Population Estimates (October 2006)

[harls]

http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/061221/d061221d.htm

Canada's population

Third quarter 2006 (preliminary)

The population of Alberta, in the midst of an unprecedented economic boom, rose at its fastest quarterly pace in 25 years between July and September.

Alberta's population grew by 1.12% during the third quarter to reach 3,413,500 as of October 1, 2006.

This rate of growth was more than three times the 0.33% increase in Canada's total population. As of October 1, 2006, Canada's population was estimated at 32,730,200, up 106,700 from July 1, 2006. (These estimates are based on 2001 Census counts adjusted for net census undercoverage to which is added the estimated demographic growth between May 15, 2001 and October 1, 2006.)

Alberta's economy is in the midst of the strongest period of economic growth ever recorded by any province, according to a study released this September in the Canadian Economic Observer.

Net gains in migration from other jurisdictions accounted for close to two-thirds of Alberta's demographic growth during the third quarter. Alberta recorded a net increase from interprovincial migration of 24,500, surpassing the previous high of 16,800 during the third quarter of 1980, another oil boom era.

Net interprovincial losses from Quebec and Ontario to Alberta were more than three times higher in the third quarter of 2006 compared to the same quarter in 2005. From July to September 2006, Ontario lost a net total of 12,800 people to Alberta, compared with 4,100 in the same three months last year. Quebec lost an estimated 2,900 to Alberta, up from 600.

http://farm1.static.flickr.com/129/329320713_1dfc83b565_o.jpg

Despite Alberta's booming economy, many people are moving out of the province as well. During the third quarter, an estimated 22,800 people left Alberta, compared with 16,800 in the same quarter last year. This was the highest third-quarter loss for Alberta since 23,600 in 1989.

While the majority of those leaving Alberta went to British Columbia, departures from Alberta have benefited Saskatchewan the most. Saskatchewan's net migration loss to Alberta in the third quarter this year was down by an estimated 1,300 people compared with the third quarter in 2005. That is because Saskatchewan received 3,700 migrants from Alberta between July and September, compared with only 2,400 in the same three months of 2005.

Quebec's population increased 0.23% in the third quarter, below the national average, as larger losses to interprovincial migration offset gains in natural growth and net international migration. In fact, Quebec's birth rate was above the national average for the first time since the beginning of the 1980s. Its international migration rate was the highest since 1992 for a third quarter.

For the first time since 1980, Ontario's third-quarter population increase was below the national average, notably as a result of negative net interprovincial migration. Without the benefit of the nation's highest immigration rate, Ontario would have incurred a net loss in population.

Besides Alberta, British Columbia was the only other jurisdiction showing both a net gain in interprovincial migration and a population growth higher than the national average. While it recorded a net loss to Alberta of 1,300 during the last quarter, British Columbia had a net gain of 3,400 persons from the rest of the country.

In the Atlantic provinces, only Prince Edward Island had positive net population growth. The other three Atlantic provinces, still affected by large net interprovincial migration losses and the lowest rate of natural increase in Canada, posted population decreases. For Nova Scotia, it was the first negative third quarter since 1971.

Available on CANSIM: tables 051-0005, 051-0006, 051-0017, 051-0020, 051-0037, 051-0045, 053-0001.

Definitions, data sources and methods: survey numbers, including related surveys, 3231, 3233 and 3601.

The publication Quarterly Demographic Estimates, Vol. 20, no. 3 (91-002-XWE, free) is now available online from the Publications module of our website.

To obtain additional data, or to enquire about the concepts, methods or data quality of this release, please contact Client Services (toll-free 1-866-767-5611 or 613-951-2320; fax: 613-951-2307; demography@statcan.ca), Demography Division.

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[circle33]

First time in a while we haven't lost population.

[Taller Better]

A 4 month snapshot during the summer is a pretty small window to guage much upon.

[habsfan]

In fact, Quebec's birth rate was above the national average for the first time since the beginning of the 1980s. Its international migration rate was the highest since 1992 for a third quarter.

Finally. we are fvcking more often and with less protection!!:tup: :haha:

[harls]

Finally. we are fvcking more often and with less protection!!:tup: :haha:


funny you should mention that..:shuffle:

[habsfan]

funny you should mention that..:shuffle:

I've been doing my part for 14 years now:cool: :cheers: :haha: , well with some protection, in one form or another!

[habsfan]

i read an article in La Presse last month where they were saying that there would be over 80,000 births in Québec in 2006, and maybe even more.

[caltrane74]

Ontario's population is going into the toilet tank. total population growth of only 35,000 in three months spells certain doom. And look at that chart of net out migration from Ontario to Alberta.

I'm helping my friend pack up to begin a new life in Alberta tommorrow.

I took a day off work to help her. So me taking the day off work to help my friend move to Alberta totally destroys any economic output from happening in the GTA tommorrow. And once my friend moves to alberta their economy will take off.

My friend told me she plans on making 300k a year working comm real estate in Calgary. Big joke. haha.

[Taller Better]

Ontario's population is going into the toilet tank. total population growth of only 35,000 in three months spells certain doom. And look at that chart of net out migration from Ontario to Alberta.

I'm helping my friend pack up to begin a new life in Alberta tommorrow.

I took a day off work to help her. So me taking the day off work to help my friend move to Alberta totally destroys any economic output from happening in the GTA tommorrow. And once my friend moves to alberta their economy will take off.

My friend told me she plans on making 300k a year working comm real estate in Calgary. Big joke. haha.

But obviously net out migration from Ontario to Alberta is being offset by international immigration to Ontario. Do you think that 35,000 in three months is doom? 140,000 a year is not exactly a doomsday scenario.
Don't forget, when things slow down in Alberta, a lot people tend to skitter back to the places in Canada were they came from before the boom. Lots of those "Eastern Bums" will be home within the decade! :D

[habsfan]

Don't forget, when things slow down in Alberta, a lot people tend to skitter back to the places in Canada were they came from before the boom. Lots of those "Eastern Bums" will be home within the decade!

Very true! I'm gonna have to agree with Taller, 35,000 in 3 months is actually pretty good for Ontario!

[feepa]

Don't forget, when things slow down in Alberta, a lot people tend to skitter back to the places in Canada were they came from before the boom. Lots of those "Eastern Bums" will be home within the decade! :D

Not that this isnt true, but this happens in every place. When places slow down, people move. You could say that things are slowing down in Ontario, as everything is slowing down there, and people are "skittering away" to a better place.

[caltrane74]

They way China and India are going right now. I dont think many new arrival people will be moving out of Alberta anytime soon.

35,000 in 3 months is not bad, but still Alberta added 38,000. Ontario is suppose to lead at all times when it comes to population and economic output, Alberta is uspurping the power from the juggernaught.

But in a sense its good, cause all those Ontarians leaving for alberta pushes up the prices for our labour. So getting a well paying job is getting easier and easier in this province(Ontario).

But in another sense its bad, Ontario has always relied on a rapidly growing population to support its Economy. With all this net out migration we could become indanger of losing our one true resource. which is People. We are now in a situation where we have to compete for people with Alberta. The feds may have to open up the flood gates to immigrants so we can at least stabilize our faultering economy. Our population growth is not even keeping up with the national average.

[big W]

Hey we increased 37,700 in 3 months. Of that Ontario, Quebec and BC provided 17,000. So Albertans mating and the 6 smaller provinces provided 20,700 people in 3 months, nothing to sneeze at as that alone puts us at the fastest growth rate nationally.

[big W]

But obviously net out migration from Ontario to Alberta is being offset by international immigration to Ontario. Do you think that 35,000 in three months is doom? 140,000 a year is not exactly a doomsday scenario.
Don't forget, when things slow down in Alberta, a lot people tend to skitter back to the places in Canada were they came from before the boom. Lots of those "Eastern Bums" will be home within the decade! :D

I agree with Ontario not exactly stagnating. But I think less than half those that did the move will be back soon. Once things slow down many will just stay in Alberta. That has been the experiences in the past.

One thing I wanna know actually is what is the average age of Albertans going to BC and British Columbians going to Alberta. I have a feeling that its the older seniors of Alberta moving west and the younger population moving east to Alberta.

[LeftCoaster]

Hey we increased 37,700 in 3 months. Of that Ontario, Quebec and BC provided 17,000. So Albertans mating and the 6 smaller provinces provided 20,700 people in 3 months, nothing to sneeze at as that alone puts us at the fastest growth rate nationally.

Umm what about 'international' migration?

[DrJoe]

I'd be interested to see the Ontario numbers split between north and south.

[LordMandeep]

Toronto is growing 25-30k a year, the city center it self.

Gta last time was around 100k a year. So it appears almost all of the growth is ine the golden horseshoe.

[vid]

I'd be interested to see the Ontario numbers split between north and south.

I know at least a dozen families that have moved to Alberta and three that have moved to BC in the past six months... Northern Ontario probably contributes a higher percent of it's population to Alberta, considering we just lost another 100 jobs to a saw mill shut down and the ads for skilled workers to go to Alberta outnumber the ads for skilled workers to stay here every day in the local news paper now. They're looking for everything from Oil rig people to construction workers to teachers and nurses.

[caltrane74]

Alberta is not just a threat to northern Ontario. Its wealth is also a big factor for those doing not too bad in the GTA too.

Like I said a lot of Toronto area people, not the really rich ones mind you, but just the average ones have gone out to Alberta to try their luck.

[Boris2k7]

My neighbours moved here from Missi last year... when their parents came out here to visit a few weeks ago they couldn't stop talking about how much they like the nature around here, and how there isn't anything like it anywhere near the GTA. Not to brag or anything... the family cited that they didn't like the lifestyle in the GTA and it was too hectic for them, so they came here. Not really because of jobs.

Of course there are the economic aspects as well. I curled with a woman who moved here with Imperial Oil.

[RWin]

funny you should mention that..:shuffle:

Do you have something to tell us?

[Bob_01]

Just decrease the immigration point system and we'll see significant population growth in Albert and Ontario.

Besides wouldn't it be nice if Calgary and Edmonton were at 6 million each? :D

[vid]

"Besides wouldn't it be nice if Calgary and Edmonton were at 6 million each?"

They'd be one city, like LA. And imagine the infrastructure problems in the downtown cores! Look at how much traffic is there now. Ok. Multiply it by 6.

My city can't even handle traffic on a normal day downtown, 660,000 people not work here.

Even if it was increased over 20 years, I can see both cities having a lot of traffic problems with that kind of population.

But it would be cool to have bigger cities.

[IntotheWest]

One thing I wanna know actually is what is the average age of Albertans going to BC and British Columbians going to Alberta. I have a feeling that its the older seniors of Alberta moving west and the younger population moving east to Alberta.

That would be very interesting to know...I know two friends that have picked up and moved their families from the Van area to Calgary in the last year (actually, before the house-prices really took off).

At the same time, I know several friends (mid-30s to mid-50s) that have bought property somewhere in BC (from East Kootenays, to Okanagan, to Van Island)...the older friends would likely move at some point.

[MolsonExport]

How long has it been since the growth rates for Quebec and Ontario were so similar?

[rrskylar]

9.9 million people in western Canada and 7.6 million people in Quebec, wonder when the federal politicians will notice?

[CanuckinTX]

At this rate Alberta could catch BC for 3rd place.

[Lobstick]

Ontario's population is going into the toilet tank. total population growth of only 35,000 in three months spells certain doom. And look at that chart of net out migration from Ontario to Alberta.

I'm helping my friend pack up to begin a new life in Alberta tommorrow.

I took a day off work to help her. So me taking the day off work to help my friend move to Alberta totally destroys any economic output from happening in the GTA tommorrow. And once my friend moves to alberta their economy will take off.

My friend told me she plans on making 300k a year working comm real estate in Calgary. Big joke. haha.

I can't wait until you move out here too... you know you want it!

[Lead]

At this rate Alberta could catch BC for 3rd place.
Yes eventually at this rate Alberta would catch BC but do you realise how long that would take. Plus after the Olympics more people are likely to move into the province as well increasing our rate. Still though I think it's important to get as many people out here in the west to balance the country better west vs east wise.

[someone123]

I don't really see why the country should be balanced out. It's not naturally balanced. BC, for example, is mostly uninhabitable.

In the same way, Canada's South is much more heavily populated than the North. It's not because the North is somehow being held back, it's because it's a frozen wasteland that is unappealing to humans and most other forms of life.

[Taller Better]

How long has it been since the growth rates for Quebec and Ontario were so similar?


who knows? This is a blip of a three month time frame over the summer. Frankly I am surprised people are reading so much into it.

[Waterlooson]

I don't really see why the country should be balanced out. It's not naturally balanced. BC, for example, is mostly uninhabitable.

In the same way, Canada's South is much more heavily populated than the North. It's not because the North is somehow being held back, it's because it's a frozen wasteland that is unappealing to humans and most other forms of life.

Tell that to the millions of caribou in the far north and to Fort Mc Murray - Canada's fastest growing community. :yes:

[harls]

who knows? This is a blip of a three month time frame over the summer. Frankly I am surprised people are reading so much into it.

that's true, but this here is a discussion forum after all.

[someone123]

that's true, but this here is a discussion forum after all.

This is SSP, where if you don't like the numbers you tell people to ignore them and if you like them you make a thread about it.

[feepa]

I don't really see why the country should be balanced out. It's not naturally balanced. BC, for example, is mostly uninhabitable.

In the same way, Canada's South is much more heavily populated than the North. It's not because the North is somehow being held back, it's because it's a frozen wasteland that is unappealing to humans and most other forms of life.

Ok, so what about Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Its definately not a frozen wasteland that is unappealing to humans ...

[someone123]

It is a question of degrees. The prairies are less wasteland-like than, say, Nunavut, but more wasteland-like than Southern Ontario. That is why they are more densely populated than the territories but less densely populated than some other areas.

In reality it's a little more complicated than that but, generally speaking, in order for a place to be successful, and assuming that it can trade with its neighbours, its population must be proportional to the number of people required to efficiently extract whatever resources it offers.

[Taller Better]

This is SSP, where if you don't like the numbers you tell people to ignore them and if you like them you make a thread about it.

Just out of curiosity, how do you feel about Nova Scotia's net population loss in this report? Do you think it is serious or just the result of a short time frame snapshot? For me, this has nothing to do with me "not liking the numbers". If anything I am surprised at the levels of immigration to Ontario and would have expected less. I was just questioning how many conclusions one can draw from a short three month summer period.

[Waterlooson]

Yes eventually at this rate Alberta would catch BC but do you realise how long that would take.

The answer is at current rates of growth, Alberta will exceed BC's population in under 9 years! :yes:

In 9 years Alberta's population will top 5 million (at the growth rate -annualized- listed on the chart).

[Waterlooson]

It is a question of degrees. The prairies are less wasteland-like than, say, Nunavut, but more wasteland-like than Southern Ontario. That is why they are more densely populated than the territories but less densely populated than some other areas.



Sorry, but you are off base. The prairies are not more wasteland-like than southern Ontario. The reason why Ontario has a much higher population is because that was where the jobs were.

[Doug]

Alberta has the most arable land of any province by a substantial margin. Assuming farmable land as an indicator of inhabitable land, it has the greatest population carrying capacity.

[Taller Better]

The answer is at current rates of growth, Alberta will exceed BC's population in under 9 years! :yes:

In 9 years Alberta's population will top 5 million (at the growth rate -annualized- listed on the chart).


Do you expect that the "current rates of growth" shown in these figures is going to continue unabated for the next 9 years?

[Waterlooson]

Do you expect that the "current rates of growth" shown in these figures is going to continue unabated for the next 9 years?

That is an excellent question.... I would think not, but I thought last year's growth rate would slow down.... the opposite happened... so who really knows? Not me! :haha:

[flatlander]

Does anyone know where i can get neighbourhood census stats more recent than StatsCans 2001? Or do i have to wait until next year when the 2006 comes out? StatsCan does some work in between censuses, don't they?

[zoomer]

The answer is at current rates of growth, Alberta will exceed BC's population in under 9 years! :yes:

In 9 years Alberta's population will top 5 million (at the growth rate -annualized- listed on the chart).

huh?!! What math are you using? Show us your calculation, I'd be interested to see it. I'm guessing that you're also assuming that BC will have Zero growth from this day forward as well?

[Stingray2004]

Another interesting tidbit: BC is attracting ~46% of international business immigrants to Canada compared to BC's 13.2% of Canadian population base.
_____________________________________________

B.C., Alberta only provinces to gain population

B.C.'s economic development ministry says B.C. has attracted 4,616 business immigrants in the first nine months this year

Bruce Constantineau, Vancouver Sun
Saturday, December 23, 2006

B.C. and Alberta were the only two Canadian provinces to attract more people than the number who left for other provinces during the third quarter this year, the provincial economic development ministry reported Friday.

The province also said B.C. continued to attract a major portion of the international business immigrants who moved to Canada during the same period, with 42.6 per cent of the total choosing B.C. During the first nine months this year, B.C. has attracted 4,616 business immigrants -- about 46 per cent of the national total.

The federal business immigration program seeks to attract experienced and financially independent business people to Canada.

The program has three categories -- investors (who must invest at least $400,000 to own and manage a Canadian business), entrepreneurs with a minimum net worth of $300,000 and self-employed persons who intend to be self-employed in Canada.

Beijing native Larry Chen, who moved to B.C. last month, said he has already decided the province is the "perfect place" for him to set up a business consultancy firm.

"The people here are very nice and quite welcoming to different cultures," he said.

Chen, 38, plans to establish a company that will help forge long-term links between entrepreneurs in Canada and China.

"The business community in China is a lot different than it was 10 or 15 years ago," he said. "People are looking to set up longterm relationships." Chen expects his wife and two young children will join him in Canada early next year.

Songhai Lin, a 31-year-old Malaysian entrepreneur who moved to B.C. from California last year, said he likes the environment and the weather in Vancouver.

The former Web developer, who lives with his wife in Delta, currently sells Asian jewelry online and hopes to open a store soon in a Vancouver or Richmond mall.

The economic development ministry said the population of B.C. rose to 4,310,452 people during the third quarter -- a 1.2-percent increase in the past year.

It said 21,867 Canadians moved to B.C. during the quarter while 19,742 left for other provinces, for a net gain of 2,125. Alberta posted a net inter-provincial gain of 24,535 people during the same period.

Credit Union Central of B.C. chief economist Helmut Pastrick said interprovincial migration to B.C. has posted modest gains since rebounding into positive territory in mid-2003. The province attracted 5,099 more people than the number who left during the first nine months of 2006, compared with 4,811 in all of 2005 and 7,077 in 2004.

© The Vancouver Sun 2006

[Waterlooson]

I'm guessing that you're also assuming that BC will have Zero growth from this day forward as well?

No, I'm assuming that BC will grow at the rate listed on the chart on page 1.


Here's a reference for you:


http://math2.org/math/general/interest.htm

"P = C (1 + r)^t"

You have P1 (for BC's future pop.) and P2 (for Alberta's future pop.).

Set P1 equal to P2, and substitute the current pop. for both provinces for C1 and C2, and the current growth rates (annualized) for r1 and r2. Then solve for t. t is the number of years required for Alberta and BC to achieve equal populations.

[The Chemist]

Alberta has the most arable land of any province by a substantial margin. Assuming farmable land as an indicator of inhabitable land, it has the greatest population carrying capacity.

Except for the major issue of water supply. Calgary especially is going to be in for serious water problems when the Bow Glacier is completely gone in 30 years or so.

[Waterlooson]

Except for the major issue of water supply. Calgary especially is going to be in for serious water problems when the Bow Glacier is completely gone in 30 years or so.

... but then places like the Region of Waterloo in southern Ontario have had big water issues for decades... they did quite a bit to promote water conservation... maybe Calgary should follow suit.

[zoomer]

No, I'm assuming that BC will grow at the rate listed on the chart on page 1.


Here's a reference for you:


http://math2.org/math/general/interest.htm

"P = C (1 + r)^t"

You have P1 (for BC's future pop.) and P2 (for Alberta's future pop.).

Set P1 equal to P2, and substitute the current pop. for both provinces for C1 and C2, and the current growth rates (annualized) for r1 and r2. Then solve for t. t is the number of years required for Alberta and BC to achieve equal populations.

ok, math was my least favourite topic, but if you have time, I'd love to see the year by year breakdown until Alberta passes BC, just for fun.

I'd be surprised if the population of Alberta passes B.C.'s in the next 30 years, but if the economy diversifies further in Alberta, coastal BC begins to experience flooding concerns due to melting ice caps, then I can see it happening. BC has a relatively small amount of land that is habitable due to the mountainous terrain covering most of the province, and if the Lower Mainland and Southern Vancouver Island are threatened by flooding or hit by a massive quake, then I could see people moving to Calgary or Edmonton, although some will settle in the BC interior. Ah, love these futuristic doomsday scenarios!

[Claeren]

... but then places like the Region of Waterloo in southern Ontario have had big water issues for decades... they did quite a bit to promote water conservation... maybe Calgary should follow suit.

They already are making progress (The best water AND waste treatment facilities in Canada/world), and will continue to make further progress.

Look at Australia. Huge water problems and they manage to grow adn sprawl just fine...

I think water concerns are a LOT graver in most of the world in fact, not everyone lives next to the Great Lakes.



Claeren.

[Waterlooson]

They already are making progress (The best water AND waste treatment facilities in Canada/world), and will continue to make further progress.

Look at Australia. Huge water problems and they manage to grow adn sprawl just fine...

I think water concerns are a LOT graver in most of the world in fact, not everyone lives next to the Great Lakes.

Claeren.

Yeah, water in Australia would be an huge issue - it is here in Cabo San Lucas.

Unlike London, K-W refused to build a pipeline to Lake Huron. They get 80%of their water from aquifers and 20% from the Grand River.

[Taller Better]

B.C., Alberta only provinces to gain population



Wow, amazing to completely ignore all immigration from outside the
country in order to create a misleading headline! Very Canadian....

[Waterlooson]

ok, math was my least favourite topic, but if you have time, I'd love to see the year by year breakdown until Alberta passes BC, just for fun.


Come on now zoomer, put on your thinking cap (looks like you have it on already) and do some of the work yourself.... I already took the time to show you how. You have homework now. :whip:

[Lead]

Do they have any population estimates for any of the major cities as well?

[samne]

I'm quite happy to see more people migrate to BC and Alberta. Its getting too crowded over here, relatively speaking.

I'd like to see BC and Alberta improve on immigration numbers and not just business class.

[ReginaGuy]

its good to see that less people are moving from Saskatchewan to Alberta, and more Albertans are moving back to Saskatchewan. I hope that trend continues

[ReginaGuy]

Do they have any population estimates for any of the major cities as well?

nope, population data from the 2006 census won't be available until March 13, 2007

[caltrane74]

We are in the midst of the most amazing population transformation this country has ever seen.

I find it quite interesting. Cause when you look at the big picture, Ontario is not doing that bad economically. Just not as well as Alberta. And thats the rub.

[zoomer]

Come on now zoomer, put on your thinking cap (looks like you have it on already) and do some of the work yourself.... I already took the time to show you how. You have homework now. :whip:

hey, it's christmas break, no homework for me thanks!! :D

[LordMandeep]

All i know Calgary is past a million and Toronto is past 2.6 million.

[Taller Better]

All i know Calgary is past a million and Toronto is past 2.6 million.

And more than double that with the metropolitan area.

[vincebjs]

It would be interesting to know which municipalities are growing the fastest

I mean, Alberta is growing at 1.12% every four months, but which towns and cities are experiencing the most growth and therefore the biggest labor/infrastructure crunch?

[malek]

^^ in pct wise, it was three small towns around Montreal for 2005, which is surprising.

Mirabel, Mascouche and Saint-Lin

[Waterlooson]

I mean, Alberta is growing at 1.12% every four months, but which towns and cities are experiencing the most growth and therefore the biggest labor/infrastructure crunch?

No, Alberta is growing at 1.12% every three months (July 1 - Oct1).

[digitboy]

It would be interesting to know which municipalities are growing the fastest

I mean, Alberta is growing at 1.12% every four months, but which towns and cities are experiencing the most growth and therefore the biggest labor/infrastructure crunch?

Fort McMurray must be #1 city for growth

FORT McMURRAY

Over 60% of Wood Buffalo’s population increase was observed within Fort McMurray. The oilsands hub absorbed 3,458 more residents over the past year, shifting its population from 60,983 to 64,441 – a growth rate of 5.7%. In comparison, Fort McMurray grew by 8.7% between 2004 and 2005.

Fort McMurray’s population can be further broken down into permanent and shadow populations. In 2004 and 2005, 990 and 2,601 people were considered non-permanent residents respectively. This resulted in a permanent population of 55,121 in 2004 and 58,382 in 2005. Fort McMurray recorded its shadow population at 2,301 in 2006, leaving its current permanent population at 62,140.

[caltrane74]

I wonder what percentage of the female population in Fort Mac is hookers?

[Wooster]

^75% give or take? ( I include strippers in this number too)

[LordMandeep]

Brampton went from 325k to 435k in 5 years. Where are the news stories for that considering its quite a normal economic situation here.

thats like a 5% rate growth for a place of that size.

[ssiguy]

I'm rather surprised to see Alberta maintain and even increase it's dizzying growth rate. If that were to continue that is a whopping 4.5%/year.
Although these rates cannot be maintained I think certainly by 2025 Alberta will be Canada's most populace province.
What I find even more surprising is the national growth rate.
It works to 1.4%/year, a very fast rate.

It is also important to note that even provinces grow most towns/small cities/rural areas are shrinking as the country becomes increasingly urban.

Ontario's growth rate is actually below the national average but London is growing faster now than it has at anytime since the mid-80s.

[eemy]

The Region of Waterloo was planning for a water pipeline from Lake Huron by the time the population reaches 700000 people, which they were predicting for 2041 or so. With the Places to Grow Act in Ontario, the Ontario Gov't has fast tracked that number ten years earlier to 2031, so I expect they'll be starting planning for the pipeline within the next ten years.

[caltrane74]

I'm rather surprised to see Alberta maintain and even increase it's dizzying growth rate. If that were to continue that is a whopping 4.5%/year.
Although these rates cannot be maintained I think "certainly" by 2025 Alberta will be Canada's most populace province.
What I find even more surprising is the national growth rate.
It works to 1.4%/year, a very fast rate.

It is also important to note that even provinces grow most towns/small cities/rural areas are shrinking as the country becomes increasingly urban.

Ontario's growth rate is actually below the national average but London is growing faster now than it has at anytime since the mid-80s.


So in 18 Years Alberta will have 17 Million people?

[habsfan]

So in 18 Years Alberta will have 17 Million people?

Yeah, that's about it!;) :rolleyes:

[malek]

So in 18 Years Alberta will have 17 Million people?

no, one hundred billion people:haha:

[graupner]

So in 18 Years Alberta will have 17 Million people?

Probably not, but it could be at about 7-8 millions (depending on so many factors that this is like forecasting the weather 3 years from now)

[Waterlooson]

I'm rather surprised to see Alberta maintain and even increase it's dizzying growth rate. If that were to continue that is a whopping 4.5%/year.
Although these rates cannot be maintained I think certainly by 2025 Alberta will be Canada's most populace province.
What I find even more surprising is the national growth rate.
It works to 1.4%/year, a very fast rate.

It is also important to note that even provinces grow most towns/small cities/rural areas are shrinking as the country becomes increasingly urban.

Ontario's growth rate is actually below the national average but London is growing faster now than it has at anytime since the mid-80s.

Am I the only one who can do math here? :shrug:

At the population growth rates (annualized) listed on the pg. 1 chart, it would take 40 years for Alberta to match (then exceed) Ontario's population.... so it isn't until late 2046 that Alberta would exceed Ontario's population.

[Waterlooson]

Probably not, but it could be at about 7-8 millions (depending on so many factors that this is like forecasting the weather 3 years from now)

Yes, at current growth rates (see the chart) Alberta's population would be 7.5 million in 18 years. In 40 years Alberta would have 19.6 million (same as Ontario).

[harls]

no, one hundred billion people:haha:

http://arbyte.us/blog_archive/2005/11/drevil_million_dollars.jpg

[caltrane74]

Am I the only one who can do math here? :shrug:

At the population growth rates (annualized) listed on the pg. 1 chart, it would take 40 years for Alberta to match (then exceed) Ontario's population.... so it isn't until late 2046 that Alberta would exceed Ontario's population.

And thats assuming oil is the same commodity 50 years in the future which it is now.

Weather forcasting 1 week into the future is hard enough. We cannot forcast growth rates 50 years into the future cause we dont know whats gonna happen between now and then.

[caltrane74]

Yes, at current growth rates (see the chart) Alberta's population would be 7.5 million in 18 years. In 40 years Alberta would have 19.6 million (same as Ontario).


These current growth rates will not be maintained for 40 years. Ontario is in its slowest growth ever since before World War II. So give me a break if you think its gonna stay this way for long.

[CMD UW]

Oh f*ck, Alberta WILL NEVER, NEVER catch up to the population of Ontario....not a chance. We'll be lucky to catch Quebec or even B.C. Bring out all of the stats you want, but it ain't gonna happen.

[graupner]

Am I the only one who can do math here? :shrug:

.

EYh you're not :D , 3 months left to my Bsc in maths/actuary and starting a Master in Financial Mathematics in September. Do you study in maths too?


First, the following calculations have no real value, since the growth rate is only given for a month and it is therefore impossible to generalise them. The mean growth rate of the past 3 years would have been much better/

For those interested in the calculations, here are the details:

I decided to compare Alberta and Quebec and calculate how much time until Alberta catches up Quebec.

First, annualize the growth rates:
Alberta: (1.0112)^12 = 1.1429
Quebec: (1.0023)^12 = 1.0279


Let n be the number of years until Alberta catches up Quebec, then:

3,413,500x(1.1429)^n = 7,669,100x(1.0329)^n

Using the natural logarythm ln(x), we take the exp. down, then:

ln(3,413,500) + n x ln(1.1429) = ln(7,669,100) + n x ln(1.0329)

We find that:

n = 7.998 = 8

At the current rythm, Alberta will catch up Quebec in 8 years !!!!

This is higly impossible tough, the annualized rate gives about 14% for Alberta, and I think in reality it is closer to 8%, which is still very good.

[malek]

The economy has to grow more than that % to create that many jobs for people to move in.

[caltrane74]

EYh you're not :D , 3 months left to my Bsc in maths/actuary and starting a Master in Financial Mathematics in September. Do you study in maths too?


First, the following calculations have no real value, since the growth rate is only given for a month and it is therefore impossible to generalise them. The mean growth rate of the past 3 years would have been much better/

For those interested in the calculations, here are the details:

I decided to compare Alberta and Quebec and calculate how much time until Alberta catches up Quebec.

First, annualize the growth rates:
Alberta: (1.0112)^12 = 1.1429
Quebec: (1.0023)^12 = 1.0279


Let n be the number of years until Alberta catches up Quebec, then:

3,413,500x(1.1429)^n = 7,669,100x(1.0329)^n

Using the natural logarythm ln(x), we take the exp. down, then:

ln(3,413,500) + n x ln(1.1429) = ln(7,669,100) + n x ln(1.0329)

We find that:

n = 7.998 = 8

At the current rythm, Alberta will catch up Quebec in 8 years !!!!

This is higly impossible tough, the annualized rate gives about 14% for Alberta, and I think in reality it is closer to 8%, which is still very good.

Mathguy are you listening to yourself type. In what "reality" do (275,000 people) 8% of the current ,move to Alberta on an annual basis. What kind of degree are you getting again?; what school is giving them away?

[graupner]

Mathguy are you listening to yourself type. In what "reality" do (275,000 people) 8% of the current ,move to Alberta on an annual basis. What kind of degree are you getting again?; what school is giving them away?

Feel better now that you plugged your stupid little comment?? The post wasn't adressed to you.
Coming from someone who is "a dancing machine at the club", I'll just keep my opinion on you for myself, but I can pretty well picture the pretentious self-in-love clubber looser.
I first said these calculations had no value since I don't know the real growth rate and based the calculus on the monthly october stats.
As for the 8%, that's what I read on an alberta promotion website, and tought it could very well be true with the current boom in Calgary and Fort McMurray. If it isn't true, who cares?
As for my education, I'm completing a Bsc in Coop maths/actuaries at Universite de Montreal, and I was awarded a 12,000$ scholarship to start a master in financial maths, more specifically in research on neural networks between stochastic and more predictive events in the insurance sector.
And what about you? You hold a degree in club dancing? Did you also get a minor in creatin? I heard it can pretty well boost your chance to get hot chicks and shit on the weekend, probably changes one's mind from the boring advertising job.

[Waterlooson]

And thats assuming oil is the same commodity 50 years in the future which it is now.

No, that's assuming (one hell of a big assumption to be sure) that current growth rates are maintained - plain and simple.

Weather forcasting 1 week into the future is hard enough. We cannot forcast growth rates 50 years into the future cause we dont know whats gonna happen between now and then.

Agreed, no one here expects growth rates to remain the same..... I was just saying if......

[Waterlooson]

These current growth rates will not be maintained for 40 years. Ontario is in its slowest growth ever since before World War II. So give me a break if you think its gonna stay this way for long.

Okay, now tell me something that I don't know. :rolleyes:

[Waterlooson]

Oh f*ck, Alberta WILL NEVER, NEVER catch up to the population of Ontario....not a chance. We'll be lucky to catch Quebec or even B.C. Bring out all of the stats you want, but it ain't gonna happen.

I have to agree with you regarding Ontario and Quebec.... but you are likely wrong about Alberta not exceeding BC's population at sometime in the future. I'll bet that will occur within the next 25 years.... but of course, no one knows what the future will bring.

[Waterlooson]

EYh you're not :D , 3 months left to my Bsc in maths/actuary and starting a Master in Financial Mathematics in September. Do you study in maths too?


First, the following calculations have no real value, since the growth rate is only given for a month and it is therefore impossible to generalise them. The mean growth rate of the past 3 years would have been much better/

For those interested in the calculations, here are the details:

I decided to compare Alberta and Quebec and calculate how much time until Alberta catches up Quebec.

First, annualize the growth rates:
Alberta: (1.0112)^12 = 1.1429
Quebec: (1.0023)^12 = 1.0279


Let n be the number of years until Alberta catches up Quebec, then:

3,413,500x(1.1429)^n = 7,669,100x(1.0329)^n

Using the natural logarythm ln(x), we take the exp. down, then:

ln(3,413,500) + n x ln(1.1429) = ln(7,669,100) + n x ln(1.0329)

We find that:

n = 7.998 = 8

At the current rythm, Alberta will catch up Quebec in 8 years !!!!

This is higly impossible tough, the annualized rate gives about 14% for Alberta, and I think in reality it is closer to 8%, which is still very good.


The last time I took a math course in university was way back in 1975, but I scored 98%.... so I'm no mathematician, but I was no slouch either. :banana:

I also came up with a unique solution for the problem of obliquely crossed cylinders in geometrical optics, and did a research project in optometry that was very heavy in math .... using mathematical modeling in a unique way .... prof asked me if a mark of 98% would be okay with me, and told me he thought I deserved 100% but that the other profs might not understand :haha:

I used the same method you showed, except with log base 10, rather than the natural log..... of course that doesn't matter. You said the growth rate is for one month, actually it's for 3 months (quarterly figures).... In other words, your method is correct, but your result is wrong.

[WhipperSnapper]

not this idiotic growth rate crap

considering growth rate is based on current population bases and immigration/migration/birth rates are fairly constant , I don't see how anyone can beleive that Alberta when at twice the population won't have near .5 of the rate it has now

[Greco Roman]

Alberta's population is growing

Ontario's population is growing.

Most provinces populations are growing.

Case solved! :D

[LordMandeep]

Don't forget! Growth rates slow down especially with population when the population gets really big (when it doubles).

Yes i think in ten years it can switch, and in 20 years it goes back to the same. So Calgary grows by 30k and Toronto (city) grows by 30k in one year, just because Calgary grew faster percentage wise does not mean it will be overtaken Toronto in 2 or 3 decades...

[Waterlooson]

not this idiotic growth rate crap

considering growth rate is based on current population bases and immigration/migration/birth rates are fairly constant , I don't see how anyone can beleive that Alberta when at twice the population won't have near .5 of the rate it has now

Circa 1950, Calgary's population was < 150,000 IIRC. So by your "logic", when Calgary's population doubled to 300,000, its growth rate should have slowed by 50 % - that's not what happened, because there was no logically reason why it should have.... and there is no definitive reason why it has to now.

[Waterlooson]

Don't forget! Growth rates slow down especially with population when the population gets really big (when it doubles).


You should have explained that to the Chinese when China's population doubled to 100,000,000. Now at 1.3 billion, you're a little late at reminding them. :D

[malek]

from 2001 to 2006, the average annual growth rate is:
AB: 2%, BC: 1.1%, ON: 1.3%, QC: 0.7%

At that sustained growth rate, in 28 years, Alberta will overtake BC with 5.877M, in 64 years it will overtake Quebec with 11,989M and....

hold your breath,

in 193 years, it will overtake Ontario with 154,244M

hahahaha :-)

[Waterlooson]

from 2001 to 2006, the average annual growth rate is:
AB: 2%, BC: 1.1%, ON: 1.3%, QC: 0.7%

At that sustained growth rate, in 28 years, Alberta will overtake BC with 5.877M, in 64 years it will overtake Quebec with 11,989M and....

hold your breath,

in 193 years, it will overtake Ontario with 154,244M

hahahaha :-)

I just checked AB vs. BC using your growth figures..... Alberta would exceed BC's population in 24 years.

In the future, Quebec could go insane and decide to separate.... then have negative population growth and end up with only 5 million people 30 years down the road. ;)

[eemy]

This thread is ridiculous. Personally I expect Alberta will surpass BC in the next fifty years, mainly because it has two very strong large cities, and BC has only one. This can easily change though, and I expect that cities in the Okanogan, especially Kelowna, will have strong economic growth in the future and could upset the balance.

Firstly, those of you trying to apply a mathematic approach - the system you're modeling is far more complex than you're using. The Region of Waterloo's growth model is based on hundreds of different variables. At the very least, a basic model should take into account the various cohorts in the population, those cohorts changing birth and death rates, patterns of migration amongst those cohorts, and economic and infrastructure considerations. Those are all fundamental factors in influencing population growth.

Yeah, that's too hard to figure out here, so guess what - it's already been done for us. Using Statscan Data, there are six scenarios over the next 25 years. None of them predict Alberta surpassing BC in population. Scenario 5 predicts it coming within 500,000 by 2031, and Scenario 4 predicts a 2.1 million spread between them. You can check their site to see what the different scenarios are. (http://www.statcan.ca/english/freepub/91-520-XIE/00105/tablesectionlist.htm)

Forecast Popn for 2031

Scenario 1
Alberta: 3924.9
BC: 5047.2

Scenario 2
Alberta: 4390.9
BC: 4993.0

Scenario 3
Alberta: 4144.9
BC: 5502.9

Scenario 4
Alberta: 3891.6
BC: 6062.4

Scenario 5
Alberta: 4543.4
BC: 5029.6

Scenario 6
Alberta: 4402.8
BC: 5943.6

All of that, and population projections are still extremely political. That is why, despite a declining population over the last 20 years or so, Sudbury is still predicting population growth and planning for it. And that's why the Ministry of Finance predicts growth in Northern Ontario even though there hasn't been any in ages. It's not politically expedient to tell people there cities and towns are going to disappear.

[MolsonExport]

http://arbyte.us/blog_archive/2005/11/drevil_million_dollars.jpg


:jester:

[caltrane74]

Feel better now that you plugged your stupid little comment?? The post wasn't adressed to you.
Coming from someone who is "a dancing machine at the club", I'll just keep my opinion on you for myself, but I can pretty well picture the pretentious self-in-love clubber looser.
I first said these calculations had no value since I don't know the real growth rate and based the calculus on the monthly october stats.
As for the 8%, that's what I read on an alberta promotion website, and tought it could very well be true with the current boom in Calgary and Fort McMurray. If it isn't true, who cares?
As for my education, I'm completing a Bsc in Coop maths/actuaries at Universite de Montreal, and I was awarded a 12,000$ scholarship to start a master in financial maths, more specifically in research on neural networks between stochastic and more predictive events in the insurance sector.
And what about you? You hold a degree in club dancing? Did you also get a minor in creatin? I heard it can pretty well boost your chance to get hot chicks and shit on the weekend, probably changes one's mind from the boring advertising job.

Well at least you admitted you were wrong.

On the personal and professional side you got me almost too a tee. Except I love my job. (trust me advertising is not boring, its a pretty glam job I must admit. And not half as boring as the math job you have the pleasure of looking forward to when you get out of school.)

[malek]

I just checked AB vs. BC using your growth figures..... Alberta would exceed BC's population in 24 years.

In the future, Quebec could go insane and decide to separate.... then have negative population growth and end up with only 5 million people 30 years down the road. ;)

I think I used beginning or mid 2006 population figures, which was a big boom year for alberta. That half or full year of population increase might have affected the final result by 4 years... which shows how volatile things can be :)

[Taller Better]

This thread is ridiculous. .

Ah yes! But don't forget these are the Canada forums! :D