What is up with the census estimates?

[pip]

The census estimates Chicago losing 167,195 people in a two year period, from 2003 to 2005. Wow.

Can the census estimates prove to be any more unreliable?

Or is everyone worse fear coming true, Chicago is rapidly depopulating? I know the old mantra of the census being off by some 200,000 to 250,000 people in their estimates during the decade of the 90's not in Chicago's favor. Chicago gained 112,000 people and did not lose just over 100,000 people as was predicted.

But this is a whole other level. The census estimates that in two years, 2003 to 2005, Chicago lost 167,195 people and that from 1990 to 2000 Chicago lost just over 100,000. If you were to look at averages the census is estimating that Chicago is losing its population 7.5 times faster than their estimates in the 90's.

If Chicago's population is holding steady for this decade it would mean the the census estimate for the decade will be off by 836,000 people. Is that possible to be off by that much?




edit:

never mind.

2005 American Community Survey Data Profile Highlights vs QuickFacts Census Bureau. Both from the census. They have the United States losing population between 2003 and 2005 too.

[LMich]

I was about to ask if you were looking at the American Community Survey, which they've said themselves, is actually more a measurement of demographic changes than population changes.

Though the Census Bureau Estimates are flawed, they are a measure (however poor) of population change trends. The ACS doesn't even include group quarters (i.e. university populations, prison populations...)

[hudkina]

ACS is only in its infancy and once all the kinks are worked out is supposed to replace the traditional 10 year census data. It's only been around for a few years and hopefully in another 10 or 15 years it'll be far more accurate. Consider it in its "Beta" stage.;)

[MSPtoMKE]

Ahhh, I got an American Community Survey form (I'm 95% sure that was what it was) to send back a few months ago. In the week or so it took for me to fill it in and return it, i must have gotten like 3 or 4 notices in the mail reminding me to send it back...

Good to know my answers are helping generate such accurate results! ;)