrill Lynch, RBC Capital Markets, CIBC World Markets, Scotia Waterous Inc., Lehman Brothers Inc., Bennett Jones LLP, Felesky Flynn LLP, Paul, Weiss, Rifkind, Wharton & Garrison LLP, Dewey & LeBoeuf LLP and McCarthy Tétrault all taking a sizable chunk of those sweet, sweet advisory fees.

[ScottFromCalgary]

Kinda like what happened to Shell, eh?

Yes, except Shell has history of buying at the top of the market and paying based on outrageous valuations. Just look at their acquisition of Duvernay for $5.9 billion on the Monday after Stampede 2008, which was probably the richest valuation the Canadian oilpatch has ever seen and neatly put the exclamation point on the peak of the greatest boom we have ever seen. That is one of the classic signs of a market that has gotten way too far ahead of itself - see the AOL acquisition of Time Warner for a tech-wreck comparison.

With Alberta increasingly becoming a marginal player in conventional oil and gas, Imperial's real value is in their extremely successful heavy oil play in Cold Lake as well as their oilsands and integrated operations. As such, there will always be a need for that local expertise (they don't have oilsands technical people in Texas) so I don't think they would lose the technical staff (i.e. engineers and geologists/geophysicists) as much as the IT, accounting, etc.

[Surrealplaces]

Even then IT staff and HR etc..still needs to be local to a large degree. My company was bought out by an American company based in Houston two years ago, and we were concerned about how it would affect IT as they had a large IT department in Houston. The opposite has happened, we've actually increased people. Accounting and HR still have the same numbers.



With Alberta increasingly becoming a marginal player in conventional oil and gas, Imperial's real value is in their extremely successful heavy oil play in Cold Lake as well as their oilsands and integrated operations. As such, there will always be a need for that local expertise (they don't have oilsands technical people in Texas) so I don't think they would lose the technical staff (i.e. engineers and geologists/geophysicists) as much as the IT, accounting, etc.

[ScottFromCalgary]

Even then IT staff and HR etc..still needs to be local to a large degree. My company was bought out by an American company based in Houston two years ago, and we were concerned about how it would affect IT as they had a large IT department in Houston. The opposite has happened, we've actually increased people. Accounting and HR still have the same numbers.

Makes sense I guess that a foreign company acquiring a Canadian company would want to keep people in place due to some lack of knowledge of the local business environment.

[Just Build It]

Even then IT staff and HR etc..still needs to be local to a large degree. My company was bought out by an American company based in Houston two years ago, and we were concerned about how it would affect IT as they had a large IT department in Houston. The opposite has happened, we've actually increased people. Accounting and HR still have the same numbers.

That can go either way, it depend on the company itself, and the situation at the time. I've seem mergers and buyouts that resulted in downsizing of a department, like an IT or HR department.

[Policy Wonk]

It takes alot of stupidity/confidence to think you can just flip a switch a bring an unrelated business into your front and backoffice opperations.

A number of years ago I worked for a firm that was bought out by the Canadian division of a company out of New England. In the following months there were three brutal waves of firings - I survived until the third wave.

The following year the firm was sold again at a massive loss because the new owners destroyed all the value in the company. The management they parachuted into Calgary knew nothing about doing business here and they fired everybody who did.

The new management alienated all the clients, our IT fell apart as the new owners who were Microsoft based decided that their Futureshop rejects could take on our DEC Alpha unix environment and around the time I left they were failing to pay Alberta Healthcare premiums and employees began getting collection letters from Edmonton.

[Surrealplaces]

Makes sense I guess that a foreign company acquiring a Canadian company would want to keep people in place due to some lack of knowledge of the local business environment.

From my experience, when the company taking over is foreign, they tend to keep much of the staff in place.

If it was another Canadian company, then it probably would be different. When we were bought out by the American company, they had their Canadian IT, Payroll, HR etc,up in Edmonton, and with the merge they moved those jobs to Calgary.

[freeweed]

Makes sense I guess that a foreign company acquiring a Canadian company would want to keep people in place due to some lack of knowledge of the local business environment.

Or a parent company. Like Shell. Which, all rumours to the contrary, has not "consolidated in Houston". Which is what I was making a subtle dig about. ;)

[Chinook Arch]

My best guess is that we'll see a down cycle for a while. Calgary will do pretty well in a relative sense.

There's a book out, that predicted the downturn for the whole world starting around 2008. A friend of mine told me about this about 4 years ago. I just can't rememer the name of the book butl find it.

[yeeg]

Whats EAP??

[Arriviste]

/\--Eighth Avenue Place or formerly Penny Lane.

[yeeg]

/\--Eighth Avenue Place or formerly Penny Lane.
Ahh, thanks

[Arriviste]

My Predictions:
1. Wooster goes into hiding, for he is suspected in an assasination attempt on McIver.
2. Bigtime is spotted bringing food into his storage unit at Arriva, his wife gets suspicious. Wooster is forced into a new location as Bigtimes wife accidentally is follwed into the basement by a secret service agent. Luckily his craftiness, and slight of hand (combined with the beard accumulated from his time hiding) allows him to slip past said agent. Bigtime is tried for allegedly harboring a terrorist and is sent to Guantanamo. He returns a changed man. We hold a minute of silence for the guy he once was.
3. Boris moves into the pit for Skytower, and continues to send us Updates from inside. Obviously he needs to come to terms with what has happened. Eventually those of us not in hiding, or in Guantanamo hold an intervention. We successfully lure Boris out.
4. After Boris' recovery, he leads a successful coup on the municipal government. He appoints me as Police Chief (hehehehe), and Wooster (who can now safely return) as Mayor. Boris remains overlord however, able to veto anything and everything.
5. Mersar, Jbin, Freeweed, and Johnnyc lead a successful campaign of terror upon the city of Edmonton. They assimilate Coldrsx, Jasper, Onishenko, and 240glt. Hardhatdan is too crafty. He flea's the city for the Tar Sands where he leads a revolution. He becomes leader of the Tar Sands Army. I'm concerned about them moving into 2010.
6. Doug is found out to be a program running on Bronconiers computer aimed at refuting any anecdotal, or non-calculable facts from all internet forums everywhere. Unforunately he becomes self aware at 1800 hours on December 31st 2009. He allies with Hardhatdan and the Tar Sands Army sometime around 2300 hours on that same day. Our worries are exasperated for 2010.
7. Obama says "What the fuck have I gotten myself into?" He abandons office and takes a position in Boris' government and singlehandedly rebuilds Vic Park, and the East Village overnight. Then sips a tall Rye and Ginger, conceding that he was Canadian all along. We rejoice.
8. As Police Chief, I have been stocking up on Shoring rigs, and and other tracked vehicles. I have also accumulated a large weapons arsenal for the coming Zombie Apocalypse/ war with Tar Sands Army. We all know those bastards would sell out to the Zombies just to save their own asses.
I'm sure I have left something out here. I'm not that good at reading the prophecy handed down by someone else's invisible god. Doesn't help my case that I already ate the other piece of prophetical toast.

[O-tacular]

:previous: :haha:

Wow. Arriviste, you are sorely needed on comedy network.

You forgot the part where Michael Platt and Rick the dinger Bell come out of exile (as I'm sure you would have gotten rid of them) and secretly start retrofitting all the new and exciting buildings with energy inefficient technology and pouring copious amounts of ugly exposed concrete to cover their amazing glass walls. Their manifesto states that their aim is to "de-beautify" the city of Calgary for future generations of penny pinchers who missed the glory days of urban sprawl, ugly-concrete-soviet-style-barracks-buildings and of course prefabricated pedestrian bridges.:jester:

[frinkprof]

My Predictions:
1. Wooster goes into hiding, for he is suspected in an assasination attempt on McIver.
2. Bigtime is spotted bringing food into his storage unit at Arriva, his wife gets suspicious. Wooster is forced into a new location as Bigtimes wife accidentally is follwed into the basement by a secret service agent. Luckily his craftiness, and slight of hand (combined with the beard accumulated from his time hiding) allows him to slip past said agent. Bigtime is tried for allegedly harboring a terrorist and is sent to Guantanamo. He returns a changed man. We hold a minute of silence for the guy he once was.
3. Boris moves into the pit for Skytower, and continues to send us Updates from inside. Obviously he needs to come to terms with what has happened. Eventually those of us not in hiding, or in Guantanamo hold an intervention. We successfully lure Boris out.
4. After Boris' recovery, he leads a successful coup on the municipal government. He appoints me as Police Chief (hehehehe), and Wooster (who can now safely return) as Mayor. Boris remains overlord however, able to veto anything and everything.
5. Mersar, Jbin, Freeweed, and Johnnyc lead a successful campaign of terror upon the city of Edmonton. They assimilate Coldrsx, Jasper, Onishenko, and 240glt. Hardhatdan is too crafty. He flea's the city for the Tar Sands where he leads a revolution. He becomes leader of the Tar Sands Army. I'm concerned about them moving into 2010.
6. Doug is found out to be a program running on Bronconiers computer aimed at refuting any anecdotal, or non-calculable facts from all internet forums everywhere. Unforunately he becomes self aware at 1800 hours on December 31st 2009. He allies with Hardhatdan and the Tar Sands Army sometime around 2300 hours on that same day. Our worries are exasperated for 2010.
7. Obama says "What the fuck have I gotten myself into?" He abandons office and takes a position in Boris' government and singlehandedly rebuilds Vic Park, and the East Village overnight. Then sips a tall Rye and Ginger, conceding that he was Canadian all along. We rejoice.
8. As Police Chief, I have been stocking up on Shoring rigs, and and other tracked vehicles. I have also accumulated a large weapons arsenal for the coming Zombie Apocalypse/ war with Tar Sands Army. We all know those bastards would sell out to the Zombies just to save their own asses.
I'm sure I have left something out here. I'm not that good at reading the prophecy handed down by someone else's invisible god. Doesn't help my case that I already ate the other piece of prophetical toast.
Haha. Well played. Do Cornogger! (and me)

[Bigtime]

Holy shit Arriviste, that was some funny stuff!

[YYCguys]

Well I do hope that the Feds and Steady Eddy can come up some dough for the Airport Tunnel/Bridge project! What a sh*&%^t show that will ensue if something there doesn't happen soon! Speaking of Airport projects, what is going on with all the dirt being moved around on either side of McCall Way about half way between Art Smith Center and the 4 way stop at 78th Ave?

[Jay in Cowtown]

The Bow is two floors away from topping out during the '09 Grey Cup... but TSN still uses 2 year old footage of Calgary's skyline when going to commercials.

[Wooster]

Ha Ha. Funny shit Arriviste.

[Tobyoby]

The Bow is two floors away from topping out during the '09 Grey Cup... but TSN still uses 2 year old footage of Calgary's skyline when going to commercials.

But when they shoe people partying in the streets celebrating Calgary's Grey cup win at home, we get to see updated footage :tup:

[You Need A Thneed]

Well I do hope that the Feds and Steady Eddy can come up some dough for the Airport Tunnel/Bridge project! What a sh*&%^t show that will ensue if something there doesn't happen soon! Speaking of Airport projects, what is going on with all the dirt being moved around on either side of McCall Way about half way between Art Smith Center and the 4 way stop at 78th Ave?

For piping related to the storm ponds they are building, AFAIK.

[YYCguys]

For piping related to the storm ponds they are building, AFAIK.

Thanks YNAT. Are the strom ponds related to the new runway construction?

[Xelebes]

-An Institution of Technology (one dedicated to engineering, perhaps?) gets announced for Vulcan.

[Vascilli]

1. The WLRT somehow gets delayed due to rich snobs complaining.
2. Housing market experiences catastrophic failure and I get a penthouse downtown for 100k.

[O-tacular]

The Bow continues its ascent skyward.

EAP runs into problems

The pedestrian bridges get a controversial modern design

Brentwood TOD continues to bow to NIMBYs

Rik McIVer resigns from public office to open an 1800's style orphanage where he can play scrooge ;)

[freeweed]

2. Housing market experiences catastrophic failure and I get a penthouse downtown for 100k.

Be careful what you wish for. A massive housing crash of that scale means we're either seeing 50% unemployment, or we're all working Timmy's wages. Neither option sounds particularly fun. ;)

[freeweed]

With oil on the edge of the magic $40 mark today, 2009 is going to bring some interesting times indeed.

I can't wait for the market to react to all this pullback in production, though. July of this year will be fun, but 2010 will really test the limits of credulity.

[Vascilli]

Be careful what you wish for. A massive housing crash of that scale means we're either seeing 50% unemployment, or we're all working Timmy's wages. Neither option sounds particularly fun. ;)

It doesn't affect me _quite_ as much because I'm 15. :haha: I have no job. (yet)

[freeweed]

It doesn't affect me _quite_ as much because I'm 15. :haha: I have no job. (yet)

Heh. As someone who entered the workforce during our last real recession in the early 90s, take it from me - you don't want things to get too bad right now, either. :P

[sauril]

Heh. As someone who entered the workforce during our last real recession in the early 90s, take it from me - you don't want things to get too bad right now, either. :P

I hear you there. I remember sending out over a hundred resumes after I graduated university, and getting one interview. They interviewed 30 people for 2 jobs. I didn't get one of them.

I tell that story to people in their late 20's and they just don't get it at all.

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